Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Hey Robo, have you been able to make the moves that you've made in the Autotracker in the TSP? Some have been saying they are not able to make those partial moves into the G-fund after #2, which is troublesome. Thanks.

I talked with my son and he remains long stocks in the S and C Fund. He too thought he still had unlimited moves into the G Fund after his two moves into stocks.

That really changes my recommendations to him using my daily charts if they have changed the rules. I always like to scale out after making large positions into stocks during oversold extremes. He rides it out a tad more. I make the same kind of moves at Vanguard as I recommend to him, but I scale in and out. I am up around 10k so far this year at Vanguard, but I have unlimited moves, and I can buy anytime during the trading day. What a big difference. My son also has a Vanguard account. As we all know this really sucks - The S Fund is up 2%, you place a request to move 25% back to the G Fund and the S Fund closes down close to 3%..... LOL... That happened to me recently on the TSP account. However, my son DID NOT take the recommendation, and remained in stocks. He told me a friend of his at work bailed after his account was down over 100k.... Ouch! Let me know what the new rules are if they have changed. My son offered to move some funds to try it, but I told him just wait until he is ready to go back to the G Fund. For now stocks continue to grind higher.

The SPX and VXF are both back above the 10 day SMA, the NYSI indicator has turned up, the VIX has moved back into the BBs, the PMOBUUALL has turned higher, HYG is leading stocks again, All are Bullish signs for now.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks. I have a suspicion that the problem some are having is a rounding issue. For example:

Someone was holding 50% G, 40% C and 10% S after 2 IFTs.

They try to make IFT #3 60% G, 30% C 10% S, but because of losses in that prior allocation, the S-fund went down to 9.4% of their account. Now, making an IFT and leaving the S-fund at 10% in their IFT #3 looks like an increase.

Just a hunch.

 

[robo]

Thanks. I have a suspicion that the problem some are having is a rounding issue. For example:

Someone was holding 50% G, 40% C and 10% S after 2 IFTs.

They try to make IFT #3 60% G, 30% C 10% S, but because of losses in that prior allocation, the S-fund went down to 9.4% of their account. Now, making an IFT and leaving the S-fund at 10% in their IFT #3 looks like an increase.

Just a hunch.

My son mentioned that too.... That could be it. He was going to try and make a move of 1k back into the G Fund, but I told him to wait until he is ready. Based on my daily indicators, stocks look like they are going to grind higher in the days ahead.

 

[rangerray]

I’m hearing some others say to choose the option to move money between funds instead of choosing the option to change the investment mix when trying to make multiple moves to the G Fund after you’ve used up all your IFT’s.

I haven’t tried it myself.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[robo]

Indexes Daily: So much for stocks grinding higher. All the indexes I track are now below the 10 day SMA. Waiting on the next post from the Big White House to determine what to do next. This is a news driven market which makes it very hard to trade.

 

[robo]

This is not good!​

April 21, 2025

This is not good!

Stocks closed back below the 10 day MA on Monday, calling into question if day 17 was the DCL. Part of our rationale for labeling day 17 as the DCL was the longer term weekly chart (above) showed t…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

 

[robo]

SPX monthly: We should also not over look that the monthly 3 month EMA remains below the 10 month SMA. The LT trend remains under pressure.

 

[robo]

SPX weekly: Here we go again.... Will it be a higher low, or a lower low. Depends on the next comment coming from the White House...

 

[James48843]

This is what I am thinking as I look at the market today, and going forward.

I think we calm down around here for a few days, possibly reaching 4925 on the S&P 500 this week.

And then ithe next big move will be down, again, to around 4200 or slightly less.

At that point, we either drop the tariffs, or else the blood will continue. I’m thinking by then, Congress may start to complain, and they will exert some Congressional authority over taxes and lift them.

My 2 cents.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[robo]

This is what I am thinking as I look at the market today, and going forward.

I think we calm down around here for a few days, possibly reaching 4925 on the S&P 500 this week.

And then ithe next big move will be down, again, to around 4200 or slightly less.

At that point, we either drop the tariffs, or else the blood will continue. I’m thinking by then, Congress may start to complain, and they will exert some Congressional authority over taxes and lift them.

My 2 cents.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

For now, I'm still holding a small long position, It is very hard to trade based on daily news events. I really thought we would grind higher this week. We shall see if we bounce tomorrow.

The SPX remains below the 20 day SMA, and it remains resistance.

 

[James48843]

According to a research note by Bank of America Global Research, foreign investors dumped $6.5 billion worth of U.S. equities last week, marking its second-largest amount on record, the first being the $7.5 billion in outflows during the banking crisis of 2023.

More: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/peter-schiff-rings-alarm-foreign-180033884.html

That is a huge amount of flight of capital.

 

[James48843]

. We shall see if we bounce tomorrow

We are due for a bounce. But I think it won’t be as big as the last one. Again, I think it’s gonna be short- a two or three day bounce at most, and then sideways for a bit I think.

It’s hard to hit it perfect with just two trades a month. Gotta go with the odds at this point.
Timing.

 

[tsptalk]

View attachment 68927

Those other two lows looked like good times to be buying stocks.

 

[robo]

S Fund daily: A nice gap up above the 20 day SMA. We shall see how we close...

LOL.... waiting on the next comment from the White House.... China, China, China, tariffs, tariffs, tariffs, remains big on my list of things to watch.

 

[robo]

Tuesday, April 22, 2025​

"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." --Warren Buffett​

"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." --Warren Buffett

A refreshing contrarian look at the global financial markets.

truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com

This looming market risk could spell trouble for gold - and investors are missing it​

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250422191/this-looming-market-risk-could-spell-trouble-for-gold-and-investors-are-missing-it

 

[robo]

IWM monthly: IWM remains below the 3 monthly EMA, and the 10 and 20 month SMA... Lots of damage has been done. We shall see if traders/investors come back to small caps in the weeks ahead.

China, China, China.... Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs as many investors moved to the sidelines and selling from world wide investors plus insiders continues.

There are lots of mom and pop retail stores that might have to shut down in the weeks ahead....

We shall see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

IWM weekly: A move back above the 200 week SMA would be a good start for at least a 50% retracement from the all time high. I am mainly tracking the weekly and monthly data right now. IWM needs to get going.... A move back above the 50 week SMA would get the Bulls very excited again, and the Bears in the OH SHIT mode!

We shall see how it plays out. I remain mainly a ST trader. Picking up a few MT trades when I see some extremes I Iike.

IWM monthly: We shall see if IWM can move back above the 50 month SMA next week.

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: ( Close to the S Fund at Vanguard) VXF made a very nice bounce off the 200 week SMA. I did make some nice Beer Money off of this move even though I bought a tad to early, but I did scale in with several tranches. We shall see if it can get back above the 50 week MA next week.

 

[robo]

What I will be watching next week... China, China, China, tariff talks, and the USD.

USD daily:

 

[robo]

USD weekly: A "possible" ICL is in play for the dollar. We shall see how it plays out.