Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Goldman: flat equity markets in 2H

Goldman's equity strategist David Kostin is not prepared to increase his year end target for S&P500 (4300) and says stocks will trade flat from here. He does not see room for multiple expansion. "From a valuation perspective, equities during the next six months are more likely to experience multiple contraction than expansion. The index currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 22.3x (94th percentile) and our year-end forecast implies a stable P/E ratio. Additional absolute multiple expansion is possible, but unlikely. However, relative to nominal and real ten-year Treasury yields, the S&P 500 currently trades at just the 40th and 59th percentiles, respectively. Based on our earnings and interest rate forecasts, the implied year-end relative valuations will narrow to the 43rd and 58th percentiles, respectively"
https://themarketear.com/
 
Fed always wins
All gaps must be closed. Obviously this is "playing" with charts, but QQQ finally caught up with Fed's BS.

What's next, equities to overshoot during the best 2 week period of the year, get every bear to join the melt up scenario, and then....

https://themarketear.com/
 

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QQQ monthly: A tad stretched above the 50 mma..... No problem!
 

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The music keeps on playing.

Small specs not so small
From hated to loved index longs among the small specs, but it all adds up.

We keep dancing, but watching the exit closely...?
https://themarketear.com/
 

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robo said:
Goldman: flat equity markets in 2H

Goldman's equity strategist David Kostin is not prepared to increase his year end target for S&P500 (4300) and says stocks will trade flat from here./
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Interesting. Did you see Oscar's new target for the S&P for this year? 5400... another 25% from here. We'll see who's right.
 
tsptalk said:
Interesting. Did you see Oscar's new target for the S&P for this year? 5400... another 25% from here. We'll see who's right.
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I didn’t, but he is an above average trader and his data is worth looking over. I learned years ago to never pick targets. I went to trend trading because it has been working so well since the March low last year, and continues. Not many whipsaws using the ma’s I track, and that I’m currently using for trend trading. If Goldman’s call is correct, trend trading the rest of the year will not work well. I will switch back to the two hour charts if Goldman is correct. Either way, I think the rest of the year could be a wild ride for investors.

These days I trade based on this - I trade what is happening not what I think will happen.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up in one of the most historical moves of all time. It is amazing run since the 2020 March low and I have NO IDEA when this run will end. However, 16 months into this yearly cycle makes me think a pullback/correction will happen before the next big move up.
 
Thinking about buying a home? In some countries it's more extreme the the US.

SYDNEY, June 23 (Reuters) - Sydney houses with crumbling walls, shredded ceilings, and bathrooms and kitchens stripped of fixtures are getting snapped up for millions as buyers try to grab a slice of Australia's soaring property market.

Last week, a derelict brick cottage in the city's northwest sold for A$1.6 million ($1.20 million), a price the real estate agent handling the deal said was "much more than we were expecting".

Photos on the property agent's website showed torn carpets, tattered roll-up blinds and a grime-caked kitchen.
https://www.reuters.com/business/un...g-millions-australia-housing-boom-2021-06-23/


The U.S. housing bubble is even more extreme than the one in 2005-2006 before prices dropped an average of 34% nationwide:

In
 

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People are saying this housing market is not in a bubble and that it will go for much longer. Those same words were said just recently when bitcoin was at $65k and lumber was out of stock at Home Depot. Remember oil prices in 2008? There were experts saying we'd run out of oil by 2020.

The cure to high prices is sometimes higher prices.
 
Bullitt said:
People are saying this housing market is not in a bubble and that it will go for much longer. Those same words were said just recently when bitcoin was at $65k and lumber was out of stock at Home Depot. Remember oil prices in 2008? There were experts saying we'd run out of oil by 2020.

The cure to high prices is sometimes higher prices.
Click to expand...

Things always find a way to revert back to the mean....

The critical thing to remember is that “mean reversions” are a constant throughout history.
Therefore, the greater the deviation in one direction, the greater the reversion will be.
Besides getting extremely extended, the market is also excessively overvalued.

The market is currently trading more than twice what the economy can generate in revenue growth for companies.
Lastly, investors are convinced there is “no risk” in the market because the Fed provided an “insurance policy” against loss.
Investor exuberance is evident from the massive increase of household equity ownership as a percentage of their disposable personal income.
The current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend rivals every previous bubble in history.
Yes, this time could be different.

But, unfortunately, it just usually isn’t.

--Lance Roberts, "Technically Speaking: Warnings From Behind The Curtain",

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-warnings-from-behind-the-curtain/
 

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VTI daily: A early morning dip that was quickly bought..... (JUST BTD remains in play)
 

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VTI daily: ( Just BTD) The trend remains up! We shall see how the rest of the week plays out......

From the cycle dude.....

The Overall Picture Remains bullish

Stocks backfilled Friday’s gap on Tuesday, then formed a bullish reversal.
 

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When will the BTD ever end? LOL..... only the Shadow knows for sure!

Bottom Line: The Trend remains up on negative/ weak Breadth. However, I don't try and pick Tops or Bottoms. I will let the MA's and the market do that.
thomas
@VolumeDynamics

25m
One of these pullbacks, one day... will be the start of a new Bear Market, BTFD training continues...
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
33m
Wednesday 11:30

SS LOLR STS
Down Down Down
0/7 0/7 3/4

Breadth -500/-1500

NYSE McO: -29
>>NASDAQ McO: -44<<
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 

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LOL.... OK! (BTD)

Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
The $5.4 Trillion bet on the S&P 500: Acc to S&P Dow Jones Indices, a record $5.4tn is in ETFs that passively track the S&P 500. At the end of 2008 during the financial crisis, there was just $915bn worth of assets indexed to the S&P 50
 

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VTI monthly: Includes the 2008 low..... A nice run since the 2020 low...... NEVER fight the FED and the CB's if you are a LT investor. With that said, there has been plenty of nice pullbacks and corrections since the 2008 low for traders. Not sure how many made money. Some did I'm sure, but others - LOL....Sell low, chase and Buy high.. I have did that myself, a few times in the last 40 years. Live and learn.....We hope!

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. LOL... Sounds like me trading the Gold Miners!

These words are usually credited to the acclaimed genius Albert Einstein.
 

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