Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've always believed that we were experiencing a cyclical bear market and a normal bear market until 10,000 stupid hedge funds went into an unprecedented emotional panic. That means we had a cyclical bear inside a mega trend secular bull market. This bull market may have another seven years to run if this is truly a new leg that is starting. We'll have to be cognizant of the Kress cycles that will be due in 2014 - 2015. But all bulls have corrections to refresh. I'm a cycle rider and am staying long for the duration. I may start trading my tugboat though when the time is right.

 

[Handballer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I frankly would not be at all surprised today if we really squeeze some shorts after 1500 hours and send this market to close up 450 points. MindyLou says watch for it. If that happens that should cut me some slack on the tracker.

You are the man. You appear to be the superstar on these boards. I think you do very well this year on the tracker.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'd hang on to that AIG position - they may end up spinning off some of their businesses to their shareholders. I still have my position intact. I would like to break to the zero line on the tracker before the month ends. With me it's the old story - no pain no gain.

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree....I'm glad the market went up...I bought in too soon....around 830 and maybe around 860 I've broken even. Was in G fund prior but didn't want to miss out on the upswing. I know the ride will be bumpy and this rise is not by far the end. Although I think we saw the bottom just awhile back and wished I could have bought in then. But then I would have missed all the suspense and buildup. Good Luck to all...may we all prosper.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We could easily see SPX at 943.85 which is the January 6th high by the end of the week or the first two days in next week. I'm reminded that there were at least 18 moves on the downside where the SPX was greater than 50 points - now we may see more of those 50 point moves to the upside. I'd be in favor of a 70 point move to the upside tomorrow - just to create a level of anxiety in the bears as well as lily padders. My sacrifice is that I end up paying more for my dividend reinvestments.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Congrats Birch, on a huge day! You have the most posts today, so you know it was a nice day for stocks.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Congrats Birch, on a huge day! You have the most posts today, so you know it was a nice day for stocks.

We only read on Down days, but we post on Up days ! :nuts:

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We could easily see SPX at 943.85 which is the January 6th high by the end of the week or the first two days in next week. I'm reminded that there were at least 18 moves on the downside where the SPX was greater than 50 points - now we may see more of those 50 point moves to the upside. I'd be in favor of a 70 point move to the upside tomorrow - just to create a level of anxiety in the bears as well as lily padders. My sacrifice is that I end up paying more for my dividend reinvestments.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

According to Bloomberg today apparently capped the biggest 10 day rally since 1938. We've now had 11 of those 400 point up days during the current bear market. Does it really mean anything - probably not.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

According to Bloomberg today apparently capped the biggest 10 day rally since 1938. We've now had 11 of those 400 point up days during the current bear market. Does it really mean anything - probably not.

Best Days of the Dow (% Gain)

1 15.3% March 15, 1933
2 14.9% October 6, 1931
3 12.3% October 30, 1929
4 11.1% October 13, 2008
5 10.1% October 21, 1987
6 9.5% August 3, 1932
7 9.5% February 11, 1932
8 9.4% November 14, 1929
9 9.4% December 18, 1931
10 9.2% February 13, 1932

#3 was the day after the great crash of 1929.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well believe it or not I'm still bullish. It was nice to see a big $K day for a change - I could use a little more. We'll be down in the open and probably green by noon time giving us eight positive days out of the last eleven trading days. If I'm wrong I'll continue to be patient and keep those dividends working.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree Bullish- We would not have it any other way.
Nice quiet green day today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Long term investor buy signal alert. Over the past several years, this indicator has predicted several 100-point or more moves in the S&P. There are only 2 to 3 of these signals every year, so they're worth paying attention to. This is an ideal signal for investors to put cash to work following a down move in the market. A long term investor buy signal has been issued on March 18, 2009."

http://safehaven.com/article-12908.htm

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I can only guess and I think the rally will continue till dow reaches 8k. I'm still in 100% stock.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yesterday's 497 pop was the fifth biggest point gain in the Dow's history. The Dow is now up 1,228 points, or 18.8 percent, from March 9th, when it finished at its lowest point in nearly 12 years, although it's still down 1,000 points in 2009. The S&P 500 is up 21.6 percent from March 9th. If we continue to rally intio June we could approach the 200 day MA at Dow 9618 and the SPX 200 day MA at 1031. I'm cautious watching the sticky VIX. But I believe it will break its' 200 day MA at 41.02 real soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Richard Russell says, "In bear markets, corrections against the primary direction tend to arrive without warning and are very rapid, often recovering in a week the bear market damage of a few months. Part of the attraction of a bear market rally is the speed of the advance. This makes the rally doubly attractive and allows those still in the market the fantasy of recouping their losses in short order." Some folks see this rally as a trap but I'm not of that opinion. I, however, would like to see a 30% rise in the DJIA in 50 calendar days and then I'm fully comfortable with this new upward leg turning into a new cyclical bull market.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

But isn't a Bear Market Rally still a Bear Market? Thus, unless trading in and out, the expectation is that one will see a lower low so the thrill of the moment is that...the thrill of the moment. Few of the talking heads are claiming the Bear Market is over, it seems.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's true but the bear market has to end at some point - the question is when. That's what makes our current investing environment so interesting and a challenge. Those that hang back will pay a price in lost potential profit. If the VIX would start to weaken I'd feel better - the VIX continues to be range bound and the 40 area continues to hold support.

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

looks like we will be back in green soon. hope we stay there today

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Historically, 80% of the time we get a big day the next day is flat - that may happen today, But I'd prefer at least a 100 or 200 point gain in the next two hours. That would put me in like Flint.