Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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IT TOP: almost there! BEARS capitulating, FOMO frenzy....
Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:08 PM

https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/in...-almost-there-bears-capitulating-fomo-frenzy/

My updated chart..... I update them weekly....... For the record: I trade VXF, but the most important index to me is IWM...... The Bulls (buyers) continue to move this lagging index (divergence and non-confirming of the SPY) higher, but in the red zone again..... We shall see if it can move to new all time highs too in the weeks ahead.... However, my system remains long!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p78190176038&a=697262130

Gold and the miners (GDXJ) - day 7 closing above the 10 DMA ( that is a hold long for me) The odds still favor a move down for gold -under 1450ish min.... ( I said ODDS)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p92322336768&a=697111492

Have a nice weekend!
 
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Manufacturing is now officially in recession,
despite Trump’s vow to boost industry

90
[COLOR=var(--primaryTextColor)][FONT=var(--secondaryHeadlineFont)]President Trump visits the Joint Systems Manufacturing Center in Lima, Ohio, earlier this year to address employees.
(Craig J. Orosz / Associated Press)
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[FONT=var(--secondaryHeadlineFont)]By DON LEESTAFF WRITER​
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[FONT=var(--bodyFont)]WASHINGTON —[/FONT][FONT=var(--bodyFont)]During President Trump’s first two years in office, his standing with many voters was buoyed by a surge in manufacturing that helped create millions of jobs and undergirded the whole U.S. economy.

But today, manufacturing has plunged into recession and is threatening to pull down other sectors, perhaps hitting hardest on supporters in those states that helped put Trump in office.
Impeachment may be dominating the news, but the less-noticed industrial slump ultimately could pose a greater threat to Trump’s reelection.

As measured by the Federal Reserve, manufacturing output shrank over two straight quarters this year. That’s the common definition of recession.

A separate, widely followed index drawn from purchasing managers showed September’s contraction in manufacturing was the steepest since June 2009, with production, inventories and new orders all falling.
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[/FONT] More: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-10-09/despite-trump-vow-manufacturing-in-recession




That's it- two consecutive quarters with shrinking manufacturing output- the GM strike, combined with Boeing's halt of the 737-Max shipments, is really affecting the Manufacturing sector.
What happens in THIS QUARTER is going to be looked at very closely to see where the economy is headed.
 
"That's it- two consecutive quarters with shrinking manufacturing output- the GM strike, combined with Boeing's halt of the 737-Max shipments, is really affecting the Manufacturing sector.
What happens in THIS QUARTER is going to be looked at very closely to see where the economy is headed."

The Fed knows what is going on and has started a rate cut cycle.... It's also pumping money to it's primary dealers.... ( so stocks keep going higher) Will it be enough to prevent a recession and a Bear Market..... Don't know, but for now the trend remains up....

SPY hitting all time highs and the Fed started a rate cut cycle...... This should be good...... My VXF system remains long...... I hate this market, but I trade what is happening not what I thinks will happen..... Day 17 above the 10 DMA and I use the closing prices for my system.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p25700472284&a=696330430

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

Again, the SPY hitting new all time highs and the Fed started a rate cut cycle..... They be scared about something Brother!

The LT data with the rate cut cycle.......


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p22418560741&a=696890125


Not many even any care about this anymore.... ( The Feds balance sheet) LOL... The trend remains up so just hold your nose when you go long, or just trend trade and don't worry be happy and enjoy the gains you are making.... Some day the dollar with be worth half the current value and inflation will be the talk on CNBC..... Remember the 80's... See the prime lending rate on my LT chart below.



https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p05787623039&a=696733743

This chart includes the 1980's WTH.... 15% RATES.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-24&id=p52109578615&a=680419612

Fed's Balance Sheet Soars Above $4 Trillion: Up $250 Billion Since Repo Crisis

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-balance-sheet-soars-above-4-trillion-250-billion-repo-crisis


sTweets, current page. Tweets & replies Media

SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
57m57 minutes ago

What Happened When Weekly RSI for SPX dropped to just 64 at a new SPX High? Hint: Sept 1, 2000, October 11, 2007, & Today

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp0elsMJ50I
 
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So since the weekly chart was mentioned above and on the video.... It's the 10th week the SPY has closed above it's 10 WMA..... For MT trading it's a hold your long position..... However, I don't trade the SPY using data from a weekly chart. I trade the VXF using the daily data chart.

The RSI data is a good point, but I don't trade based on good points either - I just monitor them. You can see the RSI on VXF has the same problem.... Lower highs....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25111309532&listNum=1&a=690411575

Have a nice night....
 
I haven't seen many 65's..... and VXF also has a ugly black candle..... We should start seeing some increased selling pressure this week.... I Reduced some more before the close, but I remain long VXF...... Odds increasing that both of those gaps could be filling soon on my VXF chart.... That would mean a BT of the 10 DMA......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p99940956266&a=696942523

From Tom's report.....

"There's also a larger open gap down near 2950"

That would get us close to Delta neutral..... Good odds on that one filling too...... My system remains on a hold long position, but I have reduced position size some more, and taken some gains...... I might put a small VXX hedge position on again....

Yep.... the VIX back under 13 and a 65 for $CPC data...... LOL.... nothing to worry about..... The Fed has got this.....Maybe they do.....We shall see..... Hate it if you want, but the trend remains up.....

Jeff Clark's Market Minute
Folks Are a Little Too Comfortable Right Now
Published November 04, 2019 - 7:30 AM
Volatility has collapsed.

Heading into October, the Volatility Index (VIX) was trading above 20. It was approaching its highest level of the year. Folks were starting to panic.

What a difference one month makes…

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high. Meanwhile, the Volatility Index closed near 12. That’s near its lowest level of the year.

Investors are comfortable. Maybe too comfortable.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/folks-are-a-little-too-comfortable-right-now/




thomas
@VolumeDynamics

$VIX Gap Up today DID NOT FILL...

thomas
@VolumeDynamics

I've looked at this... every big move in the $VIX starts with a GAP UP that does not fill... today's Gap Fill would be at 12.30... so let's see what happens...

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
 
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LOL..... A continuation of the above.... We all know, and the trend remains up for now....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37215584638&a=695489826

Peter Schiff: It's Not A 'Great Economy' Driving Stocks; It's The Fed
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/04/2019 - 19:30

But now the Fed is basically saying it’s going to wait until inflation is clearly a problem.

This is a green light to the stock market. ‘Hey, don’t worry. The Fed has got your back. We’ve got the Powell Put in place. Buy stocks.'”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-its-not-great-economy-driving-stocks-its-fed
 
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Stocks may be rallying to records, but the earnings outlook is darkening

KEY POINTS

The S&P 500 forward earnings year-over-year growth has slowed to less than 1% from a cycle peak of 23% just 14 months ago, UBS says.

Declining earnings expectations don’t bode well for stocks as the last six times in the past 35 years have all seen compression in stock valuation and declines in the S&P 500, the bank says.

“There is no debate on S&P 500 forward earnings: a contraction appears imminent,” says UBS equity strategist Francois Trahan. “An actual contraction in forward earnings usually spells a difficult backdrop for the overall equity market.”
Click to expand...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/sto...ds-but-the-earnings-outlook-is-darkening.html
 
I'm still hedged using VXX at Vanguard.... My system remains long VFX for now, but I reduced my long position a few days ago.....

Day 18 above the 10 DMA (long for my system) Starting to see some problems, but I don't fight the trend "NO" matter how much I "HATE" this market.... I trade what is happening "NOT" what I think will happen.

Long ( VXF, but hedged with VXX) VXX is a $7.00 dollar trade at Vanguard, but VXF is always free. I only buy a small position of VXX when hedging....

VXX and VXF are both on this daily trading chart....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52641890905&a=697880811

‏I will continue to point out IWM is the most important index to me, and that is why you will see it as the main index on my charts most of the time.

I'm not posting my VST or day-trades here at TSP...... Only the trend trading trades....

Good trading to all and have a nice day!
 
Some good comments at the link below about trend trading. I follow my system, and sometimes it's very hard to do. I "DO NOT" buy a market trending down and below the 10 DMA.... Especially when it's below the 50 DMA too. I do sometimes VST trade very oversold markets, but that is much different then trend trading.... I have his service, but don't take his trades because my system buys and sells using the daily 10 DMA and his waits longer. ( which is good for investors) I keep his service because it is cheap and it works well my my system. I don't mind paying for advice. Tom does a very good job here providing data at a good price. Just remember that in the end we must all be responsible for our trades. Years ago I would blame others, but now I just follow my system. , I still have a few paid services and use them to look for clues of the next trend change "BEFORE" it happens.... Some indicators out there are tells... However, in the end I just trade the trend.

Beliefs of Successful Market Timers

Successful market timers, meaning profitable market timers, have several common beliefs that help them achieve consistent profits.

On the flip side of this, those who are unsuccessful also have a set of common beliefs.

It is a good idea to know which beliefs will help you to succeed, and which ones you may have, that need to be changed.

Beliefs of Successful Market Timers

1. I will not jump into a trade before or after a signal just so that I can be participating.

2. I recognize that discipline is not a concept, it is an absolute necessity. The markets have a way of removing money from undisciplined market timers.

3. I realize that what happens today, this week, or even this month, is not what is important. What "is" important is my success over time.

4. I realize that losses are part of trading. No strategy is without losses.

5. I accept that sometimes my investments will under perform the market, knowing that over time, they will outperform the market.

6. I know that following a timing strategy through good times and bad are what will make me successful.

7. I can follow a strategy for the long haul and stick with it, even when at times it is discouraging.

8. I accept that following a timing strategy will require me to make frequent trades that may seem like mistakes. A string of small losses will not make me quit.


https://www.fibtimer.com/about/prior_commentaries.asp
 
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So what happens when $GOLD, GLD, and IAU all get this far above their 200 DMA? We get lots of sideways movement until the distance is closed some.... Why and how it got so far above its 200 DMA (leveraged buyers) Adam explains well in my opinion.... Delta neutral is around 1450ish so that's a test I'm looking for.... Doesn't mean it will happen....

My daily trend trading chart... The buyers are coming in so another test of the 10 DMA and the 50 DMA could be coming soon..... I will watch and wait for the next signal.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p53040188836&a=698017863

GDX and NUGT both remain in a cash position for me. GDX below its 50 DMA and its 10 DMA..... Not Bullish data for my trading system, but investors in this sector are a different group of folks.... I trade "ONLY" the indexes and own NO physical gold.

Why Gold Has Stalled
Adam Hamilton October 25, 2019

Successful trading isn’t about doing what you want to do, but what you ought to do. While you won’t win every time, the goal is to only trade big when the odds are most in your favor. A poker player who bets big holding a hand with just two pairs isn’t brave, but a fool. The smart ones won’t throw all-in unless they are holding something strong like a full house or four-of-a-kind. Probabilities need to offer high chances of success.


That self-feeding buying frenzy last summer catapulted gold to extremely-overbought levels. The bigger and faster price gains, the greater the odds unsustainable overboughtness will result. After decades of study, my favorite indicator for quantifying overboughtness is where prices trade relative to their trailing 200-day moving averages. I developed a trading system around this over 15 years ago, called Relativity.

Why Gold Has Stalled
 
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Starting to see a few more sentiment extremes. The Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread is getting to an extreme too. I'm going to reduce some more tomorrow.... Tomorrow will be day 20 for my buy signal (the closing price of VXF above its 10 DMA). The ugly black candle now has two red ones under its belt...

Starting to see some curls on the RSI and the MACD and IWM still in the trouble zone. I'm not saying one should sell everything, (my system remains long) but taking some gains off the table, after a 19 day move up, is good Risk Management if you are a trader. Investors enjoy the show....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p49009353674&a=696942523

Waiting to see how this plays out.....



SentimenTrader

@sentimentrader
Nov 5


Bullish much? Options traders on the ISE exchange bought 238 calls for every 100 puts today. That's the most since December 2005.

The last time they bought > 2 calls for every 1 put was in September. It hasn't happened too many times over the past decade.

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
 
robo said:
Starting to see a few more sentiment extremes. The Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread is getting to an extreme too. I'm going to reduce some more tomorrow.... Tomorrow will be day 20 for my buy signal (the closing price of VXF above its 10 DMA). The ugly black candle now has two red ones under its belt...

Starting to see some curls on the RSI and the MACD and IWM still in the trouble zone. I'm not saying one should sell everything, (my system remains long) but taking some gains off the table, after a 19 day move up, is good Risk Management if you are a trader. Investors enjoy the show....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p49009353674&a=696942523

Waiting to see how this plays out.....

"The spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence" - This comment is below and in the past has been trouble for the market overall....



SentimenTrader

@sentimentrader
Nov 5


Bullish much? Options traders on the ISE exchange bought 238 calls for every 100 puts today. That's the most since December 2005.

The last time they bought > 2 calls for every 1 put was in September. It hasn't happened too many times over the past decade.

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
Click to expand...


SentimenTrader Blog

Daily Report: Money Markets' Mysterious Rise; Sentiment Extremes Spike
2019-11-06 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report
Assets in money market funds look extreme, potentially a contrary indicator, but relative to equities they're not extreme, and rapid 12-month rises in assets have not been a consistent buy signal; The spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence widened to -55%; Hong Kong stocks are showing buying interest; Chile is the most-hated market

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/
 
For those that like to track patterns like I do. The current data is very close to Jan 23, 2018 data. The SPY lost around 10% in the days that followed, before it bottomed. I can't wait to see what happens this time. I used three data points that I track on my daily charts that combined have a pretty good track record. However, in this market it could be different this time. Please note the date on this chart..... I trade the trend, but these data points should not be ignored in my opinion.

The red vertical line marks the date. The chart starts on Jan 2018. The first data point is when the $CPC hit 64.... We just hit a 65.... that is only one of the data points, but a important one.... We shall see what happens in the days ahead, and if we get a new sell signal and a repeat of the old pattern. For now the trend remains up, but with lots of extremes showing upon using the data points I track.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&st=2018-01-06&en=2018-06-18&id=p73603288765&a=698334795
 
21 days on the long side for VXF, and the trend remains up! (Hold long positions)

IWM still having some trouble in the red zone...... The $CPC and The Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread hitting extremes. Two of the four important indicators I track for Risk Management. I use it to help me determine the size of my long position during the current cycle. Which is getting long for the daily cycle....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p94895792067&a=698420604
 
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I'm going flat even though my daily trend trading system remains on a buy signal (It remain long). ( This flat position is for my daily trend trading system using VXF at Vanguard). I will be only VST and day-trading in the short-term using a different account until the warning indicators I use changes from this current extreme level.... Risk Management..... These indicators are currently giving very high odds of a pull-back. However, that doesn't mean it will happen soon or it might not even happen at all. Again, this is a Risk Management Call after a nice run....

Updated VXF daily trend trading chart..... LOL.... It's easy money Friday today so we "should" close green.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p71530933450&a=698420604

I'm currently VST trading 3 indexes, but I will not be posting them here at TSP.....

I did buy some GDXJ today.... a small tranche...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p94650752115&a=698427765

Have a nice day! LOL.... you have to love those tweets if you are long.

SentimenTrader
‏
Verified account

@sentimentrader
5h5 hours ago

Whoa, the Trump Tweet-O-Meter is staging a furious comeback.

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
 
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