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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
UUP daily: Looks like we will test the 24.17 marker this morning..... Lots of bets have been placed that the dollar will continue lower....
The trend does remains down for UUP! It recently tried to move back above the 10 dma, but failed. The cycle dude pointed that out this weekend in his free report.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80542466122&a=951068170
Dollar Endgame
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/05/08/dollar-endgame/
The trend does remains down for UUP! It recently tried to move back above the 10 dma, but failed. The cycle dude pointed that out this weekend in his free report.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80542466122&a=951068170
Dollar Endgame
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/05/08/dollar-endgame/
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robo
Well-known member
IWM daily: A move below the 5, 10, 20 and 50 dma today. I bet some trading systems (Guru's) are sending out sell signals tonight. Note the compression and how they have all been merging lately..... Topping? We shall see if we get a tag of the lower BB and the 100 dma.... In the past buying a tag of the lower IWM BB has been a nice ST winner if you are trading.
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robo
Well-known member
Hmmm......
Commercials on April 27, 2021 moved very strongly toward the short side for nearly all non-precious commodities and currencies:
Kaplan
Current Commitments of Traders Charts
Commercials on April 27, 2021 moved very strongly toward the short side for nearly all non-precious commodities and currencies:
Kaplan
Current Commitments of Traders Charts
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robo
Well-known member
Daily sell: I will respect my sell signal even if I get whipsawed. I added to my VXX position this morning and bought some SDS. Trading VXX is not recommended for most to be trading.
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
2h
The Nasdaq suffered a 2-sigma loss today.
The same day that 44% of S&P 500 stocks hit a 52-week high...the most since 1943.
If you think you understand this market, think again.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
2h
The Nasdaq suffered a 2-sigma loss today.
The same day that 44% of S&P 500 stocks hit a 52-week high...the most since 1943.
If you think you understand this market, think again.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
robo
Well-known member
VXX 2 hour chart: The pattern indicates high odds for a move back to the upper BB. We shall see if we get more selling. Remember, the trade was to buy stock indexes on Thursday's close and sell Monday's close. Been working for sometime now! I'm mainly trading SSO and SDS in the current market.
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robo
Well-known member
VTI or the total stock market: On a sell signal after moving below the 5, 10, and 20 dma yesterday. I trade VTI in one of my Vanguard accounts. I like trading the total stock market, as it gives you a better picture. We should see a lower BB tag this morning and a possible tag of the 50 dma. As you can see on my trend trading chart, and the patterns on the chart, that those tags have been nice buy signals in the past... We shall see how this move down plays out.
Moved below the lower BB, but buyers coming in..... The BTFD players have continued to make nice money.....
VTI:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VTI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67199320694&a=951969565
Moved below the lower BB, but buyers coming in..... The BTFD players have continued to make nice money.....
VTI:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VTI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67199320694&a=951969565
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robo
Well-known member
TLT daily: A lower BB tag and a "POSSIBLE" higher low..... We shall see, but the trend remains down again. It remains under its 5,10,20 and 50 dma's. Seeing some buyers come in...... I don't try and pick bottoms or tops - I just trade the trend.....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44632257294&a=919472361
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44632257294&a=919472361
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robo
Well-known member
USD/UUP daily update: So far the Feb low markers have held.....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p08353259237&a=951067075
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p08353259237&a=951067075
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robo
Well-known member
VXX daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32791933934&a=950453446
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
Tuesday 3:00:
SS LOLR STS
Down Down Down
0/7 0/7 6/1
NYSE McO: -34
NAZ McO: -43
BREADTH: -1600/-400
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32791933934&a=950453446
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
Tuesday 3:00:
SS LOLR STS
Down Down Down
0/7 0/7 6/1
NYSE McO: -34
NAZ McO: -43
BREADTH: -1600/-400
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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robo
Well-known member
SPX daily cycle data: Waiting on the next buy signal.....
Stocks broke below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday.
Stocks are even deeper in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks continue to be in a daily uptrend. Therefore if stocks form their swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/05/11/trend-line-break-3/
Stocks broke below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday.
Stocks are even deeper in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks continue to be in a daily uptrend. Therefore if stocks form their swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/05/11/trend-line-break-3/
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robo
Well-known member
Bullitt,
Kaplan and his TLT trade...... I guess he will make some money someday. His average share cost is now around $148.00ish... LOL - I don't like fading the trend like he does..... I wait for confirmed signals to buy or sell..... TLT is in a downtrend again.... We shall see how low she goes this time.... Odds increasing for a bounce soon!
Kaplan and his TLT trade...... I guess he will make some money someday. His average share cost is now around $148.00ish... LOL - I don't like fading the trend like he does..... I wait for confirmed signals to buy or sell..... TLT is in a downtrend again.... We shall see how low she goes this time.... Odds increasing for a bounce soon!
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Bullitt
Well-known member
Thanks for the update. His short ideas in early 2021 were great (ZM, SMH, TSLA) but his cost basis does not appear to be very good there either unless he's averaged up since then.
Right now bonds are massively oversold and for a contrarian trade, I'd have to say there's nothing better out there since everyone "knows" hyperinflation is coming. Either way, the past two days have put things on hold a bit and the bullish case is now a double bottom. These days I use SCHR as my bond trade.
Right now bonds are massively oversold and for a contrarian trade, I'd have to say there's nothing better out there since everyone "knows" hyperinflation is coming. Either way, the past two days have put things on hold a bit and the bullish case is now a double bottom. These days I use SCHR as my bond trade.
robo
Well-known member
I bought some TLT today for a trade only. I took a 10% position of TLT in one of my Vanguard accounts. I also sold my VXX way to early again.... I will take a look at SCHR and add it to my tracking data.
Take Care!
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robo
Well-known member
Death & Taxes: May 17th "Tax Day" dynamics
Goldman estimate that the realized capital gains from 2020 is the largest on record at $1.64 Trillion in US equities (excluding crypto). Roughly 15 million new online brokerage accounts were opened online last year. These are new investors and may not have estimated quarterly payments during a banner year for retail traders. There has been a rush google how to pay taxes and equal rush to sell what you own to pay 2020 gains? Retail YOLO is rolling over and raising cash from potentially “march 2020” gains.
As of 4/30/21, 110M taxes were filed for Tax year 2020. In 2019, there were 165M taxes filed. If I take current tax filings 110M over last year’s full filing figures of 165M, as of 4/30/21, only 66% or 2/3 of payments have been filed.
https://themarketear.com/
Goldman estimate that the realized capital gains from 2020 is the largest on record at $1.64 Trillion in US equities (excluding crypto). Roughly 15 million new online brokerage accounts were opened online last year. These are new investors and may not have estimated quarterly payments during a banner year for retail traders. There has been a rush google how to pay taxes and equal rush to sell what you own to pay 2020 gains? Retail YOLO is rolling over and raising cash from potentially “march 2020” gains.
As of 4/30/21, 110M taxes were filed for Tax year 2020. In 2019, there were 165M taxes filed. If I take current tax filings 110M over last year’s full filing figures of 165M, as of 4/30/21, only 66% or 2/3 of payments have been filed.
https://themarketear.com/
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: So far the pattern continues..... BTFD after tagging the 50 dma remains a winner..... We shall see if the SPY can move back above the 20 dma or are we seeing a change in the pattern. I would guess for you, but I have to see a move back above the ma's to confirm a low and the start of a new cycle. It is looking good so far.
