Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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$VIX: Daily....

HMMMM....... What is this telling us?
 

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$VIX: Weekly.....

Still trying to fill the gap or was it close enough?
 

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I use this type of data for trading..... Note the daily VIX chart below..... That is a Bullish indicator. We shall see how it plays out....

How to Trade the New VIX Buy Signal

Bollinger Bands (the blue lines) indicate the most probable trading range for a stock or an index. Whenever a chart moves outside of its Bollinger Bands, it signals an “extreme” condition. In the case of the VIX, these extreme conditions trigger buy and sell signals for the broad stock market.

Sell signals occur whenever the VIX closes below its lower Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands. Buy signals occur when the VIX closes above its upper Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/how-to-trade-the-new-vix-buy-signal-2/

Some useful data about the $VIX for trading.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/?s=vix
 

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Note how the SPY moved back above the 3 ema and the 13 ema..... That is a whipsaw and a new buy signal for me, but I already went flat after the sell signal. I'm not willing to buy back shares just yet..... It took around 30 days for the SPY to move back below the 13 ema after a confirmed buy signal. I want to see how this plays out..... I will be short-term trading only for now....

Bottom Line: Still not much fear for being long in this market.
 

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Agree, what percentage of time does any random stock stay within the Bollinger bands, either imbedded or nonembedded on a slow stochastics, on consecutive days or consecutive weeks (NOT a monthly, weekly, yearly, 5 year, or 10 year review.) I ask out of curiosity to your appreciation and understanding of this metric.
 
grimmjsg123 said:
what percentage of time does any random stock stay within the Bollinger bands,
Click to expand...

From the man himself.

One of the great joys of having invented an analytical technique such as Bollinger Bands is seeing what other people do with it. The rules below covering the use of Bollinger Bands were assembled in response to questions often asked by users and our experience over 30 years of using the bands. While there are many ways to use Bollinger Bands, these rules should serve as a good beginning point.
Click to expand...

https://www.bollingerbands.com/bollinger-band-rules
 
The first time I've seen that and I learned some, gotta work with it! I copied it!!:banana:
 
Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

It may be said this is the most one directionally positioned market ever. Short interest lowest ever, call volumes highest ever, asset managers most bullish positioned, financial conditions loosest ever, record valuations w/historic extreme deviations from basic moving averages.


The total equity and index call options (average daily volume for the past 20 days) almost reached 22.5 million as of Monday - Bloomberg data
 

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Markets stay within the bans on consecutive trading weeks 95% of the time, anywhere you look in our TSP ETF you will not find 10 consecutive weeks above a Bollinger band 5 is the limit. On a daily basis, if you look back before the sell off for the Covid, and subsequent sell offs in June. September, October, they were preceded by an ETF rising above the Bollinger Band on a daily basis. If you see it pop above that band on a daily basis, a rule of thumb is at least take some money off the table if not all and move to G. Plot the daily Bollinger Bands and look back retrospectively before each of our downturns this year they were foretold by the breaching the upper Bollinger band.
 
I agree. The market is very close to a 3% to 5% pullback based on my data. After that, we will see where she goes. The Senate race will be a big factor on the market's next major move in my opinion. Taxes will go way up if the Dem's sweep. We could still see some tax selling/profit taking before the end of the year. So, I don't use the BB except to track extremes and monitor the VIX. All the opinions, data, guesses, etc mean nothing to me even though I read over plenty of it. For now I will just watch the show and stay mainly in cash.

I just trade the trend using my trading system. I use the 3 and 13 emas, and over ten risk/reward indicators which most are now warning of a pullback.

Bottom Line: The BBs is a good tool for trading, but it's only one of many I use with my trading plan. You could back test a BB system and see how it works out for you. I'm overall happy with my trading system. My goal is to catch 80% of a trend up and miss 80% of the move down during a down trend. There are times one should just be in cash because there is just not a clear trend. The current trend was up for over 30 days and very easy to trade for my system. The move since the March low has been a good run for sure....

Good Trading!

"Winning Market Timers Know the Secret

Ignore the news. Ignore the daily ups and downs. You have no control over them anyway. No one knows what the next day will bring. No one!

Wishing will not help. Watching the financial news religiously will not help. There is just no way to know what will happen tomorrow, or even what will happen next week.

But a successful trading plan that creates unemotional buy and sell decisions will, over time, make even the most emotional person, a successful (profitable) market timer."
 

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Euphoria now spiking past tech bust levels

Liz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSonders
Euphoria now spiking past tech bust levels
@Citi
Panic/Euphoria model
@SoberLook
 

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$VIX daily: Hmmmmmm...... Still watching the daily action of the VIX. I'm currently flat at Vanguard, but trading some short-term positions in other accounts.

We shall see!

VIX has been forming higher lows for three years.


VIX has dipped below 20 numerous times in recent weeks but hasn't closed below that key round number since February 21, 2020. The latest intraday lows were 21.95 on December 14, 2020 and 22.29 on December 16, 2020. I expect VIX to rally to around 60 or 70 during the first half of 2020 followed by lower highs which will serve as a useful confirming signal for purchasing global risk assets.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 

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GDX daily: Still NO LOVE for GDX as money flows into small caps and value stocks. However, the smart money and insiders continue to sell shares of stocks daily.

Sorry, but trading below the 200,100,50 and 13 ema is not something I want to buy.... I wait! GDX continue to make lower highs, but we are getting closer to a bottom. A nice bounce after the Fed speak.....

Insiders selling: Way more selling then buying, and it's been going on for sometime now. Also, these are big numbers.....

https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=10&tv=1000000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue
 

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Friday is a witching day, Tesla moving to S and P 500 Monday. Traders are selling to garner liquidity to shift from other areas to the s and p 500 to follow Tesla; this was expected...…..
 
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