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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks for all the considerations last week. I did notice the worm changed some of the personal data when it was pointed out that in 1969 he was only 14 years old. I had that one lined up - only wish you'd let me put him down. I did get a pm from a member with some nice graphic thankyou notes.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Let's see the inflation that has everyone panicky
Mr Bernanke said that while the rise in energy and commodity prices since 2003 hasn't led to the spiral of rising prices and wages of the 1970s, they have been large enough that they could account for some of the recent pickup in core inflation. Please Fed folks get a grip. He also said he expects productivity growth - output per worker-hour - to continue at a 2.5% to 3% a year for some years ahead. Such a high rate of productivity growth would enable the U.S. economy to grow at roughly 3% to 4%m a year without generating inflation. I think they pause - that'll be the surprise. It's known that monetary policy acts with a lag and that the effects could still be ahead of us, and while inflation expectations have ticked higher, that has happened in the past and not been sustained. I mentioned in a previous post that there have been times when the Fed has paused when inflation was still accelerating, only to drop as time progressed. It's hard to believe it wasn't that long ago they were talking about deflation. They are done.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
In November 2004, when the dollar reached a low of 1.33 to the euro, ECB President Trichet called the slide brutal. Other EU leaders complained about exchange-rate volatility. Now the dollar is or has been hovering around 1.30 to the euro, yet the monetary policy makers have been quiet. For many European companies, rising Asian sales are helping to offset any weakness in U.S. demand or margins, making the dollar exchange rate less critical. European exports to Asia were 37.2 billion euro in January and February 2006, a 16.5% increase over the year earlier period - and a faster increase than in the U.S. Going to stay on the cycle rider machine with this one.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From TWSJ 6/18 by Natsuo Nishio
Foreign ownership of Japanese stocks as of March 31 hit a record for the third straight year, according to annual data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange and other exchanges. Foreign investors owned 26.7% of Japan's listed shares, up from 23.7% a year earlier. The data confirmed that overseas investors were a main driver of the Japanese stock market rally last year. Ministry of Finance data released last Monday showed that foreign investors in May turned net sellers on a monthly basis for the first time in two years.
On a personal note, some members seem to find it incredulous that I'm willing to absorb corrections and the subsequent losses with impunity - it's basically a simple strategy. I compensate with DCA and I keep in mind the most important variable related to investing. It's not age or various risk arbitrage, no sir it's good old Mr Time. Time heals all wounds both of the portfolio and the heart. One of lifes lessons. And besides pain keeps me attentive and sharp. There is no loss until you IFT. I'm a cycle rider - give me a Ducati.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
We may not retest - buy now.
Generally speaking almost all intermediate term bottoms generate a double spike on the indicator. The usuall case is we first get a powerful spike which is then followed by a shallow spike that marks the price bottom. Time between spikes are usually 2-3 weeks. In the current case, we are about to complete the second spike which should mark the IT bottom. But there is something different this time. The second spike was unusually more powerful than the first one. In the last 5 years this happened at the bear market low on Oct 2002 and August 2004 IT bottoms. Then both lows were never tested. I prefer not to look down or backwards - this Fed will pause and catch everyone by surprise - gotta be ready.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Manufacturing renaissance
From TWSJ 6/19 by Saku
Japan's stock market has been reeling in recent months, a victim of the demons of financial scandals and possible monetary tightening.
Economic data, though, indicate more promise than peril ahead for Japan's economy, the world's second largest. Last week, estimates of first-quarter economic growth were revised sharply higher to 3.1% from an earlier estimate of 1.9%. Moreover, business capital spending surged 27.4% in the quarter, a rise that was broadly based both across industries and regions.
What's most interesting about Japan's economic surge is that it is being led not by the well-known global giants like Tokyo-based Sony Corp., but by less familiar companies such as TDK Corp., which in the past decade has transformed itself from the maker of cassette tapes into the leading maker of hard-disk drive heads, which read and write data on the disks used in personal computers and other electronics.
TDK and some other companies are developing a new global business template, taking advantage of both global acquisitions and cheap production in neighboring China to reinvent themselves. And at the same time, they are trying to change their corporate ethos to become more merit-based, less hierarchical organization. There is a manufacturing renaissance, but it isn't being led by the biggest companies and it isn't led in Tokyo.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Will the market finally come my way?
There's a general belief that we are entering an environment where large cap is just going to do significantly better than small. The enthusiasm for large-cap stocks indicates that managers expect the economy to slow with rising interest rates, high oil prices, inflation and a slowdown in the housing market. Large-cap stocks, whose companies typically are more mature and have more steady earnings, tend to perform better than small and midcap stocks when the economy slows. Holding 100% C fund for fun times.WWizard
Guest
Re: Will the market finally come my way?
Birchtree said:
By who? :blink:
This is your opionion, express it that way.
BTW: This is a bunch of baloney:
Reality of what is going on "by the real managers": (insider buying/selling)
WWizard
Guest
Re: Birchtree's account talk
SkyPilot said:
70% I fund, huh? That is going to leave a mark. :blink:WWizard
Guest
Re: Birchtree's account talk
SkyPilot said:
Sorry to hear that.Last edited:Similar threads
