Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

I Bonds! This tells me bank rates are headed higher next year.

The I-Bond rate starting on November 1, 2021 is 7.12% as someone else had accurately calculated and which I cited in a previous update.

I currently DO NOT own any I Bonds.


The rate for I Bonds which are purchased today or any time over the next six months will be 7.12% for six months and all older I Bonds will establish this inflation component for six.

Kaplan
https://twitter.com/truecontrarian?lang=en



What interest will I get if I buy an I bond now?
The composite rate for I bonds issued from November 2021 through April 2022 is 7.12 percent. This rate applies for the first six months you own the bond.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm#now

How much in I bonds can I buy for myself?
In a calendar year, you can acquire:

up to $10,000 in electronic I bonds in TreasuryDirect
up to $5,000 in paper I bonds using your federal income tax refund
Two points:

The limits apply separately, meaning you could acquire up to $15,000 in I bonds in a calendar year
Bonds you buy for yourself and bonds you receive as gifts or via transfers count toward the limit. Two exceptions:
If a bond is transferred to you due to the death of the original owner, the amount doesn't count toward your limit
If you own a paper bond issued before 2008, you can convert it to an electronic bond in your account in TreasuryDirect regardless of the amount of the bond. (The annual limit before 2008 was greater than today's limit of $10,000.)
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm#myself

 

[robo]

I have NO IDEA how the rest of the year will play out. In fact, I don't really care since I trade what is happening and not what I think will happen.

SPY daily: Another new ATH today and the trend remains UP!

 

[robo]

More on November Buyers! So for all of the years looked at how many were at an extreme like we are currently in. NONE.... Not that it matters to me since I trade the trend and it remains UP! You know, apples to apples type comparing of data. I wonder how the SPX did in November of 1929. That is about where we are now, but I still think the current market might be a tad more overbought. I know, this is nothing like 1929...... It's different this time. Still, my point was apples to apples should be used when comparing historical data. At least that is how I try to do it.

Remember November?
November is the 3rd largest inflow month. And it kicks-off the absolutely strongest stretch on inflow months of the season...some big months coming up.


Seasonality Bonanza
Just sit back and enjoy as seasonality kicks in? The problem we could be facing is that even the bears are referring to the positive seasonality pattern. Sentimentrader writes:

41.8% of all years saw a drawdown of LESS THAN -1% (a dip).

85.1% of all years saw a drawdown of LESS THAN -5% (a pullback).

95.5% of all years saw a drawdown of LESS THAN -10% (a correction).

(chart since 1953).

 

[robo]

This should bring in some more buyers. I'm tracking a couple of guys that think we are close to a huge pull-back, but they have been wrong for sometime now!

An 85% Chance That Stocks Won't Suffer a Pullback
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-11-01 at 07:30:00 CDT
It is not a secret that the 4th quarter tends to be good for stock market investors, particularly beginning in late October. Jay examined one specific period and measured the results.

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for the S&P 500 Index.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-968d3ce474-1271291994

 

[robo]

SPY daily: "Easy Money Monday" and the first day of the month and we should get another nice gap up at the open.

Hmmm......

Ship Ahoy
96 ships are waiting outside LA/LB vs. 109 the previous week. Chart shows number of ships anchored at ports of LA/LB.

Anchored
Overall, 37% of the global containership fleet is tied up in ports.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

The Fed is not the only Big Buyer.......

Buybacks Just Passed One Trillion
YTD buyback authorizations are over $1 trillion. A lot of buying every day...
https://themarketear.com/

The Fed Could Still Be Reinvesting $50-60bn/Mo After Tapering
Fed monthly MBS reinvestment needs by rate scenario (base case follows forward curve), $bn

 

[robo]

For those that track this data... It is explained at the link below, and I created a chart that I will update weekly.

For the record: I DO NOT use this data for trading, but another data point I track. However, the data indicates the odds are high for a ST pullback in the weeks ahead. RSI 5 over 95ish and NAAIM over 103ish.... It only happened 2 other times on this chart and all resulted in a ST pullback. This is will be the 3rd time on this chart and we shall see how it plays out. In this market it will probably a time to add shares back if you reduced like I did moving up and making new ATH's.... I look for "extremes" when making charts up based on sentiment.

NAAIM Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members.

The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.

It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and to stay in tune with what the market is doing at any given time. As the name indicates, the NAAIM Exposure Index provides insight into the actual adjustments active risk managers have made to client accounts over the past two weeks.
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

 

[robo]

Some tweets that make you go hmmmmm......

Inflation Inflation Everywhere
The inflation data-points just keep on coming in with many charts look extreme. We wanted to do a thread on the most recent ones. The "call for inflation" is very strong and also very consensual. However, do not forget that some experts still believe in "transitory". For example, declines in durable goods prices are likely to drive inflation lower next year, more than offsetting a sharp acceleration in shelter inflation. Time for a thread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link

See new Tweets
Conversation
Nautilus Research
@NautilusCap
S&P Earnings Yield - Inflation (CPI YoY.)


xTrends
@xtrends

Oct 29
$SPX tagged 4600 and correlation between $SPX and $VVIX is rising with $SPX as I predicted. After a little more upside the market will likely start to correct.... could be a big swoon like Sep 2020 because there was no washout at Oct low. I will start selling longs soon

 

[robo]

SPY daily: The trend is up, and Greed is good!

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

After breaking out to new all time highs on Tuesday, stocks backtested the breakout level on Wednesday.

After emerging from the ICL stocks have begun closing above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/stocks-deliver-buy-signal-2/

 

[robo]

Keeping an eye on the VIX

VIX 30 minute data: Higher lows? Still tracking the move under 15ish....

 

[robo]

Ok, I checked the data out based on this tweet below, and made a chart to look over. It COULD be a leading indicator. We shall see how it plays out! You can look at my chart below and decided for yourself. I DO NOT use this data for trading, but thought it was worth a look.

Daily SPY/NAAIM data chart: Hmmmmmm..... folks are feeling good for sure. RSI over 95ish and NAAIM over 103..... LOL..... That doesn't mean it can't go higher based on my chart below, but the RSI is getting extreme with the NAAIM over a 100.

Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up as it hits new ATHs!

SevenSentinels Retweeted
Helene Meisler
@hmeisler
·
2h
NAAIM Exposure 103. First time over 100 since the spring.

Yep, folks feeling good.

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[tsptalk]

Robo is a rock star and a must read! Thanks!!

 

[robo]

Hmmmm.... Not an indicator I would use, but interesting for sure. LOL..... Granddaddy.....I haven't heard that word in sometime.....


This Granddaddy of All Indicators Just Broke Out
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-10-28 at 07:35:00 CDT
Earlier this week, the Advance/Decline Line for S&P 500 stocks broke out to a new high. A line that incorporates the breadth of all securities traded on the NYSE hadn't quite done the same. Now it has.

For the first time in more than 90 days, the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line is sitting at a record high. Analysts have focused on this indicator since the earliest days of widespread data dissemination.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-8179e15bb9-1271291994

 

[robo]

SPY daily: Back above the 3 ema..... we shall see how we close today...... Maybe this is just a small pullback as the 10 sma on the daily tries to catch up....

 

[robo]

Never Forget - This Inflow Streak Cannot Be Repeated
Global Equities logged >$1 Trillion dollars worth of inflows during the last 51 weeks and the start of positive vaccine news. This is the biggest market structure dynamic of the year. For context, the prior best rolling 51 week record was +$250 Billion. 2021 is 4x larger than the next best yearly inflow.

 

[robo]

SPY daily: A move below the 3 ema is a ST sell signal for me. We shall see how it plays out.


SPX Loves Making Local Highs With These Candle Formations
SPX loves topping out with a shooting star/doji followed by a confirmation candle lower. That is exactly what we have seen develop over past 2 sessions.

Let's see how this plays out, but with various cross assets moving in an erratic fashion, why not some stress in SPX?

After all, everybody believes in the seasonality melt up...
https://themarketear.com/

 

[Bullitt]

Not something I use or track, but Jessie does.....

ETF - BUZZ is VanEck Social Sentiment ETF and probably comes close.

Holdings updated daily here: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/social-sentiment-etf-buzz/holdings/

 

[robo]

Not something I use or track, but Jessie does.....

Stonks: The Canary In The Stock Market Coal Mine

jessefelder
October 27, 2021 I’ll be watching this new index to see if it can make a lower low, as that might indicate a downtrend is underway. And, considering they could represent the canary in the bull market coal mine, a bear market in stonks could have important implications for stocks in a broader sense.

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/27/stonks-the-canary-in-the-stock-market-coal-mine/

 

[robo]

VIX daily: Will it be different this time? Big money spending in DC might make a difference. The news cycle seems to indicate it will pass soon. I think stocks are also now pricing in the New Deal!

When the VIX has moved close to or under 15ish we have gotten a spike in the weeks ahead. We shall see how this move below 15 plays out.

We shall see about the data below..... Breath remains negative as we grind higher.


SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

1h
Wednesday 12:00

SS LOLR STS
Up Down Down
7/0 0/7 0/7

Breadth -1200/-1500

NYSE McO: +3
NASDAQ McO: +1
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

LOL.....

Risks, A Few, But Then Again, Too Few To Mention...
Markets will probably never go down again in our life-time. Stocks have of course reached a permanently high plateau. You know the drill...However, at fresh all-time-highs it is always prudent to re-visit the "risks" to the market. Please see a quick run-down of what the consensus risks to the equity bull are right now.

https://themarketear.com/