Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

This would be the 3rd-weakest breath since 1962. This remains a concern as we are deep into this daily cycle. (42 days)


SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

Dec 29, 2020

If we froze the session right now, the S&P 500 would close at a new high.

And yet fewer than 40% of issues and less than 40% of volume on the NYSE are advancing.

This would be the 3rd-weakest breath since 1962.

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader



SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
Dec 31, 2020
Thursday 10:00:

SS LOLR STS
Up Down Up
1/6 4/3 2/5

Breadth: -800/-1200

McO -26

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 

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Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
·
3h
"Jay Powell will be the co-pilot and the pilot will be Janet Yellen. Because whether its tax redistribution or creating more employment, it has to come through fiscal. Monetary has done virtually everything it can do."

The Fed Is Powerful, Except in Fighting Wealth Inequality

The Covid-19 crisis showed the stark difference between how monetary and fiscal policy can lift the U.S. economy.

“Monetary policy cannot change the distribution of wealth, monetary policy cannot get the stimulus to the right places today — it has to be fiscal,” Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, told me in an interview. When it comes to steering the economy, “Jay Powell will be the co-pilot and the pilot will be Janet Yellen. Because whether its tax redistribution or creating more employment, it has to come through fiscal. Monetary has done virtually everything it can do.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...powerful-except-in-fighting-wealth-inequality


Why the wealthiest Americans should prepare for ‘a revolt against the unprecedented inequality’

When the top 10%’s bubble pops in 2021, the loss of illusions/delusions of security and wealth will be shattering to all those who believed artifice and illusory ‘wealth’ were real.“
That’s Charles Hugh Smith, previously hailed by CNBC as one of the best alternative financial bloggers on the internet, offering up his unsettling outlook for the coming year.

“Those in America’s top 10% who have reaped virtually all the gains in income and wealth of the past 20 years live in a bubble that they view as unbreakable: no matter what problems arise, their personal income and wealth is secured by the government, central bank, etc,” he said.

In other words, those at the top of the wealth-power pyramid are confident any financial pain will quickly be soothed by the Federal Reserve and its willingness to keep printing money.

While that has, indeed, been mostly true for years now, Smith pointed to the folly in that thinking.

“We cannot print wealth, or borrow it into existence,” he continued. “All we can print/borrow is artifice, phantom representations of illusory ‘wealth’ that will vanish into thin air, in a reverse of how the ‘money’ was created — out of thin air.” This will lead to assets of the elite getting “crushed” without the backstop of liquidity. Stocks, he warned, “will go bidless as phantom wealth dissipates.”



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...ed-are-they-11609360165?mod=mw_more_headlines
 

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Definitely can see the inequality come into play in 2021. I'm not talking the typical complaints, but I read that the top three richest Americans are worth more than the bottom 50%. Something is wrong there.

Insider selling seems to be normalizing with most of the rats having already fled the barn after Biden won.

My concern is all the SPAC's and IPO's that are basically insider windfalls. SPAC's are getting a ton of hot money and they need somewhere to put it. Where else besides an IPO where everyone can sell their "IPO priced shares" to retail traders who believe the CNBC company hype. Nothing more than a transfer or wealth that can be goosed as long as you stick SaaS or EV somewhere in your company profile.

I thought there would be a 5% drop or so in December, then ramp up in January, but I was wrong. People could front load their IRA contributions with these relief checks, but again, we're only kicking the can down the road until the next stimulus.
 
"Definitely can see the inequality come into play in 2021".

"IF" the Dem's take back the senate look for much higher taxes for at least the first two years of Biden's run. LOL.... What will Janet and Jerome do as a team...... OH BOY!
 

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GDX and GDXJ have roughly completed one-third to one-half of their total corrections price-wise and more than half time-wise.


GDX and GDXJ both reached their highest levels in roughly 7-1/2 years on August 5, 2020 and have since formed numerous lower highs. Their corrections will likely continue until we get the usual combination of fund net outflows, insider buying of their components, persistently negative media coverage, frequent intraday bottoms near the opening bell, GDX and GDXJ repeatedly outperforming GLD, and other classic bottoming signs which have occurred repeatedly during the past five years. This sector often forms important lows in the late winter which I had referred to many years ago as a "crocus bottom."

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Dec 30, 2020
If you're not worried when you see ultra-speculative firms like Ark and Softbank able to raise money via ultra-speculative vehicles like SPACs, then you're either:

1) Too young to have lived thru a market cycle
2) Completely ignorant of history, or
3) Blinded by bias

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
 
""Still learning, are you referring to dot com bubble?""

The 2000 and the 2007 bubbles..... Party like it's 1999 is more like the one we are in now..... However, valuations are hitting extremes not seen in 40 years. Probably plenty of folks here at TSP talk traded both those bubbles. That is why we have more fear the the Robinhood folks trading today. We remember, and those bear markets lasted many months. We also had a deep recession, and could have another one if they don't get COVID under control.

A new record in severely overvalued companies: The rise in sentiment has coincided with a spike in valuations of S&P 500 companies. Nearly 40% of stocks are now severely overvalued, the most in more than 40 years. Net of undervalued companies, we've never seen extremes like this, and high values have preceded weak returns.

sentimentrader.com
 

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So who is buying this overvalued market? It's sure not the insiders....

SPAC's and people who are buying their shares. Since "actively managed mutual fund" is now a taboo word, people are using these to take a shot at alpha. Nobody cares about the fees when you can get in on the next UBER, ABNB, LMND or SNOW. Place your bets.

In 2007 everyone wanted in on hedge funds.

https://stockmarketmba.com/listofshellcompanies.php
 
RE: Margin Debt

Not a very promising chart, though the naive will just say it's different this time because of retail trader account access.

Another indication we're facing 2000 or 2007 again.
 
Yes Sir! It's ugly out there, but you will not here that on CNBC....... The stock market just doesn't seem to care for now, and most don't really understand how overvalued this market really is.

With all that said the trend remains up..... I'm flat going into 2021 on the long side, but have a few small short positions..... I normally trade what is happening not what I think will happen, but thought a SDS trade was worth a shot. This has been another nice run on my daily data chart. As you know I trade the daily data both ways.

A have some SDS, but I still do not have a confirmed sell signal. My system remains long, but this market is at a historical extreme levels so I will pass on holding long positions for now.

A few facts on just how ugly it is if you have some time. Most are just clueless on these facts, but that is why they continue to make money. However, I use risk management when trading and most new traders don't. I just can't be long now with all the risk indicators I'm seeing.....

"""Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.""""
Jesse Livermore


The Ugly Truth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N_Lgzn1v2A&feature=emb_logo
 

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Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm

1h
On the great disconnect between financial #markets and the real #economy. H/T Robert Koenigsberger. #WallStreet #mainstreet
 

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IWM likes the senate win.... It looks like a gap up for IWM and a test of the 201.18 market, and a move above the upper BB. We could see another new all time high at the open.

The trend remains up, but with out me.....

Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
Jesse Livermore
 

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IWM continues to be extremely stretched above its 200 dma..... not that most investors even care. However, I do!
 

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I just bought a tranche of TLT and some TZA. When IWM moves above the upper BB on a news event TZA is usually a winner in the days ahead. This is a short term trade.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41605232127&a=866890402

Take Care. Now that the election is almost complete I will post at the other site more.

TLT.....


Vanguard homepage

Notice of a brokerage order execution
Dear robo

The following order executed on 01/06/2021 at 10:12 AM, Eastern time:

Account: 0330
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Market
Security: ISHARES 20+ YR TREASURY BOND ETF (TLT)
Quantity: 25 share(s)
Price:* $152.34
 

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