Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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S Fund and Tariff talk: A nice gap up above the 20 day MA in early trading, as the talk of reduced tariffs is in the news.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/03/24/trump-administration-tariff-announcements-on-april-2-could-be-softer-than-thought-reports.html

Vanguard Indexes: Looking good too. VTI moving back above the 20 day and the 200 day MA. That could bring in some additional buyers...

 

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Some other indexes:

 

[FAAM]

I'm in my 70's and have most of my cash in notes earning around 4.5% right now, and the rest in VMFXX ( my cash settlement fund) I use for trading. I made plenty of trades this month, but the funds are now back in VMFXX as I wait for April tariffs to play out. The data looks very good for a move higher, but I'll pass.

Thank you again for all your time/sharing - as always! I especially thank you now for mentioning that you store your "Cash" in your investment account in a good-interest-paying Money-Market account: I haven't been doing so in my brokerage account - my Cash was in a Sweep-acct earning well-below 1%, so I just looked up yours, then looked up the MM accounts offered by my brokerage (Schwab) & went with that. A little lower rate than yours but close with no minimum.

 

[robo]

Thank you again for all your time/sharing - as always! I especially thank you now for mentioning that you store your "Cash" in your investment account in a good-interest-paying Money-Market account: I haven't been doing so in my brokerage account - my Cash was in a Sweep-acct earning well-below 1%, so I just looked up yours, then looked up the MM accounts offered by my brokerage (Schwab) & went with that. A little lower rate than yours but close with no minimum.

We shall see how the tariff talk plays out in the next few weeks.

I'm keeping my eye on the weekly and monthly data. VTI monthly is back above the 10 month MA, but it sure doesn't look like a YCL. IWM remains below its 10 month MA.

 

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Gold Is Set for a Decline​

BY JEFF CLARK, EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE

The gold sector looks vulnerable to at least a short-term decline – if not something a bit more ominous.

Admittedly, it’s hard to be bearish on gold stocks. The sector has been on fire in 2025. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) started the year near $285 per share. It closed recently near $355. That’s a 25% gain in less than three months – putting the gold sector at the top of the leaderboard so far this year.

Gold Is Set for a Decline – Market Minute

GDX weekly: Week 11, stretched above the 10 week MA, and other overbought indicators flashing a warning sign. Also, keep your eye on the dollar.

Bottom Line: The trend is up, but with more risk!

 

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SPX daily data - if you are trading the daily data: With the BuyALL back to 100, and the VIX tagging the lower BB the index could see some ST trouble. I think the tariff talk could be reduced some next week.

VTI weekly: We shall see if buyers can hold VTI above the 50 week MA. Next week we might see some big swings. I just might have to go back long again....

Monthly index chart:

 

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Gold:

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Gold continues doing what it does best; consolidate, break up, consolidate, break up etc...Note how nicely the 21 day continues to support. Our gold note from earlier today, see here.​

Goldilocks

 

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Bull/Bear: Improving....

 

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TLT monthly: Is the YCL in? If it is I'll be buying some shares, but this move below the 10 month MA doesn't look like the ICL is in.

 

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USD weekly: Did the dollar mark an ICL last week? If it did, and it moves higher for several weeks, some sectors will be under extra selling pressure. We shall see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

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Time to Start Putting Money to Work​

Jeff Clark | Mar 28, 2025 | Market Minute | 4 min read

After three weeks of turbulent action in the stock market, the bulls finally have some good news. One of our most reliable, short-term technical indicators has turned bullish.

The Summation Index for the NYSE flipped to a buy signal earlier this week. Take a look…

Time to Start Putting Money to Work – Market Minute

For now, I will pass on Jeff's NYSI buy signal even if it turns out to be a good one. Waiting on the next tariff comments.

Daily trading chart:

 

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Vanguard Indexes: Indexes I'm currently watching, and looking for trade setups.

Moving lower today:

Bottom Line: There is still way to much uncertainty! Getting closer to the lower gaps and a back test of the March lows....

 

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S Fund daily: Close to filling the lower gap....

Buying a few shares for a possible bounce next week if the tariffs are off again. Keeping it small...