Stocks - waiting on the ICL and a setup to go long VXF again...
Stocks printed 523 million Selling on Strength on Thursday. We typically Selling on Strength numbers nearing cycle peaks, not cycle bottoms. Seeing this large SOS number on what potentially is the DCL is a warning signal which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework that stocks are declining into an intermediate cycle low. Stocks still need to complete their intermediate cycle decline (which I will detail in the Weekend Report). Therefore our expectation is to see a left translated daily cycle formation which will allow stocks to complete their intermediate cycle decline.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2018/06/29/the-6-29-18-morning-report/
The Market's Setting Up for a Bullish July
Everybody in the world seemed to be buying put options yesterday.
Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration. Not “everybody in the world” bought puts. But there were enough folks willing to pay up for insurance that the CBOE Put/Call ratio (CPC) spiked up to near its second-highest level of the year.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
Gold - The Bullish setup and the odds for a MT trade continue to increase...
$GOLD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
GLD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
I always use Risk Management when trading...
Mind the Trap Door
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
July 2018
It’s worth emphasizing that the message here is not “sell everything.” Rather, investors should carefully evaluate their risk tolerance, their investment horizon, their sensitivity to market losses, and their tolerance for regret (both the regret of missed market gains as a result of being defensive, and the regret of suffering market losses as a result of being constructive). In my view, investors should seriously consider the prospect of a market decline on the order of -65% from the recent market highs, and their capacity to tolerate that sort of loss without abandoning their investment discipline. Investors with limited investment horizons should also consider the likelihood, suggested by current valuation extremes, that total market returns over the coming 10-12 years may be negative even if they maintain their discipline through a steep interim market loss.
I’ll emphasize again that the worst market outcomes in history have typically unfolded when extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions have been joined by deteriorating market internals and upward pressure on credit spreads and risk-premiums. Conversely, the strongest market outcomes in history have typically unfolded when a substantial retreat in market valuations has been joined by early improvement in those measures of market action. If our measures of market internals improve, we will defer the immediacy of our downside concerns. Here and now, my impression is that complacency could prove to be a costly instinct.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180627/
Did you know: For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less."
Long-term vs. short-term capital gains taxes
Long-term capital gains are those you earn on assets you’ve held for more than a year. Under the new 2018 tax law, such gains are taxed at three rates, depending on your overall income: zero, 15 percent and 20 percent. For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less. They’ll pay 15 percent on capital gains if their income is $77,221 to $479,000. For couples above that income level, the rate is 20 percent. There also is a de facto fourth bracket for certain high earners who must pay an additional 3.8 percent on investment income as part of the Affordable Care Act.
By contrast, short-term capital gains are from assets you buy and sell within one year. They are taxed as regular income, which is always higher than the long-term capital gains rate. The government gives you a break on long-term gains to encourage buy-and-hold investments (as opposed to speculating), which stabilize the economy.
https://www.bankrate.com/investing/long-term-capital-gains-tax/
