Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Things you don't want to see with a market at new highs. The column of stocks at new highs is shorter than the one at new lows.

Helene Meisler
@hmeisler
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1418889012450889739?mc_cid=a9c377896b&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0


IWM daily: Remains under its 100 dma while the SPY makes new ATH's.

 

[robo]

The Miners Were Close — But No Cigar

Since printing the day 54 low, the Miners had been coiling below the 10 day MA until Wednesday.

The Miners closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. They delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing above the upper daily cycle band to signal that day 54 was the DCL. Closing above the upper daily cycle band signals a new daily uptrend. The Miners are close, but no cigar. The Miners will need to break above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA in order for a trending move to develop.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/07/31/the-miners-were-close-but-no-cigar/

 

[robo]

GDX daily: GDX remains below its 50, 100 and 200 dma. Waiting to see if the miners can breakout and start the next big run..... We should be getting close...... I'm flat again, but I just trade the miners. I'm NOT an investor in this sector. It does look like they may have bottomed. We shall see.

From the comments above - "The Miners will need to break above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA in order for a trending move to develop."

 

[robo]

HUI weekly: A higher low, but still needs some work. We shall see if buyers come in. It's Easy Money Monday and the first day of the month. One would think it will be an up day for stocks. We shall see how it plays out.

GLD daily: I track GLD

Gold firms above $1,800, but Citi sees path lower through 2021: Alpha Tactics

Our base case outlook remains that the yellow metal will hover near the higher-end of a $1,675-1,825/oz range through mid-3Q before trending lower into and after the September FOMC, to average ~$1,750/oz for the quarter," Citi commodities analysts write in a note.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/37227...k-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

 

[robo]

IWM monthly: Sideways for 5 months.

VTI monthly: What a nice and easy run to trade if you use the monthly data. (VTI) = Is a Vanguard fund of the total stock market. A good one to use for MT trading with a Roth IRA in my opinion. I like the trading account so I can buy other indexes too. You can "NOT" short at Vanguard or use leveraged indexes. You can hedge using VXX, but that can get you into trouble if you are not careful. Not recommended for most!

 

[robo]

IWM daily: Still unable to move above the 50 and 100 dma...... The action looks weak and tired to me for the IWM index..... Not what you want to see during the first trading day of a new month. But as we all know that doesn't mean the move for IWM is over. Tom mentioned August was weak during the first several days of the month, but I couldn't find the chart he posted.

Bottom Line: I current have no positions in small caps and they look weak!

Second data chart:
https://twitter.com/not_jim_cramer?lang=en

 

[robo]

SPY daily: I never like to see a black candle on a day that should be up. First day of the month and Easy Money Monday! We shall see how we close..... It could change to white or red during the last hour of trading. We shall see....

 

[tsptalk]

Tom mentioned August was weak during the first several days of the month, but I couldn't find the chart he posted.

This goes back 30 years...

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

 

[robo]

SPX - max frustration continues
The break up that refuses materializing. Note the inverted hammer candle so far today.

In the meantime the negative RSI divergence we have been pointing out continues developing.

The stressed bull has become even more stressed since yields decided puking today.

We are 26 handles below the all time high close and VIX is at 19.65.

Go figure...
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

The strongest equity market has some of the weakest breadth on record
MS Mike Wilson: "The mid-cycle transition de-rating is advanced but unfinished. Falling earnings revision breadth this fall will likely complete that process."
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

SPY daily: Not the close the Bulls wanted, but the 10 dma seemed to hold. Maybe a Bear Trap? LOL..... we shall see!

SPX daily cycle data: Hmmmmm.....


Stocks broke out above the day 17 high on day 24. They had been consolidating above the day 17 high -- until Monday.

Stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation on Monday to close below the day 17 high and the 10 day MA. At 30 days, any bearish follow through will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should then go on to break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily. downtrend.


https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/08/02/stocks-deliver-bearish-break/

My SPY daily: Held the 10 dma, but looks weak! Another tag of the 50 dma coming or will we bounce tomorrow?

 

[robo]

SPY 2 hour chart:

 

[robo]

IWM 2 hour: Not showing much leadership is it.

 

[robo]

LOL..... I say good luck to all those making guesses on what will happen next....... During times like this stay nimble and trade small!

US 10 year - negative trend channel perfection
Despite everybody talking higher US 10 year yields, all we are seeing is lower yields.

The trend channel since late May stays intact.

Note we are now once again "well" below the 200 day moving average printing 1.18 as of writing, lowest levels since the Feb "yields confusion".

While yields have drifted lower over past sessions, the Russell vs NASDAQ ratio has actually climbed small higher.

Is this setting up for another disappointment for the reflation trade believers?
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

My VIX daily chart below: Is that a series of higher lows? Watching this trend as someone is buying protection!


SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

45m
8 PM

Bearish Engulfing Candles/Rising VIX
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

SPY daily: A nice bounce after tagging the 20 dma, and is now moving back above the 10 dma. (JUST BTD) Looks good so far......waiting to see how we close. Tracking a couple of big time guessers that are remaining short...... I don't know why you would want to short the SPY using 3X indexes with the current trend up? If you are going to short (I do sometimes) - Stay nimble and keep it small.... You can make some nice beer money if you are ST trading using the 2 hour chart.

I use to say - Robo be Nimble, Robo be quick, make that trade, and get out quick! I'm sure you have heard that one before.....

Jack be nimble

Jack be quick

Jack jump over

The candlestick

 

[robo]

SPY weekly chart below: So how long have you been short the SPY? Say WHAT!

 

[robo]

I say keep it small and stay nimble if you are long in this market.
The sentiment chart below is from Tom's daily reports.


August rain: the best of the summer gone; the summer's last messenger of misery
(1) August can be an uncomfortable month for price action, generally

(2) The market is vulnerable having passed the peak of earnings season

(3) It was a month-end dynamic that helped prop up indices

(4) Big Tech results were good, but the stocks ‘didn’t work’

(5) SPX is up a lot YTD and 'we are due' for a proper / ‘typical’ pullback

(6) Fears of a COVID setback are 'real' / not going away

(7) ‘Here comes the August air pocket’
https://themarketear.com/

 

[retread]

I use to say - Robo be Nimble, Robo be quick, make that trade, and get out quick!

But we don't have ANY option to be nimble or quick in TSP! We have both hands tied behind our backs and he system is rigged against us with only 2 IFT's per month. And the noon deadline is another handicap. With only 2 IFT's per month I say the system makes us be more risky because if you used an IFT to get in you don't want to get out right away (say it starts to fall once you got in) because you don't want to use that second IFT to get out knowing that you won't be able to get back in again until the end of the month. This scenario really hurts if you choose to get in early in the month.

 

[rangerray]

But we don't have ANY option to be nimble or quick in TSP! We have both hands tied behind our backs and he system is rigged against us with only 2 IFT's per month. And the noon deadline is another handicap. With only 2 IFT's per month I say the system makes us be more risky because if you used an IFT to get in you don't want to get out right away (say it starts to fall once you got in) because you don't want to use that second IFT to get out knowing that you won't be able to get back in again until the end of the month. This scenario really hurts if you choose to get in early in the month.

Which is why most of the time when it *looked* like I knew what I was doing, it was just dumb luck. At times I'm able to read a trend, but I'm quite incapable of guessing what the market situation will be one, two or more weeks in advance.

However, I don't think past performance is a very reliable indicator of anything right now. There seems to be a lot more people playing the stock market than there used to be, so that is something to consider. Regardless of the COVID situation, I don't think Americans are inclined to stop in their tracks like last year. Business is going to pick up. People are going to go back to work eventually no matter the efforts of the government to work against that with give-aways. There is still a lot of recovering to do and it will happen. It has to.