Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

"Let's see how he's done over the last five years."

That is the reason I started trend trading..... No BIAS..... The trend is up I'm LONG. The trend is down I'm in CASH or shorting with a small position. When my indicators are hitting extremes, I just reduce position size.

These are crazy times indeed to be trading the stock market. The Bubble will POP, but until then I trade what I see happening, not what I think will happen.

Have a nice day Brother!

Daily VXF: I trade VXF at Vanguard.......

 

[Bullitt]

Nothing at you and I know how you roll. We've learned our lessons in hard knocks from the guessers.

I used to follow Hussman with his periodic email research papers and stopped following him some time around May. I just got so tired of the negativity, years of rooting for a car crash, years of criticizing the federal reserve, years of the whole stupid fiat argument...

Yet, he seemed happy in March. Probably because some of his funds had actually done okay, but I just couldn't take it anymore. Misery loves company and the COVID thing is hard enough. I've cut a lot of things out of my life in the past nine months that did not bring positivity. He was one of them.

 

[robo]

GDX 100 dma still acting as resistance.......

 

[robo]

Nothing at you and I know how you roll. We've learned our lessons in hard knocks from the guessers.

I used to follow Hussman with his periodic email research papers and stopped following him some time around May. I just got so tired of the negativity, years of rooting for a car crash, years of criticizing the federal reserve, years of the whole stupid fiat argument...

Yet, he seemed happy in March. Probably because some of his funds had actually done okay, but I just couldn't take it anymore. Misery loves company and the COVID thing is hard enough. I've cut a lot of things out of my life in the past nine months that did not bring positivity. He was one of them.

I still follow him because his long term data has merit, but if you are a trader timing is everything.... In the years ahead we shall see if his long term projections plays out. My goal is to make 10% a year with my retirement funds, but I make low risk trades by using risk management. I do have some accounts I take much higher risks, but they are NOT retirement funds for my wife.

"My sense is that passive investors will end up holding the bag here. Every security that is issued has to be held by someone, at every moment in time, until that security is retired. Every dollar that comes “into” the market in the hands of a buyer gets taken out an instant later in the hands of a seller. It’s impossible, in aggregate, for investors to “get out” of the market. There’s no point in advocating it, except for those whose risk-tolerance and investment horizon could not tolerate 10-12 years of negative average total returns with an intervening market loss on the order of 60-70%. The inescapable fact is that every dollar of paper “wealth” that someone takes out of stocks here is just a transfer of wealth from some investor who gets in at these valuations."

"For passive investors, the chart below shows our projection of expected 12-year average annual nominal total returns for a passive investment mix invested 60% in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills. This projection is now easily the lowest in U.S. history."

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201220/

 

[Bullitt]

S&P 500 now 29% above 200 DMA and was above the top Bollinger band a few trading days ago.

 

[robo]

The extremes continue to get more extreme.....

Bottom Line: The trend remains up.....

There can be little doubt that regardless of rates or future prospects, investors are willing to pay a high amount for current earnings. Over the past 40 years, there have never been more mild, moderate, or severely overvalued companies within the S&P 500.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/an-extreme-record-in-mild-valuations/

 

[robo]

Watching this pattern....

Current Commitments of Traders Charts

 

[robo]

Is it time to hedge if you own small cap stocks?


SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

22h
Small cap stocks drive the breadth figures on the NYSE to a large extent. When small caps do well, breadth is good, and vice-versa. Not today.

Today is one of the few times since 1979 when the Russell was up 0.9% or more and yet NYSE breadth was this negative.

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

 

[robo]

IWM gaps.....


Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

21h
Some day the Fed will reach its inflation target.

$IWM +40.5% since its October low.

 

[robo]

VXF - What a nice run it has been! 38% above the 200 dma and moving higher....

 

[robo]

The 2007 IWM Santa rally..... Tom has mentioned this a few times..... We don't always get what we want for xmas!

 

[robo]

The 2000

 

[robo]

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
Dec 27
5 PM, December 28, 2020

Open To ALL:

Answering The Billion Dollar Question

To summarize- we are experiencing, right now, the “Big Daddy” of all market tops- the biggest of our lifetimes. The opportunity ahead for short-side traders is nothing short of spectacular! BUT markets are still advancing, and to short now will almost certainly produce losses before those magnificent gains begin to emerge.
What can the astute trade do at this most unique time in history? The following:
Recognize from the data above that markets are very close now to the end of one of the most critical market tops in decades, and
Keep very close tabs on the Short- and Intermediate-Term TRENDS
When the IT trend turns down, get out and get short

https://sevensentinels.com/answering-the-billion-dollar-question/

 

[Bullitt]

Oh man. Don got it right in February and called it the big one back then. Now this is the "big daddy".

We recognize this setup for the most consequential Bear Market of our lifetimes in the 2020s. But there is more- much more evidence of the potency of the calamity that will follow.

The dollar Value of Options exceeded the dollar value of stocks traded during August 2020- 114%. We do not have to look back at some historical Stock Bubble in history books to find this madness.

This is no “ordinary” top; we believe it will prove to be one for the ages.

 

[robo]

Something to think about from Jessie as we continue to hit additional extremes..... A chart for the 2007 and 2000 tops.... Apples to apples.....

It's time to go fishing in my opinion.

Failure to take advantage of a serendipitous act of good luck in the stock market is often a mistake.
Jesse Livermore

One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.
Jesse Livermore

If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.
Jesse Livermore

Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear.

"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world."
Jesse Livermore

Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
Jesse Livermore

Do not use the words “Bullish” or “Bearish.” These words fix a firm market-direction in the mind for an extended period of time. Instead, use “Upward Trend” and “Downward Trend” when asked the direction you think the market is headed. Simply say: “The line of least resistance is either upward or downward at this time.” Remember, don’t fight the tape!
Jesse Livermore

There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. There is a time to go fishing.
Jesse Livermore

https://www.english-culture.com/50-famous-quotes-by-jesse-livermore/

 

[robo]

The current market is more overvalued then 2000 or 2008

 

[robo]

"Oh man. Don got it right in February and called it the big one back then. Now this is the "big daddy".

Not a time to be fully long using leverage like many are.

With that said, the trend remains up, but we are seeing lots of warning indicators! Time to hedge or reduce some....

 

[robo]

VTI = The total stock market. 42 days since the last buy signal and the trend still remains up! I use the daily closing price. I will be trading VTI only in one of my accounts at Vanguard during 2021. Lots of reasons not to be long here, but the fact is the trend remains up.

I'm expecting to see some selling in the early part of January. Insiders have continued to sell this move up, and I think that will continue going into next year.

Happy New Year and we can only hope for things to get better in 2021. The first part of the year still looks gloomy, but the stock market doesn't seem to care.

 

[robo]

The SPY sure looks like it's trying to complete this run..... This daily cycle is getting long in tooth.....

 

[robo]

WEEKEND GOLD FORECAST DECEMBER 31, 2020
Posted on December 31, 2020 by admin

SPY- Stock market gains have slowed significantly after the November elections and vaccine news. As I’ve said before, the good news seems to be baked in. I think we will see a correction in January. How severe? I’m not sure. Closing below 350 would open the door to 320. However, it would take a breakdown below 295 to support a double-dip recession.


https://goldpredict.com/archives/27654