Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Sort by newest Sort by date
The last time the current extremes were hit was late July. After that VXF had a (-8%) move down in the weeks that followed. However, for now the trend remains up, and I'm on a hold long position. We shall see how this data plays out this time....

Note the black dotted vertical line on the chart, and the VIX at 12.07 in July. It just repeated, but it's the combined data points "of all the other indicators" I use that increase the odds for a pull-back. Only 3 of the indicators I track are on the VXF daily trend trading chart below, but they are important ones. My system remains long, but the warning indicators are hitting extremes.


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p94346435732&a=698911440

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
 
Jeff Clark's Market Minute
Forget the Yield Curve Inversion. Now’s the Time to Be Concerned…
Published November 11, 2019 - 7:30 AM
Treasury bond prices have collapsed.

As a result, long-term interest rates have increased. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has jumped from 1.5% a few weeks ago to 1.95% today.

And, Wall Street is saying, “Whew.”

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

The 11/09/19 Weekend Report Preview
Posted on November 9, 201


Stocks printed their higher s point on Thursday, day 25, to lock in a right translated daily cycle formation. Friday was day 26, which places stocks 4 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The right translated cycle formation has us expecting stocks to print a higher daily cycle low. Stocks have established a daily cycle trend line. So a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/11/09/the-11-09-19-weekend-report-preview/
 
Last edited:
"Negative Rates" Crazy in my opinion.....

Trump Talks Trade, Praises Negative Rates At Economic Club Of New York
Tue, 11/12/2019 - 13:00

The president reiterated his criticism of the Fed, which he has repeatedly bashed for not cutting interest rates sooner. Yet, this time he actually called for the central bank to consider cutting rates into negative territory like they have in Europe.

When Trump's praise of negative interest rates only evoked a brief burst of applause, Trump remarked that "only the smart people are clapping."

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-trump-talks-trade-economic-club-new-york
 
4 Reasons Why A Volatility Event Is On The Horizon
Jason Goepfert

Published: 2019-11-13 at 11:17:30 CST
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

Volatility event

Several indicators influenced by the options market are throwing off concerning readings, showing that traders have become complacent about the current trend.

We’re currently seeing weeks of low put/call readings, with low premiums being paid for put protection, very low expectations for an imminent volatility event, and heavy betting against a rise in volatility by speculators.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/4-reasons-why-a-volatility-event-is-on-the-horizon/
 
The first day in 24 IWM closed below its 10 DMA..... VXF remains on a hold long position and VXX remains on a sell position. I remain flat due to the extremes showing up on several of the indicators I track.... We shall see if IWM is trying to tell us something soon... The SPX is overbought going into Friday's OPTX.....

Good Luck to those holding long positions..... As a contrarian The Risk Reward remains to high for me.......With that said, my system remains long (VXF), but IWM went to a sell signal today..... Whipsaw???? Maybe.... Waiting to look over the new data later tonight...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p45423582443&a=699284166


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p49364473314&a=698911440
 
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

8m
Over the past 7 days, the S&P 500 is up more than 0.5%.

6 of those 7 days have seen negative breadth on the NYSE.

The last time that happened was December 16, 1999.

(h/t
@MacroCharts
for the concept)
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

1h
Over the past 50 days, investors have shifted away from defensive assets (e.g. low volatility stocks) into the S&P 500.

When the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index fell over the past 50 days while $SPX rallied more than 5% (e.g. now), stocks almost always fell over the next few weeks

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

My LT data chart below.

In Dec 1999 the market did move down some the next several weeks, but went on to make another new all time high. This is just historical data and not a guess at what I think will happen, I just trade what is happening not what I think will happen

See the party like it's 1999 here... I marked that time frame with a vertical red line.... The SPX did move below the 10 Month moving average so a scary move for some investors.... I trade using the daily.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p22418560741&a=696890125

I do not use this for trading, but track cycles from two different sources.....

Raj Times and Cycles

Raj Time and Cycles Daily Email is for both Stock market Swing traders and Day traders, trading the SP emini, ETFs, etc. Precise Master Timing makes all the difference! We use various proprietary Master Time & Cycle techniques to predict future Swing Highs and Lows+/-1,using Change in Trend (CIT) dates. For the Daytraders, we pinpoint the intraday CIT Times for the Highs and Lows +/- 5-10 minutes. We also use an intraday cycle technique that predicts the intraday Highs and Lows.

https://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-master-cycle-suggests-november-14.html

The two I follow.....

Stocks: Big risk, Gold: Big potential

Smart Money Tracker -

Likesmoney

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/
 
Last edited:
robo said:
The first day in 24 IWM closed below its 10 DMA..... VXF remains on a hold long position and VXX remains on a sell position. I remain flat due to the extremes showing up on several of the indicators I track.... We shall see if IWM is trying to tell us something soon... The SPX is overbought going into Friday's OPTX.....

Good Luck to those holding long positions..... As a contrarian The Risk Reward remains to high for me.......With that said, my system remains long (VXF), but IWM went to a sell signal today..... Whipsaw???? Maybe.... Waiting to look over the new data later tonight...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p45423582443&a=699284166


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p49364473314&a=698911440
Click to expand...

IWM continues to have trouble staying above its 10 DMA.... Day 2 as I watch and look over additional extremes as this market moves higher with low volume, and IWM remains below the 10 DMA. Low Volume is easy to move the market for the BOTS. Just not many sellers as the herd continues to buy stocks, and the Baby Boomer's are buying more stock too.... LOL.... With ZIRP or maybe neg rates around the corner I understand why.... Waiting to see how this plays out as I watch from the sidelines....

'OK, Boomer' Stop Buying Stocks, Fidelity Warns
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/14/2019 - 09:45


Fidelity Investments in its third-quarter retirement report has a new warning for its greedy baby boomer clients: portfolio risk has never been higher as retirees are overly exposed to equities, running a serious risk that the next market meltdown could wipe out their retirement accounts, reported Bloomberg.

The report notes more than 33% of baby boomer clients have exceeded Fidelity's recommended allocation to equities.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/ok-boomer-stop-buying-stocks-fidelity-warns




SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
14m14 minutes ago
More
1:15 We examined all instances (there were 6) in the last six years where SPX made new ATHs while McClellan read -10 or lower:
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

The results were probably not very good.....

Day 4 since the VIX hit 12.07. It jumped to 25ish after 8 trading days in July after hitting 12.07..... We shall see how this data plays out, as the extremes continue to get more extreme.... VXF remains on a hold long position for those that don't care about Risk Management.... I remain flat..... Waiting for the VXX buy signal.... Good Trading and investors enjoy the show....
 
Last edited:
Well, for MT traders and investors the weekly data supports a hold long position. However, I trade the daily....

SPY - hold long positions, IWM - hold long positions, VXF hold long positions..... I'm still waiting and watching XES...

All above their 10 WMA......

All of these indexes are on my weekly data chart below.

Good investing if you use the weekly or monthly data....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XES&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90524459207&a=700121703
 
VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Chris Vermeulen

,FX Empire•November 18, 2019

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.


VIX VALUE DROPS BEFORE MONTHLY EXPIRATION

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically very low level is usually associated with an extreme peak in price. Throughout history, after the VIX has collapsed to these types of low price levels, the markets have a tendency to revert/correct in ranges that are typically in excess of 3.5% to 5.5%. In some cases, these corrections have been as large as 11% to 18% or more.

c18f8ae72f0424e78ffa77dd60262d18



CURRENT CONTINOUS VIX PRICE CHART

The current VIX level, near 12, is near the lowest historical levels of the past 12 months.

Every time the VIX has fallen to near these levels, a peak in price has set up within just a few days potentially. Each time this setup has occurred, the price has rotated/corrected downward by at least 5.5%. Is that about to happen again in the US markets?


More:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vix-warns-imminent-market-correction-110939331.html




​


 
https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/in...a-plays-the-stall-card-to-extract-more/page-4



Posted Today, 10:26 AM

12SPX, on 18 Nov 2019 - 09:07 AM, said:

Hate to say but all these same guys have been saying were going to see corrections on forward dates for a while now and it still hasn't come so I'd take heed here. Best to go with the trend but will add that this has turned into a sick market rise now so keep your stops tight cause it could turn for no reason at all and we could are down -2% in a blink of an eye.

Yep..... 28 days since my buy signal and some systems have been stopped out a few times during the current move up..... LOL.... at some point they will be correct I guess..... Lots of warning indicators, but to go short against the trend using triple leverage is very poor trading in my opinion..... I'm flat and waiting on a VXX buy signal.... The VXX trend remains DOWN until it's NOT..... Bottom line - The SPY trend remains up, and VXX remains down.... I wait for my daily signal to change before buying VXX. IWM still having trouble. So many systems out there that are such a waste of money.....



Ignore the noise, talking heads, etc..... IF YOU ARE a TRADER! I just trade the daily trends.... LOL... Investors good luck.....


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p25222849081&a=700913601






SevenSentinels‏ @SevenSentinels 2h2 hours ago
More
Monday 9:50: Daily LOLR STS Up Down Down 3/4 5/2 0/7 STS SELL Signal at 9:50 AM



https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 
James48843 said:
[FONT=&]VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Chris Vermeulen

,FX Empire•November 18, 2019
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]
The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.


VIX VALUE DROPS BEFORE MONTHLY EXPIRATION

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically very low level is usually associated with an extreme peak in price. Throughout history, after the VIX has collapsed to these types of low price levels, the markets have a tendency to revert/correct in ranges that are typically in excess of 3.5% to 5.5%. In some cases, these corrections have been as large as 11% to 18% or more.

c18f8ae72f0424e78ffa77dd60262d18



CURRENT CONTINOUS VIX PRICE CHART

The current VIX level, near 12, is near the lowest historical levels of the past 12 months.

Every time the VIX has fallen to near these levels, a peak in price has set up within just a few days potentially. Each time this setup has occurred, the price has rotated/corrected downward by at least 5.5%. Is that about to happen again in the US markets?


More:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vix-warns-imminent-market-correction-110939331.html




​


[/FONT]
Click to expand...

My VIX chart... When I'm long VXF I somtimes hedge using VXX at Vanguard. When I'm flat stocks I wait for a VXX buy signal.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p99761129397&a=700872155

Jeff Clark's Market Minute
I Can’t Keep My Eyes Off This Chart
Published November 18, 2019 - 7:30 AM
The champagne corks were popping on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 28,000 for the first time ever. The S&P 500 conquered the 3100 level for the first time ever. Investors coasted into the weekend, and into the normally quite strong second half of November with a bullish wind at their backs.

The S&P 500 is already up more than 3% so far this month. That’s 3%… in just over two weeks! The index is up about 25% for the year. And, we’re just now entering the seasonally bullish period.

A little champagne is justified here.

But, I just can’t keep my eyes off one thing…

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
 
Getting closer "IF" we repeat..... For now the trend remains up.....

My updated VIX chart..... Waiting for a buy signal - I will be trading VXX at Vanguard..... Delta and Gamma data indicates above average odds for a move back under 3k for SPX or 300 for SPY. That doesn't mean it will, it's just another warning signal that they are currently overbought....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p36300552749&a=700872155
 
I trade the daily, but I like to look over LT data....

https://kimblechartingsolutions.com...ng-top-of-77-year-rising-channel-nov-18-1.jpg

My chart below..... The 2000 and 2008 data doesn't include QE or whatever one calls it..... Tops "IF or WHEN" it happens are different these days.... More computers trading these markets now then ever before, and with unlimited buying power! The savers don't have a chance if they have their money in the local credit union. I have NO IDEA how much higher this market will go, but the trend remains up!

A BT of the 10 month MA looks like it be getting very close now..... LOL.... We shall see! Note that IWM "DID" test its all time high just before a big sell-off after trending sideways for around 8 months. LOL... Repeat?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p79822522352&a=696733759
 
Watching XES for the next buy signal, but not licking my chops.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p56217252792&a=700869841

Billionaires Are Licking Their Chops Over Distressed U.S. Oil And Gas Assets
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/19/2019 - 12:38

Like the vultures Elizabeth Warren claims they are, billionaires are now circling over the soon-to-be dead corpses of companies in the U.S. oil and gas patch, as they look to pick up assets on the cheap.

This comes at the same time that the volatility (read: decimation) of the oil and gas industry has scared off many other investors, according to Bloomberg.

Like the vultures Elizabeth Warren claims they are, billionaires are now circling over the soon-to-be dead corpses of companies in the U.S. oil and gas patch, as they look to pick up assets on the cheap.

This comes at the same time that the volatility (read: decimation) of the oil and gas industry has scared off many other investors, according to Bloomberg.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bi...r-chops-over-distressed-us-oil-and-gas-assets
 
A HYG sell signal. Will it be a whipsaw or the start of something? Watching since I'm flat..... HYG is on my chart below, and is now below its 10 DMA again. It has been moving sideways for weeks and looks weak.... The reason I track it too Jeff explains below. The warning signals keep adding up, but this market continues to trend higher.... That keeps me flat based on the Risk Reward data... This will be day 30 since the daily VXF buy signal, and the VXX sell signal..... A very nice move up....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p10774284316&a=699284166

Jeff Clark's Market Minute
This Small Loss Could Be a BIG Deal
Published November 20, 2019 - 7:30 AM
Junk bonds had a bad day yesterday.

While the S&P 500 continued to levitate near all-time highs, the high-yield bond market got hit with some selling pressure. The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) dropped 0.36%.

Skeptics will scoff at that action. They’ll say HYG is up more than 12% for the year so far. A one-day loss of 0.36% is nothing.

But… it could be a big deal.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/



Douglas Kass
@DougKass

1h
Rev Can you forward the column you recently wrote on
@realmoney
regarding utilizing charts/technical analysis in a backdrop of machines and algos? Incorporating in my opener.
@RevShark
Quote Tweet

James DePorre
@RevShark
· 1h
Good morning. Looking a bit soft out there but the key is the dip buyers. When that changes it is time to react.
@realmoney @dougkass @jimcramer


https://twitter.com/dougkass?lang=en
 
Last edited:
Marks of a Phase Transition
Print Friendly, PDF & Email




John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

Interim Comment: November 20, 2019

By the time a bull market reaches its peak, investors have experienced numerous instances where the market has declined by several percent, followed by an advance to fresh highs. Indeed, the advancing half-cycle since 2009 has included 3 separate declines in excess of 10%, 9 interim declines in excess of 5%, and 17 interim declines in excess of 3%.

That apparent “resilience” during a bull market contributes to a distinct sort of complacency, illustrated by this quote from Barron’s Magazine on February 3, 1969, after the S&P 500 had already quietly started a bear market that would take stocks down by more than one-third over the next 18 months, and would leave S&P 500 Index below its 1968 peak even 14 years later:
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs191120/
 
robo said:
Marks of a Phase Transition

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

Interim Comment: November 20, 2019

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs191120/
Click to expand...

More from that commentary...

Here and now, however, we observe features characteristic of a “phase transition,” with the potential for severe market losses – not just a steep initial plunge including single-day losses on the order of 3% or more, but much more extended losses, which we continue to estimate on the order of 50-65% over the completion of this cycle.
Click to expand...

:blink:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top