Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Sort by newest Sort by date
A few of the traders I track on twitter......


SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
4h4 hours ago
More
Tuesday 10:00:

Daily LOLR STS

Down Up Down

4/3 7/0 5/2



SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
2h2 hours ago
More
12:00

Loss of momentum:

https://sevensentinels.com/october-15-2019-intra-day/ …


Morethomas Retweeted 0range Crush
Think like the criminals... if they can get the market to forget about the trade war and just trade on the liquidity pouring in, then the trade war goes to page 14 of the NY Times and we party on...thomas added,
0range Crush

@0rangeCru5h
#China saying No Deal unless US Removes current Tariffs
How do you think #Trump is reacting to this development?
#ChinaTrade
$SPX…



https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


SentimenTrader
‏
Verified account

@sentimentrader
4m4 minutes ago
More
This would be the 4th time in ~6 months that the S&P 500 has rallied from being down at least 4% from its peak to climb back to within 1%.

This is the most recovery attempts in such a short window since...well, ever. Before today, it had never attempted more than 3.


Tweets, current page. Tweets & replies Media

David Rosenberg
‏

@EconguyRosie
5h5 hours ago
More
I chuckled as I saw the weekend press gush over a Canadian employment report that showed a net loss of private wage & salaried workers. If you work for the government or for yourself, you're hired!

2 replies11 retweets68 likes
Reply 2 Retweet 11 Like 68

David Rosenberg
‏

@EconguyRosie
7h7 hours ago
More
Thirteen talks over eighteen months and the best we get are four to five more weeks of talks to get to something called Phase 1, which is just a collection of easy concessions cobbled together eons ago. Facade!

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en


James DePorre
‏

@RevShark
34m34 minutes ago
More
if today's bank reports are establishing a theme for third quarter earnings reports, then this market is in good shape.

1 reply1 retweet10 likes
Reply 1 Retweet 1 Like 10

James DePorre
‏

@RevShark
40m40 minutes ago
More
Biotech $IBB up 2% today. That is a group we need to turn if we are going to have better speculative trading.

2 replies0 retweets4 likes
Reply 2 Retweet Like 4

James DePorre
‏

@RevShark
3h3 hours ago
More
This certainly feels a bit squeezy

https://twitter.com/RevShark/
 
The Bulls (LOL..... - the Buy BOTS) will try and keep IWM above the 200 DMA today.... That could send out some buy signals..... I'm still waiting to see how this plays out.... Risk Management - because VXF is back on a buy signal for my system, but I'm still going to wait based on a few other indicators....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p44937385236&a=693406838

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
 
robo said:
The Bulls (LOL..... - the Buy BOTS) will try and keep IWM above the 200 DMA today.... That could send out some buy signals..... I'm still waiting to see how this plays out.... Risk Management - because VXF is back on a buy signal for my system, but I'm still going to wait based on a few other indicators....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p44937385236&a=693406838

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Click to expand...

Yep..... got some buy signals today. Will it be a whipsaw or the real deal.... It depends on who you ask, but I say we shall see!

Post navigation← Previous
The Train Is Leaving The Station
Posted on October 15, 2019


Back in June we looked at the Semi Conductors



We discussed how the Semi’s were poised to begin the next leg up in their bull market.

2-sox

Tonight we can see that the train is leaving the station.

3-sox

The question that I would ask myself if I did not have a position is:
“After a 17 year consolidation what’s more important? A perfect entry or just getting on board?”
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/10/15/the-train-is-leaving-the-station-2/
 
Well, VXF is above the 10 , 50 and 200 DMAs.... If you are a trend trader like I am , the data is looking good. ... However, a few other indicators I use has me still watching - which could turn out to be a deer in the headlights mistake for me.... It's easy for me to move in and out at Vanguard since I have unlimited moves and the trades are free..... It's much different for those using the S Fund.

The VIX is a trading indicator I watch and use with Sentiment looking for extremes to trade...

Good Trading!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25350173896&a=693601186


Jeff Clark's Market Minute
Another Warning Sign From the Stock Market’s Crystal Ball…
Published October 16, 2019 - 7:30 AM

Longtime readers know I often refer to Volatility Index (VIX) option prices as the “crystal ball” of the stock market. They do have unique predictive abilities – which I explained in early July, when we looked at VIX options.

VIX call options are, once again, far more expensive than the corresponding put options. That means traders are willing to pay much more to speculate that the VIX will be higher one month from now than lower.

And, a higher VIX usually means a lower stock market.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

Some VIXs tips...

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/?s=VIX


$VIX Crush
BY SVEN HENRICH ON OCTOBER 15, 2019

Oh look, the $VIX is getting crushed again. Given all that is going on globally one may be inclined to express surprise, but it really isn’t a surprise. See there’s this monthly program running through markets and it, more of than not, crushes the $VIX with regularity during its special time of the month. No, the $VIX doesn’t have a period, but it meets its fate during the period of OPEX, monthly options expiration week.

Most notably it’s the futures contract ($VX) that rolls over and the resulting contango sees the $VIX get crushed.

These $VIX dumps into oblivion occur during the futures roll-over onto the next month’s contract which either occurs during the week of OPEX or the week after:

https://northmantrader.com/2019/10/15/vix-crush-2/
 
Last edited:
The move up continues, and it looks pretty good so far.....

Day 5 since the move above the 10 DMA on my daily chart.... You can't fight the price even if it's on low volume..... The reason we continue to move higher doesn't matter to me or my trading system - It remains on a buy signal.

My VXX trade is still in play... my stop hasn't been hit yet!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p20386149338&a=693406838

For trading I disagree with this..... I BT it using a simple 10 DMA and I'm the winner.... I'm still a sub there....

"External Follows Internal. Most POWERFUL #trading concept on Earth. Period. Proprietary Sentinels dvlpd over 4+ decades.http://SevenSentinels.com"
More
11 AM


Who be tweeting and what......


Markets Higher On Brexit Hopes... A few I follow.....

https://sevensentinels.com/october-17-2019-intraday/


thomas
‏

@VolumeDynamics
12m12 minutes ago

More thomas Retweeted thomas
Plenty of time to whipsaw us between now and 10/31... 2 weeks of ABUSE...thomas added,
thomas

@VolumeDynamics
Say what does anyone think might happen, should this priced-in Brexit, China, and F'ed cut "in the bag" nirvana trade start to crumble? ��


thomas
‏

@VolumeDynamics
13m13 minutes ago
More
Say what does anyone think might happen, should this priced-in Brexit, China, and F'ed cut "in the bag" nirvana trade start to crumble? ��



thomas
‏

@VolumeDynamics
31m31 minutes ago
More
So the bar is set pretty high here for the bears... at present on the daily chart... we have the gap up holding, higher high on stronger volume... to get a bearish outcome today, lows have to break and hold, at a minimum.



thomas
‏

@VolumeDynamics
42m42 minutes ago
More
REALITY CHECK - $VIX is at 14 here, not 20...

INDICES NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS...


David Rosenberg
‏

@EconguyRosie
1h1 hour ago


It's always fun to watch Larry Kudlow hyperventilate on CNBC. He did fail to mention that even without the GM strike effect, manufacturing activity shrank 0.2% last month.
SentimenTrader
‏
Verified account

@sentimentrader
50m50 minutes ago
More
The most bearish active investment manager is twice as bearish as the most bullish one is bullish, per the latest NAAIM survey.

The last time that happened was 5 years ago.

4 replies28 retweets56 likes
Reply 4 Retweet 28 Like 56

SentimenTrader
‏
Verified account



@sentimentrader
4h4 hours ago
More
On the flip side, when you look at total return, it's not quite so�� https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1184538292735348736 …


Sven Henrich
‏
Verified account

@NorthmanTrader
28m28 minutes ago
MoreSven Henrich Retweeted Jesse Felder
Short interest falls to lowest in a yearSven Henrich added,

Jesse Felder

@jessefelder
'Bets against U.S. stocks haven’t been this low since last October -- just before the deepest sell-off in a decade.' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rt-stocks-on-the-cusp-of-a-potential-breakout …
3 replies21 retweets78 likes
Reply 3 Retweet 21 Like 78
 
Last edited:
robo said:
Jesse Felder

@jessefelder
'Bets against U.S. stocks haven’t been this low since last October -- just before the deepest sell-off in a decade.' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rt-stocks-on-the-cusp-of-a-potential-breakout …
3 replies21 retweets78 likes
Reply 3 Retweet 21 Like 78
Click to expand...

Interesting, considering what Tony Dwyer was saying yesterday...

Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said the nervousness is palpable.
Click to expand...

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-economy/32822-economic-outlook.html#post628296
 
tsptalk said:
Interesting, considering what Tony Dwyer was saying yesterday...



https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-economy/32822-economic-outlook.html#post628296
Click to expand...

If you are a trend trader like me.... you trade the trend. I hate this market, but my system went to buy. Trending above the 10 DMA long, below and trending down cash....

I trade VXF at Vanguard.... Long or cash just like those here using the S Fund....

Good Trading!

Back test it if you like using this chart below.... I use other indicators, but the trend overrules (price) everything else.

Day 5 of the buy signal Brother..... See the VXF data....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p80736597099&a=693406838

Is a whipsaw coming? Very possible, but for now the trend remains up on my daily chart....
 
Another indicator I track.... ( For traders only)


Gamma Trading Signals

https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1152


Gamma Trading Signals In The S&P 500
Oct. 17, 2019 2:48 PM ET|About: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)
As we head into an important monthly option expiration for the stock market this Friday, October 18th, we are pleased to announce the re-launch of our Seeking Alpha Marketplace service, now entitled: Gamma Trading Signals.

If you are like me, when you hear the word “gamma,” you might think of gamma radiation, Bruce Banner and the Incredible Hulk. This analogy is meaningful. Our price signals show that when there are spikes in gamma, extreme price moves can occur. When gamma spikes out of range , the options market can act like the Hulk, creating havoc and volatility on the underlying market.



Options Sentiment and Gamma Signals
Stock market "gamma" has earned increasing attention from the financial media. CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and Zerohedge all regularly talk about market gamma and its impact on market risk. While the mainstream financial media talks about gamma, there is never anything actionable about the information. Gamma signals are usually published by the mainstream media ipso facto – after the fact. Our service is one of the few services that publish gamma trading signals for a retail audience.

Options Sentiment Report
Our daily Options Sentiment Report highlights financial risk in markets that have significant volume and open interest in the options market. Since many option expirations have hundreds of millions of dollars at stake on a specific timestamp, our report can be best viewed a “smart money” indicator.

There are several trading signals from our daily report which are annotated in the chart below. The most common price signal – which applies to all of the markets we cover – is the potential for mean reversion and/or compression between market price and the level of our calculated Gamma Neutral.


The purple vertical lines on my chart below are Options Expiration dates. (Please note the VIX) The current Options Sentiment and Gamma Signals indicated the odds for IWM moving up this week were tradeable.... It looks like next week we might see some moves coming... My VXX stop still hasn't been tagged, but getting close.... ( I'm still long VXX) I sometimes uses small positions as a hedge for VXF.... No shorting allowed at Vanguard.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p86569217751&a=693406838

Good Trading!
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/...ng-signals-s-and-p-500?isDirectRoadblock=true
 
The Miners....

I have Tuesday as being day 22, which places the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Thursday which signals that Tuesday marked the daily cycle low.

Since the daily cycle count is not clear we will look at the weekly chart.

The weekly chart clearly shows us that the Miners peaked on week 18 then formed a weekly swing high on week 19. The Miners went on to print their lowest point this week, which is week 24. That places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low accompanied by a break above the declining weekly trend line would have us label week 24 as the ICL. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/10/17/miner-action-3/

Daily....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p67333288399&a=693407144

Weekly....

GDX remains in a cash position..... below its 10 WMA - 6 weeks since the NUGT sell signal....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06461331105&a=690411577

Good Trading!
 
For traders!

Where the Money Goes in a Market Crash
Published October 18, 2019 - 7:30 AM
The S&P 500 peaked in late July.

The S&P 500 peaked in late July.

Since then, it has been stuck in a wide trading range between about 2850 on the downside and 3020 on the upside. As we approach the upper end of that trading range, and as technical conditions start to move into overbought territory, the odds of a significant decline increase.

That decline could start any day.

In fact, several months ago, I marked October 21 as a probable start date for that decline…

The next decline phase is likely to be a “rotational” bear market. Money is going to come out of the market’s best-performing names – those momentum stocks with wildly expensive valuations – and rotate into the beaten-down “value” names that have done nothing all year.

In other words, the best-performing stocks of 2019 are going to get hit, and this year’s worst stocks are going to outperform everything else…

Even though the S&P 500 is trading near its all-time highest level ever, many stocks and many sectors have already been through their own bear markets. Many retail stocks, for example, are down 50% or more in 2019. They’re trading at decade-low valuations. Many oil and gas stocks are in the same boat.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/



My LT data chart - Please note - FCG, XES, OIH..... Looking to buy some FCG, but all could make a 20% or higher run soon..... Some are already on a buy signal... XES went 10 days above the 10 DMA ( a buy signal for me) and then 17 days below and a lower low.... Back above the 10 DMA again, but I'm going to try FCG.

Good Trading!

Look how FCG and XES moved up in 2007/2008 before the Bear Market really got going. Everything got sold off later.... However, look at the spike and will it be different this time.... Is the rotation getting closer?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1999-01-24&id=p82870320480&a=694004329

I don't know what will happen this time, I'm just pointing out what happened the last time - since the point here is a rotation in to value stocks about to happen? We shall see..... No matter what happens I trade the trend, and it overrules everything else.... (price no matter what the volume)

There is only one side to the market, and that’s the right side. Jesse L. Livermore
 
Last edited:
Some important Short-Term Trading news... Watching and waiting on the next tweet to trade!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...-deal-parliament-ahead-historic-saturday-vote

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...-tomorrows-critical-brexit-vote-will-play-out


thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
13m
Vote is up in the air, this is going to be CRAZY... protect your capital.

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics/status/1185181268930990081
Quote Tweet

thomas
@VolumeDynamics
· 55m
REPATRIATION... that's the trade now... $EUR and $GBP will be in big demand to satisfy cross-border settlements... at the root of everything is LIQUIDATION - Volume is about to RAMP.
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
30m
Currencies and Commodities ROCKING AND ROLLING here
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
55m
REPATRIATION... that's the trade now... $EUR and $GBP will be in big demand to satisfy cross-border settlements... at the root of everything is LIQUIDATION - Volume is about to RAMP.
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
57m
A fair trade for un-assing themselves from the "end of the E.U." process...
Quote Tweet

First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
· 1h
GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS BRITAIN WILL LOSE SOMETHING AFTER BREXIT, NAMELY EASY ACCESS TO THE INTERNAL MARKET

Follow the story live: Redbox

The VIX smashers.....


Yes, you are reading that correctly, the current level of uncertainty is worse than during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the aftermath of 9/11, the great financial crisis around Lehman's bankruptcy, and the Brexit referendum vote.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...ainty-unexpectedly-soars-above-lehman-sept-11

For some context what this means in terms of market risk, on a smoothed basis, this level of uncertainty filtering through to business uncertainty and thus equity risk, would imply a VIX that is well over 50 points higher than its current complacent level...
 
Last edited:
Day 6 of the buy signal and the trend remains up... Now what?

Daily Data charts..... I can see why many traders remain Bullish based on my daily charts..... However, the VIX looks like it might be ready for a move.... Note the OPTX data and the VIX..... ( OPTX = Vertical purple lines) For now the trend remains up, and one should not fight the price..... The Fed is in the game again.....

Is the next higher low for the VIX completing? Don't know.....but I will be watching..... Bottom Line - The VXF trend remains up! VXF has a ugly little black candle on the daily chart. VXF still has a ways to go for new all time highs, but I trade what I see and it continues to move up.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p68121680271&a=694509390

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p95518511337&a=694509369



David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
18h
I find it amusing that the stock market promoters love to point at "resilience" because the SPX hovers near 3k. The charts of the NYSE composite and the Russell 2000 index are far from bullish, maybe that's why nobody talks about them!

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
15h
Hmmm... they didn't exactly gut $VIX today did they... see what happens after the close.

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics



Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
·
18m
The Fed will need to print a lot more...
Quote Tweet

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
· 18m
GOLDMAN: “A sharp decline in cash balances, slow EPS growth, and political scrutiny of buybacks will likely lead to a decline in gross buybacks next year.”

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader



James DePorre
@RevShark
·
20h
The Strong Small-Cap Group Is Keeping Me Optimistic
The momentum in the broader market is not that strong and the rotational issue continues.

https://twitter.com/RevShark/
 
Last edited:
XES and FCG having trouble staying above the 10 DMA - NUGT back above the 10 DMA and VXF remains on a (hold long position).....

I hate this market, but I trade what I see happening, not what I think will happen....

VXF remains on a buy.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XES&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p93359845286&a=694729127

Another ugly black candle for VXF? We shall see how it closes, but still NO BEEF!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p26536973258&a=694509369

IAU and the miners on a buy signal again....

Long some NUGT for a trade only........

The miners..... I want to see GDX move back above the 50 DMA with some volume.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p57643958044&a=694576197
 
Last edited:
The next crash could come any day now- says Shiller:

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...see-bubbles-everywhere/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Stock Market Crash Near?
Nobel Laureate Sees 'Bubbles Everywhere'
Click to expand...
When Nobel Laureate and "Irrational Exuberance" author Robert Shiller says he sees bubbles in the financial markets — you'd better listen up. He literally wrote the book on stock market crashes and bubbles after all.

"I see a bubbles everywhere," Shiller, economics professor at Yale University and author of just-published "Narrative Economics" told investors gathered in Los Angeles Wednesday. "There's no place to go. You just have to ride it out. You invest even though you expect the price to decline." Shiller famously predicted the 2000 stock market crash and the 2007 crash of the housing market.
Click to expand...

A good article- scares me upright in my seat. He's got some good points to ponder. Investors Business Daily article.

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...see-bubbles-everywhere/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo







 
I be looking to take a VXX trade..... Waiting.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p84040762504&a=695440781

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p12408901063&a=686340209

The IWM/SPY divergence remains a concern..... I remain on a buy signal even though I hate this market..... Day 11 of the buy signal...... I trade VXF at Vanguard - I'm either long or cash....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78390701887&a=695486359

Have a nice weekend!
 
Last edited:
The SPY/IWM historical monthly tracking data ..... The good news is it's back above the 20 MA..... The bad news is the divergence continues..... The Fed be pumping money into the markets again, so it could change things. We shall see..... None of it matters to me since I trade the daily trend, and it remains up. Monday will be day 12 above the 10 DMA.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p42152331227&a=692181751

LOL.... When I look over this data I remember getting over 10% on CD's from the credit union...... Good old days in my opinion..... When saving meant something, and you made a decent living with one paycheck......
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top