Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

S Fund and Tariff talk: A nice gap up above the 20 day MA in early trading, as the talk of reduced tariffs is in the news.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/03/24/trump-administration-tariff-announcements-on-april-2-could-be-softer-than-thought-reports.html

Vanguard Indexes: Looking good too. VTI moving back above the 20 day and the 200 day MA. That could bring in some additional buyers...

 

[robo]

Some other indexes:

 

[FAAM]

I'm in my 70's and have most of my cash in notes earning around 4.5% right now, and the rest in VMFXX ( my cash settlement fund) I use for trading. I made plenty of trades this month, but the funds are now back in VMFXX as I wait for April tariffs to play out. The data looks very good for a move higher, but I'll pass.

Thank you again for all your time/sharing - as always! I especially thank you now for mentioning that you store your "Cash" in your investment account in a good-interest-paying Money-Market account: I haven't been doing so in my brokerage account - my Cash was in a Sweep-acct earning well-below 1%, so I just looked up yours, then looked up the MM accounts offered by my brokerage (Schwab) & went with that. A little lower rate than yours but close with no minimum.

 

[robo]

Thank you again for all your time/sharing - as always! I especially thank you now for mentioning that you store your "Cash" in your investment account in a good-interest-paying Money-Market account: I haven't been doing so in my brokerage account - my Cash was in a Sweep-acct earning well-below 1%, so I just looked up yours, then looked up the MM accounts offered by my brokerage (Schwab) & went with that. A little lower rate than yours but close with no minimum.

We shall see how the tariff talk plays out in the next few weeks.

I'm keeping my eye on the weekly and monthly data. VTI monthly is back above the 10 month MA, but it sure doesn't look like a YCL. IWM remains below its 10 month MA.

 

[robo]

Gold Is Set for a Decline​

BY JEFF CLARK, EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE

The gold sector looks vulnerable to at least a short-term decline – if not something a bit more ominous.

Admittedly, it’s hard to be bearish on gold stocks. The sector has been on fire in 2025. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) started the year near $285 per share. It closed recently near $355. That’s a 25% gain in less than three months – putting the gold sector at the top of the leaderboard so far this year.

Gold Is Set for a Decline – Market Minute

GDX weekly: Week 11, stretched above the 10 week MA, and other overbought indicators flashing a warning sign. Also, keep your eye on the dollar.

Bottom Line: The trend is up, but with more risk!

 

[robo]

SPX daily data - if you are trading the daily data: With the BuyALL back to 100, and the VIX tagging the lower BB the index could see some ST trouble. I think the tariff talk could be reduced some next week.

VTI weekly: We shall see if buyers can hold VTI above the 50 week MA. Next week we might see some big swings. I just might have to go back long again....

Monthly index chart:

 

[robo]

Gold:

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Gold continues doing what it does best; consolidate, break up, consolidate, break up etc...Note how nicely the 21 day continues to support. Our gold note from earlier today, see here.​

Goldilocks

 

[robo]

Bull/Bear: Improving....

 

[robo]

TLT monthly: Is the YCL in? If it is I'll be buying some shares, but this move below the 10 month MA doesn't look like the ICL is in.

 

[robo]

USD weekly: Did the dollar mark an ICL last week? If it did, and it moves higher for several weeks, some sectors will be under extra selling pressure. We shall see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

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Time to Start Putting Money to Work​

Jeff Clark | Mar 28, 2025 | Market Minute | 4 min read

After three weeks of turbulent action in the stock market, the bulls finally have some good news. One of our most reliable, short-term technical indicators has turned bullish.

The Summation Index for the NYSE flipped to a buy signal earlier this week. Take a look…

Time to Start Putting Money to Work – Market Minute

For now, I will pass on Jeff's NYSI buy signal even if it turns out to be a good one. Waiting on the next tariff comments.

Daily trading chart:

 

[robo]

Vanguard Indexes: Indexes I'm currently watching, and looking for trade setups.

Moving lower today:

Bottom Line: There is still way to much uncertainty! Getting closer to the lower gaps and a back test of the March lows....

 

[robo]

S Fund daily: Close to filling the lower gap....

Buying a few shares for a possible bounce next week if the tariffs are off again. Keeping it small...

 

[robo]

Cycles: In my opinion the current cycle is more about the "news cycle", and not about days, weeks or months. We shall see how next week plays out.

The S Fund never moved back above the 200 day MA. We shall see if it bounces and makes a higher low, fills the gap, or maybe makes a lower low next week.

Nothing Good Happens …

Stocks formed a swing high and closed below the 200 day MA on Wednesday. Stocks delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA on Friday. This sets up a left translated daily cycle…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

Stocks formed a swing high and closed below the 200 day MA on Wednesday.

 

[robo]

There is still way too much uncertainty: We shall see how the week plays out.

Vanguard daily index funds: The VIX is up again in early trading.... I'll buy a few more shares if we gap down at the open...

I will place some limit orders later today. It will be a small position that I'm adding to. Using VXF this trade.

Stock Market Futures - Investing.com

Discover real-time streaming rates in our comprehensive stock futures table, covering global futures markets, including US stock futures.

www.investing.com

https://www.cnn.com/markets/premarkets

 

[robo]

Daily: Filling the lower gaps? We shall see how the day plays out as the non-confidence grows with the tariff talk.

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Non-confidence is the new consensus. Goldman and Yardeni (and many more) give up, at least for the short-term. GS: "We now expect an S&P 500 3-month return of -5%......Our 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts are substantially below consensus" Yardeni: "...upping the odds of a stagflation scenario, which may include a recession, from 35% to 45%. That 45% is also the probability we see that the stock market’s correction will deepen into a bear market in coming months." Click here to read 13 observations on how non-confidence is now the new consensus.​ The Market Ear | Live news, analysis and commentary on what moves markets and trading | The Market Ear The Market Ear | Live news, analysis and commentary on what moves markets and trading themarketear.com

[td]Reign of Trump Tariff Terror leads to total non-confidence[/td]

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[tsptalk]

We're definitely starting to feel the fear and panic set in. Getting close?

 

[robo]

We're definitely starting to feel the fear and panic set in. Getting close?

I bought some shares of VXF at the open, and I have some small limit orders open for the next few days. We shall see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

Indexes daily: Well, if you bought the early morning dip in your trading account, you are looking good. TSP accounts will get the closing price. We shall see how the rest of the week goes.

 

[robo]

Cycles dude: We shall see how it plays out.

SPX monthly: I be watching this data...

Stop Run

Stocks formed a lower low on Monday. Stock printed their lowest point on day 41, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks closed above the 200 day moving average last week so…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

Stop Run​

March 31, 2025

Stocks formed a lower low on Monday. Stock printed their lowest point on day 41, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks closed above the 200 day moving average last week so we labeled day 41 as the daily cycle low. So — breaking below the day 41 low signals a failed daily cycle. However, stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday. Monday’s bullish reversal, along with the bullish divergence on the oscillators, indicate a stretched daily cycle which would make Monday day 53. A swing low and close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 53 as the DCL. A break above 5627.56 will form a swing low.