Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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SPX daily: The buyers got the 50 dma, and the 20 dma back this morning. The 10 dma be up next...... Waiting to see how we close. Looks like a daily 1/2 cycle low....
 

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SPX daily: Cycle low! It is what it is and we shall see how it plays out the rest of the week......

Stocks Renew Uptrend

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

Stocks printed its lowest point on Friday, day 26, which is a bit early for a DCL. Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Monday’s swing low formed above the lower daily to indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 26 as the DCL.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/06/21/stocks-renew-uptrend/
 

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SPX daily: The 10 dma be up next! Another Easy Money Monday is done. Waiting to see what Tuesday has to say.....
 

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What is still working: Just BTFD until it no longer works....


thomas
@VolumeDynamics

7h
As long as everyone "accepts" that excess valuation, created by sheer demand for assets outweigh any fundamentals metrics traditionally used to value assets... we'll be fine. As soon as that's not acceptable, it will be "everybody out of da pool"
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
 
SPX daily: So far about how this has played out...... (See charts below) We shall see if the Bulls can close the SPX above the 10 dma today. It looks good so far....

SPX - imagine a frustrating bounce from here?
Spoos trading down to some sort of trend line that has been in place since October lows.

We are below the 50 day moving average, but Spoos has managed doing the "knee jerk" move several times during this bull run, dipping below it, get people bearish and then reversing higher.

Maybe this time is different, but the biggest pain would be a quick snap back move higher from here.

VIX has gone from 15.5 ish to 21 in six sessions. On recent VIX lows, in our post, Blue Horseshoe loves VIX - "VIX" guy is back we suggested;

"We have argued that this Friday would be the day to look at long VIX or other long vol trades..."

Chasing VIX here is a very late trade, unless you believe we are crashing soon...
 

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""""We are now in the worst 2-week period of the year"""" - Really! We shall see how it plays out......

We are now in the worst 2-week period of the year
But very soon the worst becomes the best.....The first two weeks of July are the BEST two week period of the year.
https://themarketear.com/
 

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IWM daily: IWM still hasn't recovered back above the 20 dma. Maybe today..... Hmmmm.... the worst two weeks of the year you say..... The current pattern indicates we should move higher after getting close to tagging the lower BB.... But maybe this two week period will be different. LOL... MAYBE!
 

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Got BTC? I don't trade it.

Thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
19m
Who was that guy that said 29K would be tested? Oh that's right it was Me... ��
Quote Tweet
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
· 37m
ALERT $BTC ALERT TESTING THE LOWS at 29Ks

thomas
@VolumeDynamics
·
20s
$BTC - where's all those table-pounders I saw all the way down from 40K this week?

Probably barfing their guts out.

They started out with BUY BUY BUY

Yesterday it was HOLD HOLD HOLD

Today it is PUKE PUKE PUKE
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
 
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Yeah, could make trading tricky. There should also be some pension rebalancing between stocks and bonds, but it won't be as dramatic as June of last year.
 
Tom pointed this out in his daily comments: The Oldest Technical Trading System Just Triggered a Sell Signal
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
1h
The Oldest Technical Trading System Just Triggered a Sell Signal
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
 

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SPX daily: New all time highs coming? We shall see, but the bulls got back the 10 dma, and the cycle guys will like that. Will we drop back down and test the 50 dma again like we did in May. I will ask my magic 8 ball and report back later.
 

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Magic 8 Ball: The answer was.............LOL..... Shake it and then ask your question....... For me the answer was it looks like a retest soon...... We shall see!
https://magic-8ball.com/

For the record: I'm currently flat, and only day-trading......
 

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joblin, ( for some reason I could NOT send you a private message)

In my opinion there is high odds of tagging the 50 DMA again in the next few weeks. The odds and data I'm looking at tells me to be careful here as the SPX tries to make another new high. It could do that today! "IF" I were long and I'm not I would only have about a 10% position in stocks right now. Testing the upper BB and compressing again..... There are just too many warning indicators for me to want to be long. I like to trade extremes and buy when we are tagging the 50 dma or lower, not after moving back up to the upper BB. Keep in mind I only trade and I'm not an investor.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up "WITHOUT ME"..... The reason is Risk Management....... We have gone no where since the April high, and this market looks very tired to me. Not a market I care to be long in. However, that is just an opinion and this market will do whatever the money/buyers send it. Up or down... I'm getting ready to buy some SDS, and maybe before the close.

Take Care!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p87382757109&a=970049115
 

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