Birchtree's Account Talk

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

If I share you won't get mad at me will you? Before the opening this morning the oceanic was up $15K on the week - I'll know what I made today when Merrill updates my account in the morning. I would speculate that I'm somewhere close to $30K on the day because of the breadth. Now I know you can put me to shame but that's OK because I'm still growing and learning and the market is both opportunity builder and slayer. If you'd like to take a look at my individual holdings they are listed in the short term before Christmas thread. One of my past nemesis has called my account into question - but he's so full of malignities he's borderline pathetic frothing with jealousy. But he does hold an esteemed moderator position in our microcosm so I remain respectful of his position.

I promise I'm not mad. There is absolutely no reason to get mad. 118.5 today and 213.4 for the entire picture (trust, etc.) this week. 1% for the week so I can't complain.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I knew I was in over my head but that just gives me further incentive to push forward - the markets are equal opportunity providers. All one has to do is learn before the churn. Yesterday my oceanic took in $27K and I'm now up $42K on the week. I'm thinking next week might be even better. I'm sure sorry to see those $16.00 prices in the C fund gone forever but one can't stand in the way of progress. I suspect I'll be exiting my I fund position the closer we get to $26.00 - I'm in for the second round trip at $22.38.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As long as Griffin and I are offering full disclosure there was another post that was deleted. I made a statement after he asked me not to post in his busy thread. I said: "Your malignities never end. I knew you had another motive." That's all folks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

To summarise Bullit, money markets assets are at record levels. The current U.S. negativity bubble has left massive bull firepower on the sidelines as the supply of stock remains low and the macro backdrop for investing continues to be very positive, which bodes very well for further outsized gains.

"Dollar-speculating investors are piling into multinationals listed on the U.S. exchanges. The play here is based on these multinationals generating large earnings abroad with strong currencies. As the dollar is falling, this boosts stated profits denominated in U.S. dollars. Companies which are primarily export driven are likewise benefiting from bullish sentiment as a weak dollar is giving a big boost to U.S. exports."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2007/1006.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From my friends at Merrill by Mary Ann Bartels - TA

"In September the ASIR (adjusted short interest ratio) dropped from 1.3 standard deviations to -0.97 standard deviations below its historical average. More important, after adjusting for the upward bias in short levels readings, the ASIR moved to record low levels. Short levels no longer put a floor on price for the market. MZM growth remains robust and this may be the new floor. Throughout time, the growth in monetary aggregates has provided a favorable liquidity backdrop for equities. MZM growth rates reached levels that are often associated with a market rally. This, combined with the recent cuts in the discount rate and fed funds rate, may be the new pricing floor for the equity markets.

Sector price behavior is saying that the economy is transitioning from a consumer driven economy to an industrial driven economy. This is seen in the relative leadership in the Energy, Industrials and Materials sectors on a global scale. The last time the U.S. had an industrial led cycle was in 1950s - 1960s."

It does look more and more like a Primary wave 3 repeat is in the making only this one is of a higher degree and will bring more volatility and bigger point gains. All in all, this is, without question, the strongest all around uptrend seen in money flow since records have been kept in 1926, and it would be a real shame to have too many lose out on this once in a lifetime opportunity to fully exploit it by sitting in the F or G fund most of the time. What we're witnessing here is the most incredible display of liquidity strength ever seen - yes liquidity has returned. It's just a matter of time now before the epicenter of Elliott wave 3 of Primary degree goes parabolic on us. You don't think it's possible - look at the graphs of the emerging markets - we're just playing catch up.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The last time the U.S. had an industrial led cycle was in 1950s - 1960s."

There were a couple of pretty good years in there and some that were not very impressive, but the overall trend was definitely up during the years 1950 to 1966. And that was way before we had all this technology that makes expanding extremely rapid. The 1950's and 1960's were mainly for the U.S. Now we are at a global expansion. Yikes! This is going to be HUGE! Thanks for the viewpoints, Birchtree.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Man if only I had been LUCKY enough to be in the buy and hold position of the S fund since 9/7 I'd be up $1.50 for a 15% return. But since I was in a buy and hold position of the C fund I made a whole lot less. Should I take the money and run like a good timer - recognizing how important capital preservation is to the bottom line?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ by Adam Cohen dated 10/6 Euro's Rise Is Set to Spark Some European Fireworks

"The euro's steady climb against the U.S. dollar is hurting European exports, prompting politicians to lash out at the European Central Bank, the U.S. trade deficit and China's tightly controlled currency. Markets will look for signs that the finance chiefs want strong medicine, an ECB rate cut or even a coordinated effort to prop up the U.S. dollar.

Diverging interest rates are a key factor in the widening euro-dollar gap and while European politicians have tip-toed around the central bank - save for Mr. Sarkozy, who has demanded a rate cut for months - Monday's meeting could showcase growing strains in the ECB's relationship with national governments. If Mr. Trichet won't cut rates, direct support for the dollar could be an option. When the euro languished near 80 U.S. cents in 2000, the ECB, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan together bought billions of euros, propping up the currency." Watch for some type of intervention real soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ editorial page 10/6

"We interrupt this fear of recession with a word from the job market: The Labor Department reported yesterday that the U.S. economy created 110,000 new jobs in September, along with upward revisions of 118,000 jobs for July and August.

This is the latest sign that the recent financial panic is beginning to look more like a summer squall than an economic climate change. That's certainly what equity investors seem to be saying, as they once again bid up shares yesterday. Stocks have regained the heights lost during the August scare, so most people who held on for the ride haven't lost anything but a little sleep.

Credit contagion aside, the greatest fear among economists has been that the housing implosion will cut into consumer spending. Yet nothing influences consumers more than a healthy jobs market; they really start spending less when they see their neighbors out of work and fear they could be next. So far this isn't happening. Job growth has slowed from the pace in 2005-2006, but it remains strong enough to accommodate most new entrants to the workforce and thus keep the jobless rate stable (up 4.7% from 4.6%).

Even better for consumer spending, income growth remains strong. Average hourly earnings for non-supervisory workers were up 0.4% for the month, and are now up 4.1% in the last 12 months. Real wages, after inflation, climbed by 2.2% in the 12 months that ended in August. These income gains are stronger than those at a comparable stage of the recovery in the 1990s. And this is money in consumer pockets that will help to offset lower home prices.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Birchtree has prepared a testimonial. The big bull hopefully is soon entering a new dawn of relevancy. After searching my conscience and having a serious consultation with my butt buddy Ferdinand, I've decided that in order for this renegade contrarian to achieve the warmth of comradeship and true acceptance on the MB I should voluntarily change my investment style. It was recommended that I join the lush meadow of bunny hoppers and fall in line behind the more notable and notorious momentum chasing timers that practice their skills here. I want to be a brethren and belong to my extended family of crusading timers. I will atone and indulge myself in the merits of CP. I like the new motto "Friends don't let friends buy and hold". Therefore, there will be no more meretricious type behaviors from me. I will refrain from harassment of the fearful and negative leaning crowd with my pedantic harangues. My tendentios bullishness has become an annoyance to some to the point of animosity toward the big bull. I'll try and be less fatuous and more gratious in the future - my 12 step program will be completed in the spring. A new adventure with the promise of greater profits.

 

[Pill]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Remember its a day at a time!

Don't change to fast.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been making preparations for several years - just waiting for the right time to practice my quick draw skills. I'm set to become more of a position trader. My goal for this year was to make $125K in the tugboat. Next year I'm throwing in the towel so I'll have more time to be actively involved - I think my goal should be a modest $200K. There should be tremendous volatility which would play well with a timing strategy.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The S&P 500 is trading at 14.6 times 2008's expected earnings, a ratio that while not as attractive as a few weeks ago, is still cheap. Even if stocks seem attractive to other investments, holding them requires a stronger stomach today than a year ago. Between July 19 and late September, roughly half the trading sessions featured swings in the S&P 500 of at least 1%. By contrast, in all of 2005 and 2006 combined there were less than 60 trading days in which prices moved more than 1%. I'm banking on a solid earnings rebound in the fourth quarter. Earnings on S&P 500 companies are expected to grow by 10.5% in the final three months of the year.

 

[crhuss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, I'm happy to see that you are going to take the plunge and throw in the towel next year. It's really nice here on the other side of the work-a-day world. Most people think they will have plenty of time 'once they retire', but it just doesn't happen that way. I have found that I am twice as busy now, in retirement, than I was while working. The difference is that now I can give my full attention and quality to my life's activities instead of just doing everything half-way. I used to hurry through one project so I could get on to another project to do half-way to get on to the next project. In retirement, you don't have as much time as you think. True, you don't have as many things that require your attention, but you do everything better and the ride is much nicer.
Best of luck on your investment strategy change and your future as a retired gentleman investor.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the future guidance. I plan to be fairly aggressive with my account now that I've achieved power account status. Serious investing can lead to serious profits - no resting on my laurels. Spaf will tell all this is definitely serious business and risk should be appreciated as both a builder of small fortunes as well as a slayer of wealth. I'm dreaming (fantasy) of hundreds of more $K in my future. The bull is raging and now is fast approaching the time to intelligently maximize the gifts the economy and markets are providing.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Sucessful investing is retiring and not having to be a Wal-Mart greeter!.....
S

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Sucessful investing is retiring and not having to be a Wal-Mart greeter!.....
S

And how did you know what I was planning???

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Sucessful investing is retiring and not having to be a Wal-Mart greeter!.....
S

I don't know Spaf, looks like a good job to me!! No pressure, just - good morning mam - hava a nice day Sir!!:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The friendly Wal-Mart greeter has something the rest of us don't have - a profit sharing plan.

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The friendly Wal-Mart greeter has something the rest of us don't have - a profit sharing plan.

COUNT ME IN!​

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