Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Analysts who have seen the market's recent false starts are still hesitant to say Wall Street is indeed recovering from the collapse that began last fall - Yes because this IS a Stealth Stocks Bull Market and that is HOW Wall Street analysts and small investors are expected to behave so that they MISS the first 20%, 30%, 40% perhaps 50% and then are left waiting for the second coming....The Retest."

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/walayat/2009/0324.html

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Long term investor buy signal alert. Over the past several years, this indicator has predicted several 100-point or more moves in the S&P. There are only 2 to 3 of these signals every year, so they're worth paying attention to. This is an ideal signal for investors to put cash to work following a down move in the market. A long term investor buy signal has been issued on March 18, 2009."

http://safehaven.com/article-12908.htm

So I guess the rally we just had a day or two ago...was the signal rally....or are you saying there is another one on the way?

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

3/24/2009
US Recession to Stretch Well into 2010
- CNBC

3/24/2009
China May Press G-20 to Guard Its U.S. Assets
- Bloomberg

3/24/2009
U.S. Losses Take a Personal Toll on Investors
- USA Today

3/24/2009
U.S. Seeks Expanded Power to Seize Firms
- Washington Post

3/24/2009
Fears of Record Hedge Fund Withdrawals
- Financial Times

3/24/2009
Number of Small-Biz Loans Plunge by Roughly 50%
- Buffalo News

3/24/2009
GM, Chrysler Could Make March Sales Decline 43%
- Detroit Free Press

3/24/2009
Car Dealers Face Extinction
- CNN Money

3/24/2009
Some Area Malls Shorten Their Hours
- Baltimore Sun

3/24/2009
Bi-Lo Chain Files for Bankruptcy
- Charlotte Observer

3/24/2009
Universal Records Large 4th Quarter Profit Drop
- Orlando Sentinel

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So we had a better than expected durable goods orders and a big jump in mortgage applications - the news is getting less bad. The market does not turn when it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, (just read the previous post) but just a subtle shade less black than the day before. Hesitation in this climate can be costly. Portfolio managers warn of a possible additional leg down in the markets that should keep investors from going all-in before more tangible signs of a true rebound occur. 840 is the 100 day MA of the SPX and is ready to crumble to the horns next.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently the DJIA is up 163 points in the first 45 minutes - anyone open for another 200 points on top of that before we close?

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Personally, I'm open for anything above +1 but I would not sneeze at another 497

 

[marcel54]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I went from 100% G to 50% G, 25% C and 25% S last week so another good up day would be nice. I'll be almost back to where I was Nov 2007!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Jimmy Cricketts, I spent three hours last evening crunching my schedule D for capital gains trades thinking I'd come out around +140K - but low and behold the figure is closer to $169K. Now what am I going to do? I'll have to call my masseuse for help. Currently the IRS gets a 1099 on the gross proceeds so they know how much you sold but fortunately they have no idea what you paid. That is going to change in 2011 - they'll have everything so even a masseuse won't help ease the pain.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like today may be a crow eating day - oh well I'm used to eating crow.

"We really seem to be climbing a wall of worry this time, which wasn't the case during the earlier bear market rallies we've seen. The axiom among long time traders is that lasing rallies require a healthy number of skeptics on the sidelines to act as a reservior of new buyers to fuel gains overtime. I'd like to see the VIX get down around 37.50 before I start to worry that we're in an overbought condition in the stock market."

http://www.marketwatch.com Bulls Stretch Legs by Peter McKay

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well shucks no crow after all - may have to go to Steak and Shake tonight and check on traffic. 90 points in 20 minutes ain't bad in my book.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pretty good considering at 3:30 this thing looked like a jetliner with all engines out.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like 825 continues to be a stone wall.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's simply intraday backing and filling - the longer it may take the better the NYSE looks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm insatiable when it comes to the sweet smell of superlative bull manure - let's really ramp up the volume and set this puppy on fire today. Do I dare use words like vicious anbd ferocious when talking about this rally - no the best policy is to remain incognito and not attract attention. Buy the TNA - Small Cap Bull 3X for some action. I know we can blame it on the Kress 6-year cycle. I remember that in 1982 the Dow made a 25% gain in 40 trading days - we'll have that percentage probably by the end of day tomorrow and that's what 15 days of trading.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The number of shorts has increased by 11% as of mid-March - oh I like it, spring the bear trap.

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nasdaq was at 5000 in 2000 b4 the tech market crashed. It's at 1560 now and I think it will take at least 10 years more to rise over 5k again. Dow and SP500 dropped 40%+ since the last year when financial market crashed. I think 20% gain in 2 weeks is not normal and dow will stay low, perhaps somewhere inbetween 8 and 10k for very long time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Please keep spreading the good word - this market certainly has no credibility - but watch the bears get crushed in their own traps. It's so dangerous out here in the wilderness where only renagade contrarians dare to rumble with the bears.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ed Yardeni says, "The S&P on Wednesday closed at 813.88, leaving it roughly 22% above its intraday bear market low of 666 on March 6. I think this relief rally could retest the Jan. 6 intraday high for the year of 943.85. That's another 16% higher from yesterday's close, and 41.6% above the 666 low." Did the VIX close below its' 200 day MA at 41.03?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A 30% rise of the SPX would be at the January 28th level of 878 - we could nail that level by April 1st. And 943.85 will fall to the horns next.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"In the last 9 years, the Dow has only traded twice bellow its 99 day EMA (exponential moving average), and each time it did, it mounted a very strong rally. From Oct. 1973 to Oct. 1974, the Dow traded 34% below its 99 EMA and 9 months later it rallied over 50% from its lows and eventually went to trade well above its 99 EMA. Is it just a coincidence that as of the 9th (March) the Dow is now trading 34.5% below its 99 EMA, will the Dow mount a rally in the same way it did back in 1974?" Sure seems that way. Snort.

http://safehaven.com/article-12932.htm