Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The NYSE McClellan oscilator (MCO) has remained positive for seven weeks. This has enabled the Summation index (MCSUM) to rise well into positive territory, but it is still shy of its former high, in that sense, it is under-performing price. By rising to new all time highs, several equity indices are confirming that the bull market from October 2002 is still intact."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8565.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Therefore if the market continues its rally through anticipated seasonal weakness this month, then that just confirms the view how strong this bull market is, and that it has much longer to run, many years in fact. I would view any future sell offs as buying opportunities, this bull market is behaving as though it has just begun rather than having run for over 5 years....It looks like pre 1995." That sounds good to me.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/walayt/2007/1008.html

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

COUNT ME IN!​

View attachment 2290​

bud, is that a picture of you??
That guy looks a little drunk.

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

bud, is that a picture of you??
That guy looks a little drunk.

Yeah, that's me. I'm looking kinda rough after being harassed and chastised for making that IFT on a holiday.
Budnipper1's Account Talk

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Post #1970 indicates that post #1873 may be in affect.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Friday was an important day for the Transports because it broke above the resistance of the short term consolidation and closed inside its up trend channel. This is a positive element for the stock market."

http://www.stocktiming.com/monday-dailymarketupdate.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You are doing a great job! Your style works for you and you are way ahead of the herd. 2 good points you've made may reap in some extra gains: 1) The S Fund is dominating the returns and is unlikely to change for the remaining quarter. 2) The European Market (I Fund) has gained strength - and likely will do better than C (at least for 07).

A factor often missed is the Presential 3rd Term - which is the opposite of Tom's chart for years that end in 7. The average return in slightly over 20% - which means this should be a great quarter.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Don't agree on the small caps. This from TWSJ by Scott Patterson. 10/9

"Last week, the Russell 2000 jumped 4.9%, compared with a gain of 1.2% by the Dow and a 2% gain by the S&P 500. (IMHO a false dawn). But small stocks aren't out of the woods. Housing shows every sign of getting worse. And job growth is still anemic. Payrolls in September were 1.2% higher than a year ago, the weakest growth in more than three years. Investors in small caps are also banking on an earnings surge that may not materialize. Operating earnings for companies in the S&P 600 index, which tracks companies valued at $2 billion or less, are forecast to gain 24% in the fourth quarter from the previous year, much more than the 10% growth predicted for larger companies. That's highly optimistic considering earnings for the index are expected to decline 1% in the third quarter after dropping 2% in the second.

Small over big has worked for investors. The Russell 2000 index has outperformed the S&P 500 for eight years in a row through 2006. That streak is in jeopardy now. The R2K is up 6.7% year to date, while the SPX is ahead by 9.5%. The DJIA of 30 mega cap stocks is up 13%. One reason: Large stocks are better positioned to benefit from strong growth overseas and a weak dollar, which makes it cheaper to export. Small stocks, because they tend to have a smaller global footprint, are more exposed to the domestic economy, which looks weak right now." When I praised the S fund gains from last week I was talking in tongues with a hidden meaning. I'm staying in the C fund for the rest of the year and I'm gently lifting the Mrs out of her international fund. I took her out of small caps already. Just trying to stay in front of the train.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This breakout is significant because the Transports were showing relative weakness. The breakout is the first step to challenging the July high and confirming the Dow Industrials. At this point, the trend is up for the Dow Transports and I expect a move towards 5300-5500 as long as key support at 4800 holds." A Dow Theory Primary buy reconfirmation will be the seminal moment for the bull to stamped and the market to go parabolic. Be in to win.

http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/cww20071006m.html Arthur Hill - check on John Murphy and Richard Rhodes

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As a matter of full disclosure I don't subscribe to any newsletters. So today the "Shark" says even the most bullish can only watch the baffling bull run in amazement. Now where have I heard that before? I'm not amazed, I'm fully expecting a lot more - maybe even something parabolic. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As reserves are projected to keep expanding, a growing number of countries have established stand alone sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in which their excess reserves can be invested more aggressively into equities, public and private, property and commodities. It is these funds that are likely to make a huge splash in the markets in coming years." You can place your bets on that.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8581.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

$21K yesterday was the somber number - I was expecting more. Now I'll settle for holding on to it. I still think it will be a good week.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm gently lifting the Mrs out of her international fund.

I'm curious ....seems I read so much that international will continue to outperform US and much of the positive about S&P is that its companies derive their values from overseas.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm simply dollar cost averaging my way out in small 1% increments as the fund (AEPGX) moves up in price and shifting the money into a greater position of domestic large cap (PYODX). I don't mind being the first one out, I just don't want to be the last one standing. It will take at least a year to accomplish this maneuver - maybe longer. Did anyone see the top in 2000? The emerging markets are the new tech stocks of this decade. My investment philosophy is rather simple. When tech was raging, the Mrs was boring accumulating small cap - and international. She is now accumulating large cap trying to optimize the new bull trend. Oh, I forgot my philosophy: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With today's rebound in the SPX and R2K the liquidity factor is once again spreading out a bit more - this is positive for the continuation of the bull run. All the breadth measures that are measured on a cumulative basis are either in bullish configurations or are close in being in this position. The Ferdinand creed: The toughest discipline is letting your profits ride. Be right and sit tight. Snort. With bottoms above bottoms every where one looks, we are only a compression away from a more happening high before true exhaustion is actually seen.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I held my gains yesterday and actually pulled down a $2K profit. We'll add to that today. The NYSE breadth MCSUM is at +233 and is pushing yoward +500 and the higher we go the less likely we'll see multiple day pull backs in price action - we are stair stepping higher. I was looking for a Dow of 15,600 by the end of the year but I'm going to change that goal to 15,900. A 45 degree angle of ascent is indicative of a strong trend - be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm sure I gave back some today - but tomorrow is another day. I wouldn't be surprised if we take it back tomorrow by going up 150 points. I wish I was as prescient as that 12% character. Anytime the VIX moves below the 89 day SMA Bollinger Bands, we've had some nice bull moves. The last buy signal of this type was in August of 2006.

"Industrials are on the cusp of breaking out to a new high versus consumer discretionary stocks....oue models are still forecasting a brighter outlook for capital spending.
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Something in the way she moves, moves me like no other. The NYAD line is close to its' previous high point and as long as breadth plurality remains in line to price there is nothing to worry about. The Dow breadth MCSUM was at +1135 so nothing dire to the downside for awhile me thinks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently my oceanic account is dead even for the week. Today is the make or break day. For me as long as the NYAD line remains above its 1% trend (200 day EMA) this is the directional indicator that tells me whether I am in a market environment that is bullish or bearish. I will be looking forward to see if a lower top on the NYAD forms - if that happens that sends a warning signal. This market is on a mission.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently my oceanic account is dead even for the week. Today is the make or break day. For me as long as the NYAD line remains above its 1% trend (200 day EMA) this is the directional indicator that tells me whether I am in a market environment that is bullish or bearish. I will be looking forward to see if a lower top on the NYAD forms - if that happens that sends a warning signal. This market is on a mission.

agreed today and early next week are pivotal, if we can't hold suppor on several technical levels. Let's hope it stays bullish.