Birchtree's Account Talk

[weatherweenie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The targets were dropping today and I may just make my goal for May if I can get one more good short squeez. I'm going to be shutting down for a week - but I'll return.

Never thought I'd see the day where I wanted to hear some of Birch's rah-rah, the markets are going up forever talk.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Don't let distractions keep you from making money. Understand market mechanics and you will always make money by being on the right side of things.
The oceanic did drop below the support line at $1.5M but the cut wasn't deep. I liquidated my AKS position over four trades last week and redistributed the funds into 133 buying trades - got to take opportunity when it's presented. When the bull is ready to keel over, it will be from too much revelry, not an excess of caution.
The oceanic looks like this so far this year: Jan-$86, Feb-$9, Mar-$17, Apr-$95, May-$99 and I'll continue to hold out hope for a $100K gain forb June. I'm bound to get lucky sooner or later.
It turns out extensive periods of time when both the NYSE AD and UD MCSUM remain above zero are rare. On balance, sustained strings of MCSUM days above zero are very positive for prices going forward if the underlying market conditions are supportive ie. in a bull market that has gotten by its' initial leg from the bear market lows. The MCSUM's sustained strength over the past nine months is likely promising much higher prices over the next year or so. I'm holding out for a Dow of 15,600 by the end of the year. Plan to play the game all summer while everyone else steps back - the grip of fear makes me giddy.

 

[Oldcoin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Welcome Back!

 

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ditto! Welcome back.

Dell

 

[post]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

" The grip of fear makes him giddy"

Birch Welcome back!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've made $306K in five months all on the back of fear - give me fear all summer. The VIX at 13.94 is about 29% below its' 2007 high in early March and is signaling that options are still relatively cheap. I'm simply trying to buy myself into happiness and it may just work. Very few believe in the mega trend secular bull market - that's just the way it should work. We are in the middle of the relentless 3 of 3 wave. Even the IBES Valuation Model at -24.2 is still way undervalued. The NYAD line continues to rock on - the NYSE breadth figures are at historic highs right now - there is no comparison to the current market action in the history of the NYSE. What is amazing to me is that on any given day this market can explode with a historic up move coming out of the blue - I don't want to miss that one. That's why I stay right and sit tight. The Dow breadth MCSUM now stands at a mind boggling +1417 - this high level will all but contain any further price decay in this index. There is one problem, however, there is an 8 year bottom due next year.

 

[FogSailing]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I hear you. Here's a copy of something you (or another of the TSP brain trust) may have posted in the not so distant past regarding economic cycles...

I have it printed in the office..

I'm hoping the bull keeps charging...

FS

 

[post]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

[
"A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.


[edit] Conclusions
The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%.

The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen."

Birch, if a second Hindenburg Omen occurs please send me a message.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Post,

I'll be on the lookout.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1180...googlenews_wsj

A common sign of froth is stocks being bid up to high multiples of their earnings. To day the average stock in the SPX trades at about 17.7 times its expected earnings over the next year - only a little above the average since the 1930s. At the end of 1999, the index's average P/E ratio topped 30. Tech stocks comprised about a third of the value of the SPX at their peak in 2000. Today, they're only about 15%. By just about any measure, you have more balance and lower valuations today than we saw in 2000. A Dow of 15,600 is still in my future before the end of 2007.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Hey check this out!
Watch [$SPX] and the Bollinger Bands! When prices are in the upper portion the market keeps moving that way. But touch a upper BB and the market senses O.B. and starts a pull back (well a lot of times). Noticed that?......

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Post,

I'll be on the lookout.

A common sign of froth is stocks being bid up to high multiples of their earnings. To day the average stock in the SPX trades at about 17.7 times its expected earnings over the next year - only a little above the average since the 1930s. At the end of 1999, the index's average P/E ratio topped 30. Tech stocks comprised about a third of the value of the SPX at their peak in 2000. Today, they're only about 15%. By just about any measure, you have more balance and lower valuations today than we saw in 2000. A Dow of 15,600 is still in my future before the end of 2007.

Wow, another very well written and researched "opinion". Worshipping at the alter of Sen. Biden again? Probably just forgot the link again.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The source of this is Ian McDonald at the Wall Street Journal

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118063928630820364.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Post,

I'll be on the lookout.

A common sign of froth is stocks being bid up to high multiples of their earnings. To day the average stock in the SPX trades at about 17.7 times its expected earnings over the next year - only a little above the average since the 1930s. At the end of 1999, the index's average P/E ratio topped 30. Tech stocks comprised about a third of the value of the SPX at their peak in 2000. Today, they're only about 15%. By just about any measure, you have more balance and lower valuations today than we saw in 2000. A Dow of 15,600 is still in my future before the end of 2007.

 

[charmed855]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The source of this is Ian McDonald at the Wall Street Journal

Did Ian mention anything about being right and sitting tight? :laugh:

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Did Ian mention anything about being right and sitting tight? :laugh:

No but he does say:

"These differences mean it is unlikely this market will behave like the one in 2000. They don't, however, mean this market will keep climbing." :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today was another buying opportunity. We are seeing rotation on a daily time period. This fits nicely with a center point of wave 3, especially with a Primary degree structure. I'm looking forward to my next C fund DCA under $17 to collect my 48 shares - I can do this for the rest of the year if necessary but unfortunately we'll blow right through the $17 price in short order. The oceanic is holding support. I sold out my position in BW a while back and every time I do that the shares continue higher - and sure enough BW went up another seven points - only today it dropped ten points and is now below where I sold it - that's Karma. Frankly another purge would set a better foundational bottom for the market to rally off of. I'm still trying to buy myself into happiness.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like I may have to pay over $17.00 tomorrow on the C fund. On the come back trail again - today was beneficial.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Some days it just doesn't pay - I'll probably lock a loss for the month of June if this purge continues. I did step up today and liquidate my position in AMN on the highs, so now I'm sitting on the side of the well with ample cash just in case I'm required to jump in. I bought positions in GRA, LNN, CLC, ALB, and TRA. Next week if the sell off continues I'm fully prepared to continue to DCA into my present positions buying all the way down - I can't wait for the pain to kick in - you know, no pain, no gain. Many dividends due next week as well as the first week in July to be reinvested - so bring on the lows and I'll take opportunity - no fear here my friends. Besides I own the holy grail. I'm just going to ignore the tugboat and let fate lead me to further gains and another DCA under $17.00. How great is that for an accumulator. They say that for the long term buy and holder today's asset value is irrelevant - so be it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You might be right - but these heavy drops in the morning provide good opportunity for sweet pricing. I'm still holding 100% C fund and plan to stay put - probably wrong but still strong. Lots of noise today regarding Donkey tax proposals which will never go anywhere. I'm ready to jump in the well again and then back to running in front of the train. I need to make another $500K before the year ends.

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchy, I'm down $332K this week so don't feel bad. It would have been worse but Doug Kass made me some money. This is the nonTSP account. Just DCA into your dingy.

No guts no glory. DCA all the way only way too go.

On a bad day you know what they say in the Russian Marine Corps. Toughski Shitski


white

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

White,

If I were down that much I'd be hammered flat. Just think what you're going to smell like with a 200 point rally. You must be holding multi-thousand share positions to move that much this week. The A/D lines are still in bullish configurations - we're pausing and we're still holding at or near all time highs. So any surprises will continue to be to the upside. It's just taking more of a shake out to keep those who "recognize" what's happening now from fully participating. I've got 44 buys ready to go if I'm presented the opportunity to buy at lower pricing. We are now coiled and ready to rally off this bottom. I may have to move quickly come Monday. I could handle $332K if I were up $5M - excellent.