Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

This will cause some problems for those living pay-check to pay-check...

Personal Finance

Trump administration to garnish wages of 5.3 million defaulted student loan borrowers this summer​

Key Points

• The Trump administration is set to garnish the wages of the 5.3 million federal student loan borrowers in default in just a few months.
• Meanwhile, it began this week alerting around 195,000 defaulted borrowers that their federal benefits will be subject to garnishment in 30 days.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/how-soon-defaulted-student-loan-borrowers-may-face-collections.html

 

[robo]

IWM daily: IWM is on the move, and is above the 50 day SMA. Good news for the Bulls... Sell IAU and buy IWM.... ( sell gold and buy stocks)

We shall see how it plays out, but looking good for stocks....

 

[robo]

IWM monthly: An important chart in my opinion....

IWM monthly: Buyers moving it higher and IWM is testing the 3 EMA monthly trend line. Again, good news for the Bulls. We shall see how the rest of the month goes... IWM monthly needs to get back above the 20 SMA, the 10 SMA and make a higher high. The lower high remains in play right now due to all the crazy shit going on..... Holding above the 50 month SMA keeps the trend on the Bullish side, and should cause more buyers to come in...

 

[robo]

SPX daily: Getting ready to test the 200 day SMA. Good news today could give stocks a nice rip higher tonight. We shall see how it all plays out.
IWM/VXF daily:
Traders Talk: https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?/topic/179817-naaim/

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-talks-defuse-trade-row-resume-geneva-2025-05-11/

 

[robo]

Tariff talks and War Drums: I'll be watching the VIX, USD, and the metals tomorrow.

 

[robo]

I'm still looking for a RIP higher in early trading... Stocks higher, and I'm not sure what gold and the dollar will do, that's if the tariff news looks like a deal is close. It could be another rip your face off short covering rally. Maybe later a sell the news event....

We shall see how it plays out!

Top US officials emerge from China trade talks touting ‘substantial progress’ and ‘deal’​

By Betsy Klein, CNN
2 minute read
Updated 12:39 PM EDT, Sun May 11, 2025

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/11/politics/top-us-officials-emerge-from-china-trade-talks-touting-substantial-progress-and-agreement

 

[robo]

SPX daily: The news looks good for a rip above the 200 day SMA, but my daily trading indicators are warning to stay in cash....

We shall see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

Stocks.... tariffs on tariffs off...

IWM weekly: It is a rare event for IWM to leave a gap behind this large on a weekly chart. We shall see if it fills in the weeks ahead. For now, IWM remains below the 50 week SMA. We shall see if enough buyers come back in, to push IWM back above the 50 week SMA, and continue this trending move higher.

IWM daily: The second chart and the 200 day SMA is up next.

 

[robo]

IAU monthly. IAU still remains very stretched above the 50 month SMA. I still think IAU has a date with the mean in the months ahead... The 50 month SMA mean...

IAU/GDXJ daily: Second chart

 

[robo]

SPX daily: Day 2 since the move above the 200 day SMA...... Looks good heading into the close...

The 200 Day MA – Update

News of a 90 pause on tariffs between the US and China sent stocks soaring on Monday. “The S&P 500 (^GSPC) soared nearly 3.3% to its highest level since March 3. The Dow Jones Industrial …

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

 

[robo]

Miner Concerns

The status of the daily cycle is obscure. The rally out of the day 18 low only marginally turned the 10 day MA higher. So it is not clear if Tuesday was day 25 or day 7 of a failed daily cycle. It …

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

GDXJ weekly: GDXJ weekly trend moved below the 3 EMA, but so far is holding above the 10 SMA. We shall see how it plays out in then days ahead.

 

[robo]

IWM weekly: I still think the weekly IWM gap will fill before any trending move continues...

 

[robo]

IWM daily after the close: IWM daily did grind higher.

Risk indicators remain high for holding IWM.

I'm currently trading using the daily charts...

 

[robo]

Most of my trading funds remain in VMFXX.... earning around 4.25% when not in the market.

I still be buying and laddering T notes as they come due. I replaced a 100k one today that came due with another one @ 4.31% for 90 days.

Kaplan:

Treasuring Treasuries​

Steven Jon Kaplan
3.83K Followers
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Play(16min)

Summary​

• Investors have become disenchanted with investing in USTs, thereby causing their yields to climb in recent years to their highest levels since the beginning of the century. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, currently 4.431%, is almost 3.5 times the S&P 500 yield of 1.27%.
• The only way the U.S. government can induce sufficient investment in USTs is for their yields to be unusually high, because investors are currently interested in taking the greatest risks possible. This is one of the clearest signs that U.S. stocks are in a dangerous and unsustainable bubble which will be followed by a dramatic collapse.
• In recent weeks, there has been a sharp surge of stories about how the U.S. dollar will lose its role as the world's reserve currency, which is one of the most important reasons, especially for non-U.S. investors, to own USTs.
• An interesting question is which U.S. government bonds to purchase, given the wide range from 4-week U.S. Treasuries to TIPS and I Bonds.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4787530-treasuring-treasuries

 

[robo]

If It’s So Great (Stocks, Gold), Why Is It So Bad (Consumer Sentiment Index)? | Golden Meadow

The breather in PMs and miners was likely (as I wrote yesterday). The breather was natural. And the breather is probably over. And it is not the point of today’s free analysis to discuss the very short-term events (I’m doing this in today’s Alert), bu...

www.goldenmeadow.eu

 

[robo]

IWM weekly: The gap filled on the weekly chart, so what's next for IWM? I sold my RWM Beer money trade when it filled this morning.

TLT daily: A nice bounce after undercutting the $83.71 low... Long some TLT again after tagging the green zone... That's where my limit orders are.

I'm not doing much trading right now.... LOL... Waiting on the next news event

 

[robo]

The Most Dangerous Chart in the Markets – Market Minute

This is the most dangerous chart in the financial markets…

 

[robo]

GDX daily: The move higher continues..... We shall see if buyers can move GDX higher and tag the upper BB next week.

Trump EU tariff talk has moved the dollar lower and gold higher... It looks like that might continue...

What happens to Bonds and rates is another story..

 

[robo]

Retail investors aren't scared of the stock market. That will only make the selloff worse.​

Provided by Dow Jones May 27, 2025, 7:09:00 AM
By Mark Hulbert

Regular investors have been 'buying the dip' aggressively. Remember: Be fearful when others are greedy.

Individual investors' eagerness to "buy the dip" suggests that the stock market is close to a significant top.

I'm referring to the behavior of retail investors in the wake of the stock market's early-April plunge, when the S&P 500 SPX shed more than 12% in just four trading sessions. "An army of amateur investors stepped up to buy the dip with both hands," my MarketWatch colleague Joseph Adinolfi recently reported. "April was one of the most aggressive months of buying by the retail cohort in recent memory."

This bodes ill for the stock market because widespread "buying the dip" behavior among retail investors is a hallmark of market tops, just as reluctance to buy the dip typically occurs near market bottoms.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025052749/retail-investors-arent-scared-of-the-stock-market-that-will-only-make-the-selloff-worse