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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Seasonality talk again: Never forget - NASDAQ seasonality should kick in soon (again)...or?
For the record: I DO NOT trade based on Sentiment or Seasonality. Nothing wrong with tracking it...... Like a gentle breeze blowing at your back if you are long stocks.
Bottom Line: The trend for the SPY remains up!
LOL...... Why not? Just BTD as the trend remains up.
Stop thinking. Keep on buying
Sanford Bernstein says stay "all-in". Bernstein Equity strategy "slightly" bullish: "Despite the phenomenal performance of equities in the US (and Europe) year to date, we remain overweight. It has been a knockout year for earnings growth, and as a result, equity funds have seen $1 trillion in inflows over the past twelve months. While valuations are expensive compared to history, we believe equity outperformance can continue for three reasons: (1) earnings growth forecasts for 2022 are quite low (US consensus at ~7.5% growth and these are the most pessimistic assumptions in our forecasts), (2) a return of share buybacks ought to support the market (12% higher vs. 2019 levels, 36% higher in Europe), and (3) there is still another $1 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines in money market funds. Fundamentally, we also believe real yields help justify market valuations – and historically, we’ve noted that equities can still generate positive returns even when real yields normalize back towards zero from negative."
For the record: I DO NOT trade based on Sentiment or Seasonality. Nothing wrong with tracking it...... Like a gentle breeze blowing at your back if you are long stocks.
Bottom Line: The trend for the SPY remains up!
LOL...... Why not? Just BTD as the trend remains up.
Stop thinking. Keep on buying
Sanford Bernstein says stay "all-in". Bernstein Equity strategy "slightly" bullish: "Despite the phenomenal performance of equities in the US (and Europe) year to date, we remain overweight. It has been a knockout year for earnings growth, and as a result, equity funds have seen $1 trillion in inflows over the past twelve months. While valuations are expensive compared to history, we believe equity outperformance can continue for three reasons: (1) earnings growth forecasts for 2022 are quite low (US consensus at ~7.5% growth and these are the most pessimistic assumptions in our forecasts), (2) a return of share buybacks ought to support the market (12% higher vs. 2019 levels, 36% higher in Europe), and (3) there is still another $1 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines in money market funds. Fundamentally, we also believe real yields help justify market valuations – and historically, we’ve noted that equities can still generate positive returns even when real yields normalize back towards zero from negative."
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Some tweets
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
1h
Wednesday 1:40
SS LOLR STS
Up Down Down
1/6 1/6 0/7
Breadth: -1500/-1800 ( First Chart)
NYSE McO: -38
NASDAQ McO: -25
SentimenTrader (Second Chart)
@sentimentrader
·
21h
Just your friendly neighborhood reminder that Wall Street is cyclical.
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
·
Nov 11
#ElonMusk has been doing in 2021 exactly what most other top corporate insiders have. This is consistent with how the world's most-experienced investors have behaved in 2021 and which is the exact opposite of what the vast majority of asset-chasing amateurs have been doing.
Elon has been selling shares as many insiders have been doing.
Ok, another easy money week!
StockTrader'sAlmanac
@AlmanacTrader
·
21h
November Monthly Option Expiration Week: DJIA Best - DJIA has been up 14 of the last 19 years on November’s monthly option expiration Friday with an average gain of 0.49%. By the way, it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same...
https://twitter.com/almanactrader?lang=en
https://twitter.com/elerianm
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
1h
Wednesday 1:40
SS LOLR STS
Up Down Down
1/6 1/6 0/7
Breadth: -1500/-1800 ( First Chart)
NYSE McO: -38
NASDAQ McO: -25
SentimenTrader (Second Chart)
@sentimentrader
·
21h
Just your friendly neighborhood reminder that Wall Street is cyclical.
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
·
Nov 11
#ElonMusk has been doing in 2021 exactly what most other top corporate insiders have. This is consistent with how the world's most-experienced investors have behaved in 2021 and which is the exact opposite of what the vast majority of asset-chasing amateurs have been doing.
Elon has been selling shares as many insiders have been doing.
Ok, another easy money week!
StockTrader'sAlmanac
@AlmanacTrader
·
21h
November Monthly Option Expiration Week: DJIA Best - DJIA has been up 14 of the last 19 years on November’s monthly option expiration Friday with an average gain of 0.49%. By the way, it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same...
https://twitter.com/almanactrader?lang=en
https://twitter.com/elerianm
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
"It's the 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year"
See chart and comments at the link below.
"Still, I find that tracking the number of signals over certain time periods has a great deal of value at forecasting increasing volatility. The history of the Nasdaq Composite over the past couple of decades is a good example of this. This week saw the index trigger its 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year. In the past, this degree of persistent dispersion has been a consistent precursor to corrections or bear markets in the index."
The Fasten Seat Belt Sign Just Lit Up
jessefelder
November 17, 2021
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/17/the-fasten-seat-belt-sign-just-lit-up/
Speaking of Volatility......
VIV daily chart and the move under 15ish pattern: It remains in play.... We will hit 25ish in the weeks ahead? Don't know. However, I have a small position of VXX for a hedge to protect my VTI position. My VTI position is small too this late in the daily cycle.
For the record: I "DO NOT" use this type of data for trading, but read all the free stuff I can get from Jesse Felder
See chart and comments at the link below.
"Still, I find that tracking the number of signals over certain time periods has a great deal of value at forecasting increasing volatility. The history of the Nasdaq Composite over the past couple of decades is a good example of this. This week saw the index trigger its 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year. In the past, this degree of persistent dispersion has been a consistent precursor to corrections or bear markets in the index."
The Fasten Seat Belt Sign Just Lit Up
jessefelder
November 17, 2021
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/17/the-fasten-seat-belt-sign-just-lit-up/
Speaking of Volatility......
VIV daily chart and the move under 15ish pattern: It remains in play.... We will hit 25ish in the weeks ahead? Don't know. However, I have a small position of VXX for a hedge to protect my VTI position. My VTI position is small too this late in the daily cycle.
For the record: I "DO NOT" use this type of data for trading, but read all the free stuff I can get from Jesse Felder
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: The Fed continues to add about 90 billion a week.....
Heading into the last hour and all looks well!
Looks like we are headed to another new ATH......
Bottom Line: the Trend remains up....
SPX monthly and some Xmas rallies to remember: ( Second chart) This time does look different as the money just keeps flowing into the market!
For the record: I trade using the daily data, not this historical data I just posted. I have NO IDEA what will happen next, but what I do know is all Bubbles POP! Since I trade both ways I don't really care what happens. I will just trade what is happening in real-time and NOT what I think will happen.
Heading into the last hour and all looks well!
Looks like we are headed to another new ATH......
Bottom Line: the Trend remains up....
SPX monthly and some Xmas rallies to remember: ( Second chart) This time does look different as the money just keeps flowing into the market!
For the record: I trade using the daily data, not this historical data I just posted. I have NO IDEA what will happen next, but what I do know is all Bubbles POP! Since I trade both ways I don't really care what happens. I will just trade what is happening in real-time and NOT what I think will happen.
Attachments
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robo
Well-known member
What TSI settings did you use on your first chart at post 2549?
I think it's 13,13,7 but not sure. That is a free chart from likesmoney, and I call him the cycle dude in some of my posts.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/09/stocks-form-a-swing-high/
I don't use the TSI indicator for trading, but do monitor it when it gets oversold/overbought, and we are deep into a daily cycle. I posted it on my VTI chart below.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:true_strength_index
TSI (True Strength Index) Indicator Explained and How to Use It
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlE-5lxOjIQ
I posted one on my charts with the "True Strength Index (TSI)" on the chart. (13,13,7)
It could be used as an early warning indicator, but I like to use the 3 ema for early warning. However, RSI/TSI, etc.... have their uses....
Take Care and have a nice day!
I think it's 13,13,7 but not sure. That is a free chart from likesmoney, and I call him the cycle dude in some of my posts.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/09/stocks-form-a-swing-high/
I don't use the TSI indicator for trading, but do monitor it when it gets oversold/overbought, and we are deep into a daily cycle. I posted it on my VTI chart below.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:true_strength_index
TSI (True Strength Index) Indicator Explained and How to Use It
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlE-5lxOjIQ
I posted one on my charts with the "True Strength Index (TSI)" on the chart. (13,13,7)
It could be used as an early warning indicator, but I like to use the 3 ema for early warning. However, RSI/TSI, etc.... have their uses....
Take Care and have a nice day!
Attachments
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hi Robo... once again awesome charts and observations. Wish I could give you more reputation points, but I get message that I must spread out the point giving. Ughh..
I did like your charts and find your comments very informative. What TSI settings did you use on your first chart at post 2549? I tried to mimic but default didn't work. TIA. :smile:
robo
Well-known member
GDP: Who cares about that?
During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.
“That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...e-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571
During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.
“That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...e-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Seasonality remains a hot topic! We are in the best 6 months......
Tis the season
Is upside still the main pain trade? Seasonality remains very supportive.
A few boring days and then the Thanksgiving bull, followed by the Santa rally?
Last chart shows the bigger picture of all indexes.
https://themarketear.com/
Tis the season
Is upside still the main pain trade? Seasonality remains very supportive.
A few boring days and then the Thanksgiving bull, followed by the Santa rally?
Last chart shows the bigger picture of all indexes.
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Attachments
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robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: Daily Cycle data.....
Stocks Waiting on Bullish Follow Through
While stocks formed a swing low on Friday, they did not deliver bullish follow through on Monday.
If stocks broke above he day 27 high of 4718.50, that would have shifted the odds of stocks entering a melt-up phase. However, stocks closed lower on the day. Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Any bearish follow through should send stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks should break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 and turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. This would allow stocks to backtest the 4545.85 breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. Which would set stocks up to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/15/stocks-waiting-on-bullish-follow-through/
Stocks Waiting on Bullish Follow Through
While stocks formed a swing low on Friday, they did not deliver bullish follow through on Monday.
If stocks broke above he day 27 high of 4718.50, that would have shifted the odds of stocks entering a melt-up phase. However, stocks closed lower on the day. Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Any bearish follow through should send stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks should break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 and turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. This would allow stocks to backtest the 4545.85 breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. Which would set stocks up to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/15/stocks-waiting-on-bullish-follow-through/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Seasonality - Sounds Good! But show me a best six months period on the chart below where the SPX was this far stretched above the 200 month sma. LOL..... There isn't one..... In this market historical data doesn't seem to matter. Well, not yet anyway.
With that said the Trend remains up....
https://themarketear.com/
With that said the Trend remains up....
https://themarketear.com/
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