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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Time to Hit Pause on This Strong Sector
Jeff Clark | Feb 7, 2022 | Market Minute | 2 min read
So far, 2022 is proving to be the year of the oil stocks.
The price of oil is up more than 20% over the past five weeks. At $92 per barrel, oil now trades at its highest price in over seven years…
And oil stocks have been on fire!
The Energy Select Sector Fund (XLE) – which holds a market basket of oil companies – is up more than 23% since the start of 2022. It’s up more than 53% over the past year.
And given the supply/demand pressures in the energy sector, oil and oil stocks are likely headed even higher in the months ahead.
But in the short term, they’re due for a pause.
Let me explain…
Regular readers might recall how we turned cautious on the energy sector last October. We weren’t outright bearish – just cautious.
Investor sentiment towards the energy stocks seemed too bullish for our comfort level.
And the Bullish Percent Index for the energy sector (BPENER) was at its highest level possible – meaning 100% of the stocks in the index were trading with positive technical patterns.
It’s not mathematically possible for the BPENER to get any better than that. So we figured if it can’t get any better, then it’s probably going to get worse… and suggested waiting a bit before buying the energy stocks.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/time-to-hit-pause-on-this-strong-sector/
Jeff Clark | Feb 7, 2022 | Market Minute | 2 min read
So far, 2022 is proving to be the year of the oil stocks.
The price of oil is up more than 20% over the past five weeks. At $92 per barrel, oil now trades at its highest price in over seven years…
And oil stocks have been on fire!
The Energy Select Sector Fund (XLE) – which holds a market basket of oil companies – is up more than 23% since the start of 2022. It’s up more than 53% over the past year.
And given the supply/demand pressures in the energy sector, oil and oil stocks are likely headed even higher in the months ahead.
But in the short term, they’re due for a pause.
Let me explain…
Regular readers might recall how we turned cautious on the energy sector last October. We weren’t outright bearish – just cautious.
Investor sentiment towards the energy stocks seemed too bullish for our comfort level.
And the Bullish Percent Index for the energy sector (BPENER) was at its highest level possible – meaning 100% of the stocks in the index were trading with positive technical patterns.
It’s not mathematically possible for the BPENER to get any better than that. So we figured if it can’t get any better, then it’s probably going to get worse… and suggested waiting a bit before buying the energy stocks.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/time-to-hit-pause-on-this-strong-sector/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
That Bernstein Buy signal...
"Investor sentiment dropped sharply in January with our short-term composite sentiment indicator hitting lows of -1.38 in the third week of January, the most bearish short-term sentiment reading since the worst of the pandemic volatility and a buy signal over the following 4-6 weeks. Our longer term, Cross border flow indicator has eased to a neutral level having flagged moderately bullish sentiment in the middle of last year. In the past, global equity returns have been around long-term average levels over the following 12 months when the indicator has been
https://themarketear.com/
"Investor sentiment dropped sharply in January with our short-term composite sentiment indicator hitting lows of -1.38 in the third week of January, the most bearish short-term sentiment reading since the worst of the pandemic volatility and a buy signal over the following 4-6 weeks. Our longer term, Cross border flow indicator has eased to a neutral level having flagged moderately bullish sentiment in the middle of last year. In the past, global equity returns have been around long-term average levels over the following 12 months when the indicator has been
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
Feb 4
Confused? Nonfarm was +467k. But ADP was -301k. Historic divergence. HH employment was +1.2m; but -272k adjusting for the new Census population count. HH employment on a payroll/population-concept basis was -900k, the worst since Apr 2020. My advice -- forget about today's report
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
·
Feb 4
In the unadjusted data, January always shows a dip, as Xmas seasonal hires are let go. For Jan. 2022 was 2.39 million. The average January dip from 2015-21 has been 2.44 million. So pretty much a standard January number, and not nearly the growth that was advertised. [2/2]
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
@EconguyRosie
Feb 4
Confused? Nonfarm was +467k. But ADP was -301k. Historic divergence. HH employment was +1.2m; but -272k adjusting for the new Census population count. HH employment on a payroll/population-concept basis was -900k, the worst since Apr 2020. My advice -- forget about today's report
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
·
Feb 4
In the unadjusted data, January always shows a dip, as Xmas seasonal hires are let go. For Jan. 2022 was 2.39 million. The average January dip from 2015-21 has been 2.44 million. So pretty much a standard January number, and not nearly the growth that was advertised. [2/2]
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
robo
Well-known member
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
Feb 4
Confused? Nonfarm was +467k. But ADP was -301k. Historic divergence. HH employment was +1.2m; but -272k adjusting for the new Census population count. HH employment on a payroll/population-concept basis was -900k, the worst since Apr 2020. My advice -- forget about today's report
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
·
Feb 4
In the unadjusted data, January always shows a dip, as Xmas seasonal hires are let go. For Jan. 2022 was 2.39 million. The average January dip from 2015-21 has been 2.44 million. So pretty much a standard January number, and not nearly the growth that was advertised. [2/2]
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
@EconguyRosie
Feb 4
Confused? Nonfarm was +467k. But ADP was -301k. Historic divergence. HH employment was +1.2m; but -272k adjusting for the new Census population count. HH employment on a payroll/population-concept basis was -900k, the worst since Apr 2020. My advice -- forget about today's report
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
·
Feb 4
In the unadjusted data, January always shows a dip, as Xmas seasonal hires are let go. For Jan. 2022 was 2.39 million. The average January dip from 2015-21 has been 2.44 million. So pretty much a standard January number, and not nearly the growth that was advertised. [2/2]
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
robo
Well-known member
Miner Opportunity
Posted on February 5, 2022
The Miners printed its lowest point on day 30, placing them in their timing band for a DCL.
The Miners formed a swing low on Monday then broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to signal that day 30 was the daily cycle low. The Miners have since been contained by the declining 10 day MA. A close above both the 10 day MA and 50 day MA can be used as a buy signal and we will then label day 30 as the DCL, using the 50 day MA as the stop. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.
Long GDXJ and EQX
Posted on February 5, 2022
The Miners printed its lowest point on day 30, placing them in their timing band for a DCL.
The Miners formed a swing low on Monday then broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to signal that day 30 was the daily cycle low. The Miners have since been contained by the declining 10 day MA. A close above both the 10 day MA and 50 day MA can be used as a buy signal and we will then label day 30 as the DCL, using the 50 day MA as the stop. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.
Long GDXJ and EQX
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Currency Battle
Both the Euro and the dollar are fighting to go lower.
The dollar is overdue for its yearly cycle decline. A break below the 94.50 level would create a lower low, indicating a failed daily cycle and potentially sending the dollar into its overdue yearly cycle decline.
The Euro is overdue to begin its yearly cycle advance. A break above the 1.15 level will create a higher high, signaling the start of the Euro’s yearly cycle advance. The Euro is currently forming a bearish reversal just below the 1.15 level.
If the Euro succeeds in reversing and regaining control of the currency market, that will the dollar higher — stretching out the dollar’s yearly cycle.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/04/currency-battle/
Both the Euro and the dollar are fighting to go lower.
The dollar is overdue for its yearly cycle decline. A break below the 94.50 level would create a lower low, indicating a failed daily cycle and potentially sending the dollar into its overdue yearly cycle decline.
The Euro is overdue to begin its yearly cycle advance. A break above the 1.15 level will create a higher high, signaling the start of the Euro’s yearly cycle advance. The Euro is currently forming a bearish reversal just below the 1.15 level.
If the Euro succeeds in reversing and regaining control of the currency market, that will the dollar higher — stretching out the dollar’s yearly cycle.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/04/currency-battle/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
My system is flashing bear market alert. I'm staying in cash on my brokerage and roth IRA accounts. Just sold NRGU today for a 56% gain, the year is off to a good start
Well done Brother..... Not an easy market to make money in right now.... I'm still holding long positions based on a confirmed DCL. We shall see where it takes us in the days ahead. The night monkeys might give the market a gap up in the morning, but it's how it closes that will be important.
VXF weekly: Week 11 since the VXF sell signal, and VXF is in an ugly downtrend on the weekly chart. However, I trade the daily charts, but this buy signal is looking weak. We shall have to wait and see if this was an ICL.
Nothing wrong with being in cash right now.
Long - VXF, GDXJ, and EQX
Attachments
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robo
Well-known member
Cycles daily chart:
Market Consolidation
We discussed on Tuesday that the drop into the day 33 DCL caused the 10 day MA to drop sharply. And there was is a good possibility that stocks will need to consolidate between the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher.
Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and now appear to consolidating between the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. The daily cycle will not likely gain traction until the 10 day MA turns higher and stocks close above the 50 day MA. The converging 200 day MA and 10 day MA can be used as the stop.
Market Consolidation
We discussed on Tuesday that the drop into the day 33 DCL caused the 10 day MA to drop sharply. And there was is a good possibility that stocks will need to consolidate between the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher.
Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and now appear to consolidating between the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. The daily cycle will not likely gain traction until the 10 day MA turns higher and stocks close above the 50 day MA. The converging 200 day MA and 10 day MA can be used as the stop.
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: To early to tell just yet. A BT of the 10 sma is normal after a huge move up like this one. SPY was very stretched above the 10 sma. That is why I'm trading the S Fund. The C Fund remains an overvalued Pig in my opinion, and some are rotating out of large cap growth stocks. I'm not sure what folks here are using for buy and sell signals, but mine over all is mechanical based on the data. That doesn't mean I will not have losers, but the odds for a winner are much higher. Four up green candles (SPY chart), with gaps left behind, and tagging the Fib 61.8% level in 4 days "IS NOT" a TIME to start getting that feeling. You know... The FOMO feeling..... However, we do have a confirmed DCL so I take the trades.... WIN, LOSE, or DRAW I trade my system. Trades in a TSP account are a whole different animal and I'm unsure how it will play out. We shall see.....
We could still test the lows in the days ahead. I like trading these big swings, but much you can do with a TSP account, but I'm still testing it out. I'm doing lots of trading in other accounts both ways.
I will be staying away from the C Fund and my S Fund trade is based on a move back up to the 50 dma for the S Fund. This is based on we currently are very close or completed an ICL. The daily cycle is confirmed and we shall see how it goes. It could still fail. As I mentioned earlier, it's still to early to tell how this will play out, and I could still get whipsawed. I'm up at Vanguard the last few weeks, but my TSP tracker account is down.
Long - VXF, GDXJ, and EQX : Trading SSO and SDS in other accounts....
Take Care!
Bottom Line: Bull trap! For some I sure agree Brother.........
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robo
Well-known member
VXF daily: Back testing the 10 sma (red solid line) is currently in play..... The move up for VXF was halted at the 20 ema, ( purple dashed line) but the 38.2% Fib level still hasn't been tagged. Traders continue to love the Big Caps, but just a few Pigs are holding it up. As folks rotate away from these Pigs some will move into value stocks which should help move VXF up for a tag of the 50 sma. (orange solid line) That is "IF" the ICL is in and this first daily cycle performs well. A failed daily cycle, and we could be headed lower to test the lows or even an undercut of the lows. I would tell you which one for sure, but my Magic 8 Ball is broken. I trade based on what is happening in real-time not what I think will happen. I remain on a hold long positions, but that doesn't mean I will not get whipsawed. I just trade my signals with no Bias, based on a set of odds, that I use after looking over my tools. With all that said, the house still wins sometime. But when I like the odds I tell the dealer to hit me. I'm playing Blackjack and my tools are like counting cards. That doesn't mean your hand can't go bust!
Waiting to see how this plays out. I move in and out of VXF at Vanguard whenever I want to during the trading day so my average share price is much lower then my TSP average share price which is currently in the S Fund. Why the S Fund? Because it is the most undervalued between the two. This is NOT the same market that folks traded in last year.
Long VXF, GDXJ, EQX
2 hours of trading left..... We shall see how we close.
Waiting to see how this plays out. I move in and out of VXF at Vanguard whenever I want to during the trading day so my average share price is much lower then my TSP average share price which is currently in the S Fund. Why the S Fund? Because it is the most undervalued between the two. This is NOT the same market that folks traded in last year.
Long VXF, GDXJ, EQX
2 hours of trading left..... We shall see how we close.
Attachments
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
The Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index is curling up
The Nasdaq's internal momentum is trying to recover
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-02-03 at 07:30:00 CST
The Summation Index is based on work pioneered by Sherman and Marian McClellan and is carried on by their son Tom. It is a longer-term look at the momentum of the underlying breadth of the market, adding each day's McClellan Oscillator reading to the day before. Momentum is positive when it is above zero; below zero, it is negative. It also works as an overbought/oversold indicator when it pushes above +500 or below -1000.
With many overbought/oversold, the catch is that one never really knows how low is low until after the fact. As a result, buying in at the first sign of a slightly oversold condition can result in losses as the market continues to plummet to its ultimate bottom. An alternate approach is waiting for signs of a reversal of an oversold condition before jumping in. That is the approach Jay took for this test.
The red dots in the chart below highlight those days when the NASDAQ McClellan Summation index crossed back above a reading of -1200. You can run this test in our Backtest Engine.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-e5ead234c6-1271291994
The Nasdaq's internal momentum is trying to recover
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-02-03 at 07:30:00 CST
The Summation Index is based on work pioneered by Sherman and Marian McClellan and is carried on by their son Tom. It is a longer-term look at the momentum of the underlying breadth of the market, adding each day's McClellan Oscillator reading to the day before. Momentum is positive when it is above zero; below zero, it is negative. It also works as an overbought/oversold indicator when it pushes above +500 or below -1000.
With many overbought/oversold, the catch is that one never really knows how low is low until after the fact. As a result, buying in at the first sign of a slightly oversold condition can result in losses as the market continues to plummet to its ultimate bottom. An alternate approach is waiting for signs of a reversal of an oversold condition before jumping in. That is the approach Jay took for this test.
The red dots in the chart below highlight those days when the NASDAQ McClellan Summation index crossed back above a reading of -1200. You can run this test in our Backtest Engine.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-e5ead234c6-1271291994
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
"The market needs time to consolidate the recent bounce before it makes another big move."
Consider Taking the Year Off from Trading
Jeff Clark | Feb 3, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read
The easy money has already been made for the current bounce in the stock market.
Any further gains from here are going to be a hard fight…
The Volatility Index (VIX) generated its first buy signal of the year last Thursday… and stocks have rocketed straight up since then.
The S&P 500 traded yesterday about 300 points higher than where it opened on Friday. That’s a 300-point gain (roughly 7%) in just four trading days.
Heck, given the action so far this year, many traders would probably be happy to lock in that profit, close their books, and take the rest of the year off…
While there’s still a bit more upside remaining for this bounce, it looks like we’re now setting up for a few weeks of choppy, back-and-forth action.
Just take a look at the updated S&P 500 chart…
We had a chance to buy into oversold conditions last week, when technical conditions were stretched to the downside and investor sentiment (a contrary indicator) was leaning quite bearish.
Traders who had the courage to do that are sitting on nice profits today.
But buying stocks today – after the market has already bounced well off the lows – is a bit more challenging.
The market needs time to consolidate the recent bounce before it makes another big move.
Best regards and good trading,
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/consider-taking-the-year-off-from-trading/
Consider Taking the Year Off from Trading
Jeff Clark | Feb 3, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read
The easy money has already been made for the current bounce in the stock market.
Any further gains from here are going to be a hard fight…
The Volatility Index (VIX) generated its first buy signal of the year last Thursday… and stocks have rocketed straight up since then.
The S&P 500 traded yesterday about 300 points higher than where it opened on Friday. That’s a 300-point gain (roughly 7%) in just four trading days.
Heck, given the action so far this year, many traders would probably be happy to lock in that profit, close their books, and take the rest of the year off…
While there’s still a bit more upside remaining for this bounce, it looks like we’re now setting up for a few weeks of choppy, back-and-forth action.
Just take a look at the updated S&P 500 chart…
We had a chance to buy into oversold conditions last week, when technical conditions were stretched to the downside and investor sentiment (a contrary indicator) was leaning quite bearish.
Traders who had the courage to do that are sitting on nice profits today.
But buying stocks today – after the market has already bounced well off the lows – is a bit more challenging.
The market needs time to consolidate the recent bounce before it makes another big move.
Best regards and good trading,
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/consider-taking-the-year-off-from-trading/
