Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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grimmjsg123 said:
Friday is a witching day, Tesla moving to S and P 500 Monday. Traders are selling to garner liquidity to shift from other areas to the s and p 500 to follow Tesla; this was expected...…..
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LOL.... I'm talking about the insiders and the smart money. That is not the reason they are selling. Traders are always buying and selling for some silly reason..... I do the same thing for some of my fun trades....

Bottom Line: The trend remains up, but the insiders continue to sell shares of their very over priced/over valued shares. They know when the value of their shares are way overpriced so they sell shares. That is what many are doing now, and have been doing for weeks.
 
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Bullitt said:
Selling has been abnormally high.
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Way above average for weeks now....

A nice close above the 200 dma for GDX..... Some will call today's move a bottom..... A nice move none the less above the 3, 13 and the 200 dma.... We shall see how it plays out.

I'm currently on a Zoom meeting with Kaplan.... He just talked about the miners...

The retail traders are currently the smart money one could say - since the trend remains up....

Who is still buying up here?
According to the latest franchise flow data from BoAM the battle in the trading pit is between a small professional well-trained army of institutions and hedge funds that are selling to an enormous mass-movement of poorly trained peasant soldiers, called Retail Army. And retail is winning.....

https://themarketear.com/

Free news letter at the link above.
 

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Just wanted to say thank you for all your post. Very educational and always a pleasure to absorb some of your knowledge.
Happy Holidays and be safe if your traveling........
 
47_Dodge said:
Just wanted to say thank you for all your post. Very educational and always a pleasure to absorb some of your knowledge.
Happy Holidays and be safe if your traveling........
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Thanks! I will post a few links, but i'm not doing any trading......

The “Rubber Band” Is Set To Snap
Jeff Clark | Dec 18, 2020 | Market Minute |

By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute

The small-cap rally is getting quite stretched. And, the rubber band could snap back any day.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index is up more than 20% in the past seven weeks. That’s a remarkable move, and it has lots of folks looking for even more gains as we close out 2020 and ring in 2021.

But, I’m not so sure…

Of course, that doesn’t mean IWM has to fall from here. It could just chop around near its current level for a few weeks and give the moving averages a chance to catch up to the current price. That’s probably the most bullish scenario.

It seems unlikely that IWM would rally strongly from here given its already extended condition. And, even a modest decline back to its 50-day MA would knock it down by 10%.

From a risk/reward perspective, the small-cap sector looks like a poor idea at the moment.

Best regards and good trading,

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/the-rubber-band-is-set-to-snap/
 
IWM daily: My chart for Jeff's comments above. Very stretched as Tom has been pointing out often.....
 

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Mark Hulbert
Opinion: Stock investors got the big bull market they wished for — and now they should be careful
Published: Dec. 19, 2020 at 9:07 a.m. ET

How much longer will this bull market last? That depends on which history you believe

To conduct such an analysis, I focused on the 30 bull markets since 1900 in the NDR calendar that lasted at least as long as 2020’s. In the case of most of those bull markets’ initial nine months, the Dow had gained a lot less than it has this year. In each of the four cases in which it rose as much or more as it has this year, the Dow was lower over the subsequent six months.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...ld-be-careful-2020-12-18?mod=newsviewer_click


Bottom Line: The trend remains up!
 

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Five charts from Sentiment Trader that shows you just how extreme some data is. Other indicators do remain Bullish is his point.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up! Not a market I care to be fully long in, but I use risk management when determining my position size.


SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
3h
If you can spot problems with some of these charts, so do we. This is not a balanced view, and it ignores several important factors.

These are from perma-bears, after all.

And to all a good night.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader
 

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robo said:
Five charts from Sentiment Trader that shows you just how extreme some data is. Other indicators do remain Bullish is his point.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up! Not a market I care to be fully long in, but I use risk management when determining my position size.


SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
3h
If you can spot problems with some of these charts, so do we. This is not a balanced view, and it ignores several important factors.

These are from perma-bears, after all.

And to all a good night.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader
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Is it safe to say we a due for a substantial pullback?
 
LOL..... Looking at the data one would think so, but my system remains on a buy signal for now.....

33 days since the confirmed buy signal and still going strong! As some are currently saying - We are in a meltup....

VXF daily below: Like the S fund

Bottom Line: Love it or hate it the Trend for stocks remains UP. Trend traders just follow the trend and it remains up! Some comments on Trend trading....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DeTQt9cjiU&feature=emb_logo


I'm not a sub at Fibtimer, but I do read his free weekly comments since I'm a trend trader.

"At Fibtimer we publish a weekly analysis for each strategy to prepare subscribers for what is "likely" to come. Better to be prepared than to be hit with surprises.

But we never presuppose that we are so smart we can tell, unerringly, what the markets will do next.

Trend timers do not try to anticipate reversals or breakouts. They respond to them.

Trend timers are not prognosticators. We just identify and follow trends.

Trend timers believe the markets are smarter than any of us. We make it our business not to try to figure out why the markets are going up or down, or even where they are going to stop.

Successful trend timers identify trends, trade those trends, and patiently allow them to play out while their profits grow.

Predicting the markets is a fool's game. It is fun to do over cups of morning coffee, but if you want to beat the financial markets, you must identify and trade trends.

You must also stay with your trend trading strategy through thick and thin. If no one can consistently predict where the markets are going, they also do NOT know when the next trend will begin. Taking all trades guarantees that you will never miss it when it start"

https://www.fibtimer.com/about/prior_commentaries.asp
 

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Stock Market Party
John Mauldin John Mauldin

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 18, 2020



I have no idea where the top is, but history tells us there is a top somewhere out there prior to another steep drop. I will speculate about that in my forecast issue in January. But as a reminder, friends don’t let friends buy-and-hold index funds. Index funds make excellent trading vehicles. Use them appropriately. And tighten your hedges.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/stock-market-party
 

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Taking a tool away from the Fed...... This could cause problems if their is another crises, and could cause a deeper selloff. I will just trade the trend, but these types of actions might give some investors a pause. The Fed has helped to keep this market moving higher. Next we wait on what will happen in the Senate race. That could be a BIG market moving event!

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is calling for the central bank’s emergency lending authorities to remain in place to fight future crises.

Bernanke’s statement comes as congressional lawmakers battle over a Republican-backed provision in the Covid-19 stimulus package that would end the Fed’s emergency lending powers.

"I strongly support the passage of new aid for families and businesses suffering from the effects of the pandemic. However, it is also vital that the Federal Reserve’s ability to respond promptly to damaging disruptions in credit markets not be circumscribed.

The relief act should ensure, at least, that the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending authorities, as they stood before the passage of the CARES Act, remain fully intact and available to respond to future crises."

Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, said on Saturday that Toomey’s provision has “nothing to do” with the pandemic and would damage the Biden administration’s ability to handle a recession.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/19/covid-updates-vaccine-stimulus.html
 
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We shall see how this pattern plays out. Please note how the commercials are positioned during these two time frames ( inside the red boxes) ..... Are they hedging or out right shorting? See COT data below..... (Next chart) You can see when they covered after the pullback.
 

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Latest COT data for SPY:

Bottom Line: The trend remains up, but the risk/reward data is very high.....
 

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LOL.... Maybe John is now a trend trade! Probably NOT. A weird spike up on my S&P daily data chart..... Waiting to see how the rest of the week plays out.....

Bottom line: Still no sell signal and the trend remains up!


"Given the most extreme valuations in history, it’s easy to focus strictly on my expectation of a 60-70% market loss over the completion of this cycle, while ignoring the fact that nothing in our investment discipline actually requires that outcome. I’ll say this again: we no longer respond to “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” extremes by adopting or amplifying a bearish outlook, unless our measures of market internals also indicate a shift in investor psychology toward risk-aversion. We are fully capable of navigating a world where market valuations never ever visit historical norms again. I just think it’s insane to rely on that idea."

A Good Response to a Bad Situation
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

Late-December 2020

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201220/
 

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Ever wonder why John Hussman is always rooting for a market crash? Let's see how he's done over the last five years.

HSGFX, -24.45% in the past five years. Benchmark is the S&P 500.

SPY has returned 80.58% in that same time frame.

His other two funds aren't benchmarked to the S&P 500, but have done quite terrible as well. Buy hey, not only is he a Ph.D, he's also PRESIDENT of his business so he must be smart.

hussman.JPG
 
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