Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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SPX daily: A new all time high! The buy and hold folks love this market.......
 

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$CPCE daily: A tag of .35.... This indicator only gives a warning signal.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!
 

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IWM daily: For buy and hold basically a sideways move since Feb, but tagging the upper and lower BB during the move. Good for trading, but not easy to trade. We should get another go at the all time high soon.
 

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IWM monthly: Easier to see the sideways move on the monthly chart. This is month 15 for the yearly cycle.
 

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mmk119 said:
I went 100%G on the 9th. so, it should all explode to the upside now! LOL
Click to expand...

It might keep moving higher, but this is about Risk Management. I still don't have a sell signal, but I sure don't want to be a 100% in stocks. The SPX/SPY has been moving sideways since April even though it just made a new all time high.

Another new high this morning. Cash is a position too..... We are getting deeper into this yearly cycle.....

Bottom Line: The short term trend remains up. Trending above the 20 dma (red line and daily closing price) is a hold long positions for MT trading with my system, and move below the 10 ma is a reduce shares signal. Many investors use the 20 dma. I'm currently using the 5 , 10 and 20 dma, but buy and hold/BTFD has done well too for over a year now.

Lots of systems out there and they charge lots of money for there signals. Stay away from systems and paid service that use 3X like this guy does. They are account killers, and they get whipsawed often. Tom and others here are much better for TSP and trading at Vanguard.

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 

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SPX daily: Not even close to a sell signal. The ST trend remains up!

I just trade the trend and funny mentals don't matter to my trading system.

David Rosenberg: Stock prices haven't been this disconnected from the fundamentals since the dotcom bubble
Until prices adjust, lower your expectations for future returns
The bigger picture brings us back to our belief that the unrelenting surge in stocks following the COVID-19 crash has merely been an extension of the prior bull market and that the exceptionally strong gains we have seen are just robbing from future returns.

From our standpoint, we did not experience the prolonged shakeout that is typically required to reset the equity market. As such, until prices adjust (either through a correction or by simply treading water) to better align with fundamentals, we believe forward return expectations (for equities as a whole) should be adjusted downward accordingly.
https://financialpost.com/investing...=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1623404766
 

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Top corporate insiders keep smashing their previous all-time records of the total U.S. dollar amount of insider selling relative to insider buying which were also set in 2021.


According to the reliable Asif Suria of Insider Weekends, edition 571, the total U.S. dollar value of insider sales last week was 2.26 billion dollars versus a mere 46.04 million in total insider buying which is a ratio of more than 49.08 to 1. This kind of number would have been unimaginable as recently as last year--or any other past year in U.S. history.

Kaplan

True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian

Jun 9
If I had to choose between trading during the first hour the market opens or all the rest of the hours until the close, I would take the first hour. Most of the trading action opportunities is then, e.g. I placed some shorting orders on my ladder for #QQQ this morning.
https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 
Enjoy Inflation While It Lasts
By Rick Ackerman June 6, 2021, 5:00 pm EDT

Stimulus ‘a Drop in the Bucket’

So why do I continue to insist nonetheless that we are headed into a catastrophic deflation? The short answer is that even tens of trillions of stimulus dollars is just a drop in the bucket compared to a deflationary juggernaut poised to suck inflation into a black hole. When the bubble finally pops, here’s a list of things that will deflate like a tire with a hole in it before the central bank has a chance to even attempt a resuscitation:

* A hyperleveraged derivatives market valued notionally at $2 quadrillion
* The public-pension systems of two-dozen states
* Residential and commercial real estate currently valued at around $55 trillion
* Money market instruments worth $3.8 trillion that lubricate the financial system short-term

Can you see the problem? Not that anyone doubts the Fed’s determination to keep the system liquid at all costs. It’s just that the central bank’s statutory and logistical ability to do so will be outmatched by the precipitous shrinkage that some black swan is destined to cause.
https://www.rickackerman.com/2021/06/enjoy-inflation-while-it-lasts/
 
VIX index closing at post corona lows, but even more importantly, the VIX 2/8 month futs spread closing at post corona lows as well. This is basically telling you there is "no" fear...

Let's see if today was the day to get into VIX longs...as every aspect of protection was puked.

Our latest VIX logic from earlier today not to be missed
 

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Dollar - time to squeeze just when people reloaded shorts?
The DXY has mostly been boring over past weeks, but has managed bouncing off the range lows and refuses breaking down, as so many believe in.

It has pushed above the first negative trend and is pushing another shorter term negative trend line right now.

Note the big positive RSI divergence since May.

Second chart shows the latest net specs positioning, adding to shorts...
 

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OK . I've been silent and lurking for years. Long time member from the beginning of this site. So what happened to Birchtree??? Loved his insight and bullish outlook. Anyone know
 
LOL.... Yes Sir! Birchtree was The Biggest and Badest Bull on the farm/forum in this case. I use to have fun mixing it up with him. Tom might know....
 
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I don't think Tom knows. Birch tree just disappeared suddenly. I hope he didn't pass. He was very positive! He was always collecting "wallflowers" so I'm sure he was a multi-millionaire! I would like to think he eventually took time to gather his "wallflowers" and had a great time blowing them into the wind! :smile:
 
Coolhand seemed to have some contact with Birthtree after he left, but it's been a few years since I heard anything. I know was he was retired and enjoying life.

Last I heard he was building a house in the woods or something. Off the grid, perhaps? :)
 
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