Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand was just looking over Rokids' Long Term Tally and it would seem some karma is being delivered to a few of our yesteryear wonders and they are now being plowed under - that's OK because their heads were too big for their bodies anyway - time to start a replanting. The Dow volume MCSUM is over +2000. Price has been waiting for the ten week nesting that would have been due Tuesday - we may have seen it last week when the oceanic went backwards. I got manure for sale if anyone is interested.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A classic day with the Dow dropping and good pin action every place else. I need to make up for last week if I'm going to achieve my monthly goal.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand says what the hey, go ahead and tell'em how the oceanic is doing so far this week. A lurker might be keeping score. Alright then. Monday on a Dow dip we pulled in $11K, yesterday on a smaller dip we pulled in $4K. Today the pin action so far looks good for a double digit gain - we'll have to wait and see. Just riding the train for more gain - no fear or reason to cut and run. Be right and sit tight. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nah, no double digit gain for today. Patience is virtuous, though.

"One indicator that we have used in the past and has been in the press in the past year is the ISEE index of option activity. This measures the buying activity in the options markets - both calls and puts, not existing positions, but new purchases and sales. Below is a summary of the index since the end of 2002. Each time the call option buying activity gets heared (with readings over 200), the markets will generally struggle and begin a corrective phase. When put buying is very high (and the readings below 145), the markets begin a bottoming phase and generally rise. Since June'06, the readings have consistently been below 145, indicating a market primed for a rise".

http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm by Paul Nolte 5/23/07

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The conditions which have historically ended emerging equity bull markets are an inflation outbreak or debt deflation. Our Emerging Market Strategy services argues that neither are currently present".

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch, I noticed you've phased yourself out of the I fund. What type of picture are you seeing on that front??

white

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

wht00ss,

Everybody and their sister is headed that way - I'm pulling back. It took me two years to move the Mrs. out of her small caps into large caps and it will probably take me another two years to move her out of her international fund to be completely in large caps. Last week, Treasury reported that in March, U.S. investors bought $40.3 billion more of foreign stocks and bonds than they sold. That's second only to the $48.7 billion of last December. Strong returns help explain the enthusiasm for foreign stocks. According to the Investment Company Institute, Americans added a net $160 billion to stock funds last year, of which 93% went to funds investing in foreign companies. In 2003, before foreign stocks started strongly outgaining their U.S. counterparts, only 17% of U.S. stock-fund investments went into funds investing abroad. I put the Mrs. into international in July'02 and will slowly pull her out back into her large cap fund - that's my renegade contrarian nature.

The Japanese big banks are having problems making loans to their consumers. The euro zone has multiple problems so I'll just ease on out and go where no one is currently situated. I don't mind being early - but I am slow to move in bulk.

 

[post]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

If the S&P goes below 1500 I'm thinking of bailing out of the C fund. Should I still have confidence in the C fund?

I'm not sure so sure.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It won't be long and the C fund will start to get crowded - I'm looking at a nice DCA price so bring it on. I'd stay with the C fund until hell freezes over or at least until October 2010.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Holy sheet Batman that was a $31K hit - I'm still holding out for a $100K month if I can catch a break. Anyway the dividend reinvestments will look better will lower pricing. Just love a south paw in a bull market.

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Holy sheet Batman that was a $31K hit - I'm still holding out for a $100K month if I can catch a break. Anyway the dividend reinvestments will look better will lower pricing. Just love a south paw in a bull market.

31k is chump change for a man of your stature. I don't even wan't to tell you the hit I took But for the good news - the sky didn't fall - I went in 100% S fund yesterday, it's sunny outside I'm still above ground and we are still making money and yesterday's sell off was just another buying opportunity.

No guts no glory.

white

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

wht00ss,

I like your attitude. Louise Yamada thinks we have more than 10 years still to run. She compares the global expansion now to the period during and after World War 11, when the U.S. expanded industrial capacity to fight the war and then built roads, bridges and factories in the peacetime victory boom. We have a global build-out today that corresponds to our domestic build-out from 1942 to 1966, comparable to industrial expansion in Europe, Russia and the developing world, as well as China's preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympics. The strong global economy has kept the U.S. economy out of recession and kept profits at U.S. companies stronger than they would normally have been, even as interest rates have remained low. She owns Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I managed a $16K comeback yesterday which leaves me down $4K on the week, but still up $63K on the month. May not hit my goal this month - but June is just around the corner for another try. $37K in three days will not be doable unless all heck breaks out. I'll wait on June - no need to be greedy.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch have a happy and safe Memorial Day. Pass along to your daughter a thanks from my family for protecting our freedom!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for your kindness Jeff, it's appreciated.

On this coming Friday we get the release of the core PCE index. Look for the core PCE to have risen at a 2.1% annual rate in April, in line with the 2.1% reading in March. That would put the measure just above the 1% to 2% range the centralk bank considers acceptable. If the rate comes in at 2% or lower, stocks would likely rally because that could increase chances for a rate cut. In February, the core PCE index was running at a 2.4% annual rate. A decrease in rents might help this time around.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Holy sheet Batman that was a $31K hit - I'm still holding out for a $100K month if I can catch a break. Anyway the dividend reinvestments will look better will lower pricing. Just love a south paw in a bull market.

Yea we do need them south paws every once in awhile, BUT I'd sure love to WATCH a few tosses from sidelines and then hop back in after them south paws are done for their day.. Would help me out to keep a respectable account return going. lol I'm a greedy <insert favorite endearment here because mine are banned> !!!

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch, quit standing around like a 2nd Lieutenant and let's figure out what's going on with this market.

By the way what's worse than one commie pinko (i.e. Hillary Clinton) running for public office??
(you only get one guess)

white

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My guess is two donkeys.

From the Aden sisters of golden days, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, are writing - "The market has spoken and the message is very clear. Since the stock looks ahead, it's telling us that it sees better times ahead. It's say that existing problems will be worked out and good times will prevail. The bottom line is interest rates... short term interest rates confirmed a major reversal in early May. This is a hughe deal because it means that for the first time in three years, the major trend for interest rates has turned down and interest rates are going lower, probably for a couple of years. Stocks may correct soon, the Adens say, but overall will be borne upward by the Fed's money tide for some time to come. And this is unlike the 1970s in that it's not purely an inflationary boom - there actually is real increase in world demand, coming from emerging economies like China".

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My guess is two donkeys.

See even you Army guys can count.

white

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The targets were dropping today and I may just make my goal for May if I can get one more good short squeez. I'm going to be shutting down for a week - but I'll return.