Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Ran into two people from work who I have not seen in years a few days ago. The one was checking his TSP and the other noticed. Next thing you know, it turned into another one of those "how much did you make in 2020" discussions. "Bro, I'm up XX% this year, it's unbelievable. I check it every day"

The one said he got out in February, but never did say whether he got in or not. (I think he was telling the truth but has missed out on the massive ramp up since March.) The other was gloating about his gainz thru some trading service I had never heard of. The one who got out said he had heard of another guy who uses it and made $XXX,XXX.00 this year.

1. FOMO is happening in markets.
2. Don't compare what you have to others.
3. Make sure your foxhole is deep.
 
"FOMO is happening in markets."

IWM is now 32%ish above it's 200 dma
 

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Look how rare that 32% is on this 20 year chart.....
 

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The SPY is also stretched, but nothing like IWM. All of the risk management indicators I track (risk/reward) are hitting extremes.

However, I trade the trend and it remains up. I have now reduced to only a 10% long position.

Bottom Line: Love it or hate the market trend remains up!
 

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VXF is what I use for the S Fund at Vanguard..... It's around 34% now..... It really is amazing since we are probably in a fairly bad recession and it could take a few years to get out of this mess.....
 

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Amazing in just one year.... 2020 is the year of extremes. Fear and now greed at a rare extreme....

First 38% below the 200 dma and now 34% above........
 

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The SPY is imbedded and is slowly crawling up. The DWCP is in week 5 consecutively above the Bollinger band on a weekly basis which I have never seen over the upper Bollinger band. When it sells off it will be like a thief in the night with no indicator, steep and violent. Keep stop tights on those in the DWCPF.
 
LOL.... Just BTFD...... The trend remains up!

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

4h
BREAKING: Buy one small cap get one tulip free.
It takes a coordinated effort to create the largest market distortions ever:

Central Banks Step Up $5.6 Trillion Bond Binge Despite Doubts.

“QE works particularly well during periods of market disturbances, but it won’t be able to do much at this point for growth and inflation in the absence of fiscal policy,” said Peter Praet, former ECB chief economist and an architect of Europe’s own large-scale bond-buying plan that began in 2015.


Lisa Abramowicz
@lisaabramowicz1
The Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the ECB have spent $5.6 trillion this year alone on quantitative easing, & the central banks are expected to expand their purchase plans in the near future.
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles...tep-up-5-6-trillion-bond-binge-despite-doubts
 

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The miners tends to lead stocks..... That divergence usually completes at bottoms..... We shall see how it plays out this time.... Notice how they bottomed together in March.....
 

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$VIX Daily..... Testing the ( 19.51, 19.97 markers) ..... We shall see if the higher lows pattern holds up for this move down on the daily....
 

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It has been a very nice run....

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
The 9 gaps of Christmas.
 

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SPX extended 30% above the 200 DMA. Think early 2018 and early 2020 to see numbers that resemble this.
 
Bullitt said:
SPX extended 30% above the 200 DMA. Think early 2018 and early 2020 to see numbers that resemble this.
Click to expand...

They were close, but this could be a record that will hold for many years once we head deeper into this recession. The SPY is much less (VXF = The S Fund is currently over 30% above the mean - 200 dma). I have all my money at Vanguard now so I can use my trading system with unlimited moves anytime during the trading day. I use the 3 ema and the 13 ema, and indicators for risk management and position size. My son has money in TSP, but I moved my remaining funds this year.

The herd just loves stocks right now....

Uptrends, uptrends everywhere
Published: 2020-12-09 at 09:00:00 CST

Throughout October and into November, we looked at the thrusts and breadth of buying interest. It was some of the best we've ever seen, and that was on the heels of near record-shattering positive breadth in April and May.

As a result of that and follow through into December, almost every stock in the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average. With so many stocks in uptrends, it stands to reason that most industries would be as well. And in recent weeks, that has been the case, with 100% of them above their 200-day averages.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/
 

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Still very little fear out there of a pullback..... LOL..... nothing to worry about.....

One For The Ages, Part Deux

jessefelder
December 9, 2020

Back in June, amidst an explosion in speculative interest in the stock market, I decided, “it might be important to immortalize some of the stories in my recent Twitter feed in a blog post.” I titled that post, One For The Ages; consider this to be part two (of who knows how many) in that series.

As noted bubble-watcher Jeremy Grantham put it recently, “the real craziness” for equities has finally come out.

https://thefelderreport.com/2020/12/09/one-for-the-ages-part-deux/
 
"5th consecutive week above the Bollinger Band, no fear as it was expected."

Notice how quickly some will sell.... The key is who is going to BTFD when so many are already fully long. Once a panic starts it can cause additional selling as stops are hit on the way down. Without buyers providing support it can get ugly quickly..... Then we can see some real fear and a huge spike in the VIX.


Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

If you're wondering how much support is being built with these low volume gap up drift action markets:
$NDX just lost all of its December gains in one afternoon
 

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You must have saw something different than me, I saw it drop and dip buying going on; yes it may drop more and it may not. I know nothing of your history and am better for it. Have a good day
 
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