Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,
I know you have done well long term with your investments.
Do you have time, and would you be willing to help me set up a non-TSP portfolio?
If this discussion needs to be moved to a separate thread that is fine.
I prefer a buy and hold account so I can live life instead of being chained to a computer in day trades. I also prefer ETF’s.
I generally don’t like to post $ amounts, but in this case it is need to know info.
I’m just starting out and have $60K to work with.
My portfolio insurance is already in place with 10K in 1/10oz gold coins, and an additional 15K in gold mining shares (NXG).
I have plenty of time, so I can be aggressive.
I found this interesting; Wisdomtree ETF video:
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10340609&channel=Mutual+Fund%2FETF+Report&puc=yahoo&ts=1178814380796

Thanks
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

NyteTracker said:
Birchtree,
I know you have done well long term with your investments.
Do you have time, and would you be willing to help me set up a non-TSP portfolio?
If this discussion needs to be moved to a separate thread that is fine.
I prefer a buy and hold account so I can live life instead of being chained to a computer in day trades. I also prefer ETF’s.
I generally don’t like to post $ amounts, but in this case it is need to know info.
I’m just starting out and have $60K to work with.
My portfolio insurance is already in place with 10K in 1/10oz gold coins, and an additional 15K in gold mining shares (NXG).
I have plenty of time, so I can be aggressive.
I found this interesting; Wisdomtree ETF video:
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10340609&channel=Mutual+Fund%2FETF+Report&puc=yahoo&ts=1178814380796

Thanks
Click to expand...
buy IRBT and hold it
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

NyteTracker,

I have probably spent less than 10 minutes in my lifetime looking at ETFs. I'm more comfortable dealing with individual stocks. This strategy provides the flexibility I need as times change. One of our members, Country Boy, opened an on line Sharebuilder Roth IRA and seems satisfied with the experience. Sharebuilder is owned by Warren Buffet. They also have regular accounts and provide mechanisms to buy just about any stock you want - they may even have access to ETFs. That's where I'd start looking - they are low priced on fees. I'd take a look around in the drilling industry. The number of oil and natural-gas drilling rigs operating world-wide has increased steadily since 2003, hitting a 21-year high of 3,352 rigs in February - this is still down from 8,000 in the early 1980s. World wide exploration and production spending will rise 8.9% this year to $291.5 billion - figures that don't include big spending plans by state owned oil companies in the Middle East and Africa. I did some buying in this area back during our last correction - we'll talk again. GL.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was satisfied to give back $11K but certainly not $28K. It looks like I'll get some of that back today and my DCA will still be under $17.00. So all is right with the world - we needed a pause to refresh.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I was satisfied to give back $11K but certainly not $28K. It looks like I'll get some of that back today and my DCA will still be under $17.00. So all is right with the world - we needed a pause to refresh.
Click to expand...

Here's hoping it was only a pause.

I'm not so sure it was. :sick:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From all that nonsense the C fund gave up $.03 on the week, the S fund gained $.01 and the I fund gave back $.30 on the week. That's a nice hit on a 100% position.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Me to, me to. I got $27K back which leaves me up $26K on the week and $67K on the month so far. My goal is $100K for the month. Next week could be difficult but I'm in to win. That sharp hammer hit was no surprise - the bull likes to buck'em off if he can. This is going to be a long train ride.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Seems to be a lot of disbelief in the rising trend. It seems strange to be bullish and perceived as a contrarian at this juncture. The markets wall of worry is firmly in place and after all I do have the holy grail so I can absorb some pain and not be shoved out the door. This is the set up I'm totally comfortable with being a renegade contrarian - come on train run over me and take me out - I'll only find it refreshing. Cause I'll only get back up and get on board for another ride to even higher levels - this mega trend secular bull market is undeniable. Actually I prefer to run in front of the train. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Please Mr. Custer, I don't want to go....no lilly pads in my future. Just give me that old time religion of capital appreciation. Today was an even day with a pause to refresh.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Read at your own peril.

"Since this is a "7" year, we expect another poyential sell off that's bigger than the most recent one. Since 1842, there has only been one "7" year that did not have a sizable correction or even an outright market crash. In both 1987 and 1997, the S&P 500 made a significant correction in the Spring. It quickly recovered and ran to new all-time highs thru at least August. Then the market tanked in October."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/pearce/2007/0514.html

"Traders should focus on the long side of trades in the S&P for the next few months".
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dow breadth MCSUM reading of +1486
Dow volume MCSUM reading of +1967 - it's going to be months before we see a price top in the Dow, 14300 is going to be easy, 15,600 is something we can look for probably before the end of summer. The NYAD is continuing to move higher in a trending basis but in a rather sluggish manner. The position of the NYAD line is still in a bullish configuration. The distance between the 19 and 39 day EMA's is narrowing but ever so slightly - just a breather. The sentiment values continue to reflect that of market bottoms and not market tops. Rock on Ferdinand.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ by Peter McKay 5/18/07 The Dow Hits Its 46th High Since October

"The string of new Dow highs since October has left many Wall Street pros and investors wondering whether the market is due for a slump. For now, the worst-case scenario most analysis envision is a temporary setback. A look at previous record runs generally supports that upbest view. Many previous flurries of Dow records have lasted longer than the current one and have entailed greater gains.

We haven't had these back to back years of 20% gains like we did in the 1990s. By those standards, the typical run of Dow records going back to 1900 has lasted more than 2 years and entailed a gain of 43.5%. By comparison, the current streak has lasted 71/2 months, during which the Dow has risen 15.6%.

If the S&P 500 starts a record run, history suggests it could enjoy a bonanza similar to the Dow's. According to Ned Davis Research, runs of S&P 500 records tend to last nearly two years, with gains of 45.9%." That's another 685 points from here.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The MCSUM tells you the direction of the money flow, how slowly or quickly it's moving in one direction or the other. The Dow breadth MCSUM is at +1523 and is at its highest level since 1998. There is no overhead price resistance to speak of. It's not people buying that makes prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy - this is the very back bone of Elliott wave analysis - the movement of masses based on the stimuli generated by greed and fear. Under a Primary 3 scenario or any wave 3 scenario the trend is relentless and pays very little attention to divergences and such so once this little bit of indigestion is out of the way the resy of May should really be good for the market and probably into mid June. We got a ten week low due next Tuesday but I'm thinking it will all be inraday activity. There was a loss of $300 in the oceanic this week and a $7000 gain in the tugboat. That reversal of fortune doesn't happen very often. I have a 3/2 splitter being paid on 5/23, those are always nice. Looking at another 2/1 being paid on 6/18. I want that 15,600 on the Dow before the end of summer - can't resist the smell of superlative manure.
 
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