Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Off of the August decline this market has done a fine job of spanking many who believed in all that drama that was generated during that time. So much of it was overblown more than anything else. The NYSE breadth MCSUM has traversed close to 1000 data points from its bottom seen in August. That has bullish implications and the higher we go the less pressure to the downside in price. If the market produces another thrust upward Friday, we'll have I think several more weeks of advance - if not we'll pause and that would actually be healthy. I'm personally waiting on the power of a parabolic rise and as we approach the epicenter of Primary 3 it would not be out of line to have that expectation. Be right and sit tight. Holding 88C and 12I.

 

[Pill]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How long could the 3rd wave last?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Primary 3 could last for many more years. This would then open the door for a Primary wave 4 in the decade of 2010-2020, then Primary 5 up after that. Since the RA NYAD has taken out the 1959 highs that would mean that the bottom seen either in 1932 or 1937 would be part of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 3 and that topped out in the 1960s. Primary wave 3, therefore would either have its starting point in 1974 or 1982 depending on which chart you look at. For those not familiar with Elliott labeling, the "Primary" label is that of many years to decades.

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Decades.... surf's up...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Vectorman has posted a nice link in the Technical Analysis section concerning Elliott Wave.

"3) that rotation into large caps and growth stocks from small caps and value stocks have been evident for sometime now....My current guess is that in general, large cap growth will continue to overperform small caps and small cap value going forward."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8544.htm

 

[Uptrend]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nice piece of information. However, I think that small cap tech stocks will continue to outperform the market. Good heads up to be carefull though with the S fund. Also, looks like there is a compelling argument to be carefull with the I as US dollar index is ripe for a rebound in the next month or so.

 

[Pill]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Birch!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dow futures took off on the jobs report. I can certainly live with a one and done.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Looking back over the July-August correction I made 199 individual stock purchases hurting myself all the way down to the bottom of the well. I even managed to do some selective buying on the intraday low at 12,500. Today is reward day - back up the truck.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And it's never too soon to be anticipating the next blind side - that's where the opportunities reside. What ever happens I'm destined to stay in front of the train if possible until the first of the year - I can't afford to declare any more profit this year. But as always if I'm forced into a position of sacrifice I'll take some flowers off the table only to buy more wall flowers. A Dow Theory Primary buy reconfirmation will be the seminal moment for the bull to stampede.

See how far the NYAD is from the 10% trend and the distance between the 10% trend and the 5% trend. You should be concerned when you have a change in trend of monel flow and the only verifiable way that you will know that the trend has changed is not only when the NYAD moves down below both of these EMAs. But only when the 10% trend (19 day EMA) moves below the 5% trend (39 day EMA) is when you will know that the trend has changed from up to down. So first we have to see the NYAD break the 19 day EMA - and currently it's going to take some time to accomplish this. So as long as the NYAD continues to make new highs (soon) and it's able to move with enough strength to pull apart the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMAs, the higher and higher price is going to go. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today's SPX (1555) numbers should send most bears into hibernation and few will have the temerity to go against the trend. I'll take a melt up - get me in at any price.

It is far easier to make money in a secular than cyclical bull market. Buy and hold works if stocks are going to rise steadily for several years. Look back to 2003 and see where we came from. And a few words of wisdom today: Where stupidity is practiced, suffering soon follows. During the first half of this year the $124 billion that was invested into U.S. equity mutual funds, including exchange traded funds, fully $110 billion, or 89% went into funds investing in overseas companies. As a renegade contrarian this information perks my ears up. This situation will not change overnight - but when the transitition comes this money will flow back to the U.S. domestics. The hedge funds will move in herd tandem.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree you talk about making money in two different boats on a regular basis it would seem. We are probably close in age early 50's so I was just curious how did you do this week total if you don't mind sharing?


Greg

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

If I share you won't get mad at me will you? Before the opening this morning the oceanic was up $15K on the week - I'll know what I made today when Merrill updates my account in the morning. I would speculate that I'm somewhere close to $30K on the day because of the breadth. Now I know you can put me to shame but that's OK because I'm still growing and learning and the market is both opportunity builder and slayer. If you'd like to take a look at my individual holdings they are listed in the short term before Christmas thread. One of my past nemesis has called my account into question - but he's so full of malignities he's borderline pathetic frothing with jealousy. But he does hold an esteemed moderator position in our microcosm so I remain respectful of his position.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I posted this message for Paladin and Chemeng in Griffin's account thread and he politely erased it - the power of malignity never ends for that one. He sent me a pm calling me a dork and I responded in kind with Pinky. The fun we have around here.

Anyway, the post went something like this: The internals are showing things that haven't been seen in 50 years. Which just happened to be during a third wave advance of one lesser degree or the same degree as the current time frame and that rally lasted a Fibonacci 8 years. He obviously had difficulty understanding the meaning so he obfuscated it with deletion. That's typical behavior of some that feel ....if I say it I'll hear from Tom. He's very protective of the boys that are his moderators.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As long as we are offering full discosure:

I said:

Title: Don't waste my time

Birch,

Don't waste my time. I asked you politely in public. Now I am telling you in private. Don't be a dork, accept it and move on.

to which you responded

Title: Closet Liberal

Your colors are plain to see. As you wish Pinky.

to which I responded

Birch,

Go away.

and now you have finally comeback with

I've gone away. Now leave me alone before I cry. At least I never called anything you've said garbage. Your head is so far up your rectum you'll never see daylight. You gonna send this to Harvey and Tom?

No, I'm going to post it for all to see. May I direct your attention to the part of the MB rules that say "don't annoy the moderators"

Are we done?

If so, good night.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are done!

Now on to business. An important point to keep in mind for the longer term, is as long as the weekly composite A/D MSCUM (NYSE) and not the common only continues rising while it is comfortably above the +1000 level, the probabilities of a significant price decline is extremely low. Thus for now, all is clear for the longer term health of the market - the current direction of longer term money flows into the composite group of NYSE stocks is simply too strong to support the notion of a price collapse at this time. Even though we just completed a 1600 point reversal to the upside it would appear that this current uptrend in stocks has enough staying power to continue into the spring of 2008. At least that's my plan. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. And remember the market will do everything it can to make sure it takes the fewest amount of participants along with it. It will try and shake you out along with your confidence.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bottom Line: While the market is making new highs, technical support is fading and a corrective pullback should be expected within the next week or so" It won't be much so bring it. The reason we have beel lite on volume is because all the sellers have dried up. I'm going to wait on a parabolic move to the upside before I get nervous.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/1005.html

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My own sentiment survey has shown the more tension on the MB, the more volatile the market.....take off the gloves boys...we got some ground to cover.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the offer, but you are late to the school yard. Griffin and I along with a few of his special backup friends have already been down this road. It did make for good vanity - I was getting 400 reads a day. There's plenty of room and we won't likely bump very often. With some of these knobs around here as soon as I open my mouth someone is ready to put their foot in it - the only thing is I still got my ammunition. I got a wheelbarrow full of superlative manure, I got a bull with sharp horns, and I got a good looking tree always prepared for the unexpected. What more do I need? And a little help from Harvey on occassion can soothe any raging beast. Snort.

 

[SkyPilot]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well, you know that @%@% Birch! A no good @$%@$%...

That should do it !

Nawww...

Too much goodness there.

Birch is one of the good ones.

Have to find another way to stir things up!

Good night all...