Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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LOL.... (The Perfect Trade Entry) It is luck when it happens in my opinion.....


The Perfect Trade Entry
Posted on December 3, 2019

The perfect trade entry for the new intermediate Miner cycle would have been when the Miners formed a weekly swing low during the 3rd week of November. But the Miners did not close above the 10 week MA nor above the declining weekly trend line so in real time we could not be certain that week 28 hosted the ICL.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

My trend trading charts....

Daily

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p26202691847&a=703319629

Weekly

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06461331105&a=704242674

Gold still hasn't given me a weekly buy signal, but the miners are looking ok. The question is will gold follow the miners? We shall see..... GLD is an important indicator to me, and it remains under its 10 WMA.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01464617987&a=704242805

I do "NOT" have this service. It's a free report..... I have my own trading system for trading the miners.....
FREE GOLD REPORT - DECEMBER 3, 2019
View this post on GoldPredict.com


If gold continues higher into Friday’s close, then the odds support a 6-month low at $1446.20 on November 12th.

If gold slips back below $1470 in the coming days, then this is likely an early December top, and prices are positioning for one final decline towards the 200-day MA.

As I said, the next few days are crucial. If the market believes Trump about China and the next rounds of tariffs go through on December 15th, then gold will likely continue higher.

If today was just a kneejerk reaction, and Trump walks back his statement, then gold could be topping and break lower one last time before bottoming.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/22415
 
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Mystery S&P Put Buyer Makes $31 Million Profit In 24 Hours, Covers Half Of Position

Yesterday we reported that a mystery trader, who was expecting a sharp drop in the market over the next 6 weeks, bought 16,000 January 2,980 S&P puts, spending $32 million to protect against a 4.5% drop in the index at 9:44am on Monday morning, about 15 minutes before the latest dismal Manufacturing ISM sent stocks tumbling.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/m...-million-profit-24-hours-covers-half-position


LOL...Nice trade, and it takes money to make money.....
 
LOL..... Real Nice Brother! Even if I had that kind of money I don't think I could place a bet like that one....
 
Never Forget These 10 Investment Rules

Rule #4: Follow The Trend.
80% of portfolio performance is determined by the underlying trend.

Astute investors peruse the 52-week high list for ideas. Novices tend to consider stocks that make 52-week highs the ones that need to be avoided or sold. Per a white paper by Justin Birru at The Ohio State University titled “Psychological Barriers, Expectational Errors and Underreaction to News,” he posits how investors are overly pessimistic for stocks near 52-week highs although stocks which hit 52-week highs tend to go higher.

Thomas J. George and Chuan-Yang Hwang penned “The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing,” for The Journal of Finance. The authors discovered purchasing stocks near 52-week highs coupled with a short position in stocks far from a 52-week high, generated abnormal future returns. Now, I don’t expect anyone to invest solely based on studies such as these. However, investors should understand how important an underlying trend is to the generation of returns.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/never-forget-these-10-investment-rules

Once we get the next cycle low I will be looking over some of the energy indexes for a trade. On my chart below......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p17800803885&a=702047273

Waiting on the next VXF buy signal. VXF closed back above the 20 DMA, but we are still deep into this very stretched daily cycle..... I wait!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p21626760823&a=702774295
 
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Waiting......and it's STBD how this year will play out..... A few of the folks I follow on twitter.....

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
41m
$SPX fell more than -1.5% in the first 2 days of December.

The last 2 times this happened:

December 2018
December 2008

Well, I guess we're dead ��

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader



SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
18m
9:15 AM, December 4, 2019

Phase One Trade Agreement Hopes Re-emerge
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author



Douglas Kass
@DougKass
·
2h
This morning on
@realmoney

Here They Come Again and There Go Our Markets
* The trade, market and political theatre is growing ever more absurd.
* President Trump (and his Administration) is "Making Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility Great Again." https://realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-diary?published[value][date]=2019-09-27&author=All#president-trump--20190927
https://twitter.com/dougkass?lang=en



James DePorre
@RevShark
·
1h
I have a very large cash position. It is going to be very challenging to put it to work but the best part of trading is looking for new merchandise.
@realmoney

@jimcramer

@dougkass

https://twitter.com/RevShark



Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
·
Dec 1
So the question now is whether the stock market is rising because of "Not QE", or because it is raining more than normal lately in NYC?

OR.... Does QE cause NYC rain? Does rain cause QE?
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
 
A buy signal for traders?

The VIX is on this chart.... VXF now testing and back above the 10 DMA, and the VIX giving a buy signal..... I will wait...... You can see that there were times when that data could only be used for a VST trade. Read Jeff's comments about the VIX and the BBs......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p21626760823&a=702774295

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p17800803885&a=704352516



Jeff Clark's Market Minute
Why Most Folks Lose Money in the Stock Market
By Jeff Clark
December 4, 2019

For the past couple of weeks I’ve been obsessed with the Volatility Index (VIX).

“It’s too low,” I said. “The Bollinger Bands are too tight. Periods of low volatility are always followed by periods of high volatility.”

Since a rising VIX usually goes along with a falling stock market, I’ve been cautious on stocks. And, up until Friday, I’ve been wrong.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
 
The Meaning of Valuation
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

December 2019

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
– Professor Irving Fisher, October 15, 1929

As it happened, the Dow would subsequently lose over 89% of its value, plunging to a low of 41.22 on July 8, 1932.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc191203/
 
We are in the box based on my Risk Level data...... See my chart below and look at the (April 2019 data and now) I get the data from Sentiment Trader so I cant post it...... I use different data points then he does, and I don't use his BT engine. I track patterns based on historical data points and extremes.....

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

What does that mean - It means we have above average odds that VXF will BT its 200 DMA in December. I said high odds. That doesn't mean it will, but the odds are currently very high that it will. With enough buying power every extreme can become more extreme. However, that keeps me on the sidelines for now, and only VST trading. That means flat VXF at Vanguard.... That's very close to the S Fund at TSP.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p17800803885&a=702047273


Good trading.....
 
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The cycles tell us we just started a new daily cycle, but I remain flat...... The weekly data remains on a hold long positions too......

Posted on December 7, 2019

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Monday to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, following the day 39 peak. That was day 42, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Wednesday. Then stocks closed back above the 10 day MA to confirm day 42 as the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/14562/


The daily and weekly both support holding long positions..... I remain flat...... Risk/Reward......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p58621092403&a=702047273

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44295524119&a=704685794
 
Is another buying op for gold and the miners coming our way.... Adam thinks so, and Jack's data supports it too...... Not sure what data on the COT report is the most important for gold? Adam explains it well, and that's why I track it.... I trade the miners only not gold....

COT data....
https://snalaska.us/cot/current/charts/GC.png

Jacks data..... 253k https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/images2/jc120719-7.png

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-exclusive-update-86




Adam's reasons why...

Gold Correction Not Over
Dec. 6, 2019 11:48 PM ET

Summary
Gold’s correction isn’t over yet. The only reason its downtrend has proven modest so far is gold-futures speculators have yet to do any major selling. That is still coming.

Their longs have lingered at very-high levels since gold’s latest interim high, while their shorts ground along near bull-market lows. These extremes aren’t sustainable and must be normalized.

That means the lion’s share of the necessary gold-futures selling to drive this correction hasn’t hit yet. Specs still have massive room to sell but little room to buy.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...rue&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

My trend trading data for gold.....

Daily

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p74189199397&a=704299607


Weekly

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=10&dy=0&id=p41762863828&a=704242805

The Miners....

Daily - Another close below the 10 DMA and 50 DMA

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65384576535&a=699718562

Weekly

The weekly trend remains down based on my system.... ( below the 10 week MA)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06461331105&a=704242674
 
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CrabClaw said:
nice chart. there is something to be said for watching what the fed does and delayed market response.
Click to expand...

I like to track historical patterns after trading in the 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets. It could be different this time, but it will probably be similar in many ways....

33 days into the MT higher risk trading zone. The last one didn't even make it to 30, but ( Not QE is a game changer when it comes to making new extremes)


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p58621092403&a=705911255

Bottom Line: The trend remains up on my daily and weekly trend trading system, but the Risk/Reward is to high for me.....

Have a good one!
 
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