Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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LOL.... I usually buy 5k of VXX if I like the setup...... I say we shall see.... VXF remains on a buy signal for now.......

Markets
Big VIX Options Trade Braces for a 2008-Like Volatility Surge
By Gregory Calderone
October 25, 2019, 4:10 PM EDT

Someone is betting big that the U.S. stock market is on track for the kind of turbulence not seen since the global financial crisis.

Trading in call options on the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, outweighed puts by more than 2-to-1 on Friday with the index at its lowest level since July as stocks rallied. The standout trade was one block of 50,000 April $65 calls that were bought for 10 cents. Those contracts would imply a surge in the VIX of almost 500% from its current level.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...s-trade-braces-for-2008-like-volatility-surge
 
I remain long VXF, but a few indicators are telling us to reduce position size some..... My $CPC/VIX ratio chart and SPY/IWM divergence data is below. When the VIX is hitting the lower BB and the $CPC hits 80 or under, stocks could have some trouble in the days ahead. However, for now the trend remains up and that is how I'm positioned.

I will reduce some today, and sell some VXF. The IWM/SPY divergence continues... The new high for the SPY has still "not" been confirmed by IWM, but the trend remains up so I will trade what is happening - not what I think will happen. This data is for traders...... The Gamma for Natural Gas is looking positive.

Have a nice day.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57913494610&a=695489826

Jeff Clark's Market Minute
This Indicator Is on a Hot Streak
Published October 28, 2019 - 7:30 AM
The single best short-term market timing indicator just flashed a “sell” signal.

We look for extreme conditions in the CBOE Put/Call ratio (CPC) to give us an idea of where the broad stock market might be headed over the next few days.

And, so far this year, the CPC has been 100% accurate as a contrary indicator.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-indicator-is-on-a-hot-streak/
 
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Still seeing some trouble in miner land....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p57643958044&a=694576197

Why Gold Has Stalled
Oct. 25, 2019 4:31 PM ET

Summary
Gold’s strong summer advance stalled out for good reasons. Gold surged to super-overbought levels, sucking in all available near-term buying. Gold-futures speculators’ bets became excessively-bullish exhausting all their buying firepower.

Once gold’s advance flagged, the momentum-driven gold investment demand withered. Speculators’ collective gold-futures bets can stay extreme for some time, but eventually a catalyst hits forcing them to start normalizing.

Gold, silver, and the stocks of their miners are going to remain precarious with serious downside risks until that necessary gold-futures selling comes to pass.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4299257-gold-stalled

The comments about his post are always fun to read...... 102 so far.....
 
I remain long, but did reduce some as the divergence continues...... Love it or hate it the trend for this market remains up..... However, the VIX is currently making another higher low. Maybe investors and traders are putting on a hedge for Fed day....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p67225428846&a=696257687

SevenSentinels @SevenSentinels
2m2 minutes ago

One is the loneliest number.

We'll Discuss This With Prince Dale on FACE Thursday Morning at 9 AM- @ForexStopHunter

Of SPX, DJIA, TRANS, NYA, NASDAQ

Only SPX made a new high

Major Averages Confirming: ZERO

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


thomas
‏

@VolumeDynamics
10m10 minutes ago

$RUT STUBBORNLY STILL GREEN ON THAT SUDDEN MARKET PULLBACK....

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

We should keep punishing the savers to keep the bubble going. ( see tweet below) Spoken like a true member of the billionaire boys club..... None of it matters to me because I trade the trend and it remains up for now...... I still hate this market, but I like the gains I'm currently getting..... The news and comments are nice for short term trading...... Robo

Douglas Kass
‏
Verified account

@DougKass
35m35 minutes ago
MoreDouglas Kass Retweeted Donald J. Trump
This would gut our banking system as has been done in Germany and Japan,
Read history instead of pontificating/tweeting. @realdonaldtrumpDouglas Kass added,
Donald J. Trump
Verified account

@realDonaldTrump
“Over in Europe and Japan they have NEGATIVE RATES. They get paid to borrow money. Don’t we have to follow our competitors?” @Varneyco Yes we do. The Fed doesn’t have a clue! We have unlimited potential, only held back by the Federal Reserve. But we are winning anyway!

https://twitter.com/dougkass?lang=en

Good trading and waiting on the next move based on a tweet or Fed speak....
 
What are they tweeting about!

SentimenTrader
‏
Verified account

@sentimentrader
5h5 hours ago
More
The % of S&P 500 stocks in a correction has fallen to 30% for the first time in more than 100 days.

The 9 other times this happened, $SPX was higher 9 out of 9 times both 6 months and 1 year later

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader


Mohamed A. El-Erian
‏
Verified account

@elerianm
6h6 hours ago
More
Good morning.
Posted yesterday: On what the #Fed is likely to do tomorrow, why and what it tells us about the policy challenges/dilemmas facing #CentralBanks in advanced countries.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...mptom-of-problems-it-can-t-solve?srnd=opinion …
#economy #markets @federalreserve #monetarypolicy #stocks #bonds #investing

https://twitter.com/elerianm

CNBC's Fast Money Retweeted

Trading Nation
‏
Verified account

@TradingNation
4h4 hours ago

Market bull Julian Emanuel goes on pullback watch ahead of this week's Fed decision on interest rates https://cnb.cx/2BSRhcw (via @StephLandsman)

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney

Sven Henrich
‏
Verified account

@NorthmanTrader
3h3 hours ago
More
$SPX hasn't had a down day since the Fed upped its daily repo facility to $120B beginning October 24.

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader

Same old Pinto, but makes some very good points......

Michael Pento – Coming Market Meltdown is Going to be Brutal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx00m6IMrt8
 
Day 5 of the FCG buy signal..... I have a small position at Vanguard...... Day 13 for VXF......

Good Trading!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XES&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81772368498&a=692550855


Morethomas Retweeted thomas
JUICE is the mother's milk for the market... all the fundamentals don't matter until your bank is broke, you can't access your credit cards and the ATMs are closed... in the meantime, it's balls to the wall with this Fantasy World of Financethomas added,
thomas

@VolumeDynamics
See, China probably getting very accustomed to spoiling the market with these comments whenever they feel like it... what they don't get is we've worn out that horse, this thing is trading on JUICE now, nobody cares much about TRADE Wars...
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
 
SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
2h2 hours ago
More
Serious Traders:

Do You Remember 2008?

Soon It Won't Be A Memory - It Will Be Reality

We'll Discuss This Major Opportunity In Detail With Prince Pinkert @forexanalytix

https://twitter.com/ForexStopHunter

On FACE at 9 AM Thursday, November 1

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

$CPC remains under 80, the VIX is around 13.00, the trend is up, and the Fed will cut tomorrow..... It's all good and I remain long, but still hate this market due to the divergence I'm seeing..... With that said I remain long, and the Fed PUT remains in play. How about some negative interests too. Oh, first we need to hit zero..... LOL...Good Trading!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48998686874&a=696293914
 
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The rate cut cycle continues with another cut tomorrow...... Based on the data on my LT rate cycle chart.... It better be different this time...... I remain long as VXF continues to hold above its 10 DMA...... IWM on the LT chart remains above its 20 month MA... (A positive indicator for LT investors) I trade the daily charts not the monthly.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p05787623039&a=692181751
 
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Adding a small VXX position going into tomorrow's Fed speak.... It's a hedge on my remaining VXF position..... This is a short-term trade.... unless they sell the news tomorrow.... Then I will be selling VXF once my systems goes back to a cash position. For now the trend remains up! I will trade some TZA if they sell the news..... Day 13 of the TNA buy signal.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p11136895277&a=696317425

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
 
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Fed Funds Rate History with Its Highs, Lows, and Charts
How Fed Rate Changes Have Changed Through History

https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135

The why I'm hedging... The rate cut day chart..... Maybe some BIG MOVES be coming.... Sell they news? We shall see...... (Long VXF and placed a hedge with VXX) Why not sell VXF..... Well, I don't guess on what the market will do next...... The trend remains up, and my system remains long using the daily data.... I trade the daily data only for VXF at Vanguard.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p11136895277&a=696330430

Crazy Times......


Peter Schiff: Everything Old Is New Again

Tue, 10/29/2019 - 16:25

Trump came out with another tweet last week bashing the Fed and calling it derelict in its duties for not getting interest rates low enough. Peter said Trump is right about one thing.

The Fed is derelict in their duties, but for the opposite reason that he cites. Where the Fed has been derelict is in keeping interest rates too low. They’ve been providing too much of this so-called stimulus to the economy. That’s where they’ve been derelict. They have not been the provider of sound money. They have not provided the fiscal discipline that we want an independent central bank to provide. The whole idea of the independence of the central bank is to prevent the central bank from working with the government to expand the size of government and to expand debt. But that’s what they’ve been doing. And that’s what Donald Trump wants the Fed to do.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-everything-old-new-again

Get ready for some fun tomorrow!!!!
 
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VXF ( I remain long) moved below the 10 DMA, but buyers came in..... I use the closing prices so still waiting to see how this plays out..... XES and FCG getting hit hard too.... XES and FCG is a dollar trade based on a move by the dollar much lower, and I will be trading NUGT too once I like the setup......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XES&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94538081811&a=692182569

The dollar ( green line) XES ( purple line) please compare using the LT data chart below. Now will it be different this time using the 2008 and 2019 data? Don't know, but I track these data points for possible buying ops....

The LT monthly data chart that includes the dollar and XES...... Note the relationship of these two at market tops.... I would say XES has a huge move coming "IF" it's not different this time.... I wait and watch this data for a possible buying op!

Look at this updated chart - It's called rotation, or moving to higher levels (decks) of the Titanic as it went down.... It worked for awhile (a trade) but in the end everything gets sold. Some Hedge Fund Mangers would say you just have sell what you can once the sellers just want out....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p03993400106&a=696733759
 
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robo said:
VXF ( I remain long) moved below the 10 DMA, but buyers came in..... I use the closing prices so still waiting to see how this plays out..... XES and FCG getting hit hard too.... XES and FCG is a dollar trade based on a move by the dollar much lower, and I will be trading NUGT too once I like the setup......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XES&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94538081811&a=692182569

The dollar ( green line) XES ( purple line) please compare using the LT data chart below. Now will it be different this time using the 2008 and 2019 data? Don't know, but I track these data points for possible buying ops....

The LT monthly data chart that includes the dollar and XES...... Note the relationship of these two at market tops.... I would say XES has a huge move coming "IF" it's not different this time.... I wait and watch this data for a possible buying op!

Look at this updated chart - It's called rotation, or moving to higher levels (decks) of the Titanic as it went down.... It worked for awhile (a trade) but in the end everything gets sold. Some Hedge Fund Mangers would say you just have sell what you can once the sellers just want out....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p03993400106&a=696733759
Click to expand...

I added $HUI on the LT data chart since I will be trading the miners.... (Orange Line)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p09847430337&a=696751075

The Bottom line: Note the dollar, $HUI and XES once a the dollar moves down..... Other indexes will perform well to, but this is what I will be trading once VXF moves back to a cash position. With all that said it might not happen and that's fine too.

Because I trade what I see happening not what I think will happen. However, this is a historical data chart and gives me clues of what might happen. I'm just looking for a possible setup if it does.....

VXF/IWM is barley holding on to a buy signal..... I could be moving to cash today for that position..... Watching the close, and will decide the last few minutes. I had already reduced 1/2 and I'm currently hedged, but I trade the signals even if I get whipsawed...... I just buy the position back.... No more then 20% of my funds in the current market.....

Have a nice day! The data above is for traders.....
 
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1965Vintage said:
Removed
Click to expand...

I don't mind if they just cry, but I think more protests and civil unrest is coming as we get closer to the election.... Like I said.....crazy times..... We have so much hate out there against groups of people and even the Congress are turning into real haters from both sides....
 
VXF and IWM - Well, the RSI is turning down some, MACD has a baby curl moving down, but the bottom line is that IWM and VXF both closed above their 10 DMAs on my daily trading chart.... This is after both moved below today.... I don't care what the SPY does, because I trade Small and Mid cap stocks and they general leading the general trend. However, I will remian long no matter how much I hate this market until my system tells me to move to a cash position.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p23788110704&a=693601186

Did we just see a lower high on my IWM daily trading chart? Stay tuned...... I call the S Fund the market - around 4500 stocks. Not the DOW (30 stocks) or the S&P 500 ( 500 stocks). If IWM can't make a new all time high it remains a problem for the Bulls.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

Good Trading!
 
Gold - A possible lower high again.... GDX back under the 50 DMA and the 10 DMA be up next..... Still on a buy signal, but I'm waiting to see how this plays out....

Flat NUGT.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p89708081626&a=694576197

Will this move down be below Delta neutral or Gamma neutral..... Don't know, but waiting for a better setup..... The odds favor a move down so I remain on the sidelines. I trade the miners and don't hold them for an investment....
 
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