I'm sure starting this year out poorly with my TSP funds. I added some more stock positions Friday using my Scottrade accounts. My TSP account is fairly small now. When I retired I moved much of my money to Scottrade. I have always hated the two moves a month early in the morning that TSP has, but I'm not an investor I'm a trader. I normally leave my TSP funds in the G Fund and only move into stocks when I'm seeing extremes....I was way to early this time, but that's the risk we take. I like the G Fund for some of my retirement money, but like I said I will move into stocks if I think we are close to a ST bounce....
I'm flat GDXJ and waiting to go long again. I trade GDXJ based on what GLD is doing. The miners will follow most of the time.
GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
A comment from Kaplan:
This is update #2145 for Friday afternoon, January 8, 2016.
The media are full of stories about how we are allegedly in a “new bear market” for U.S. equities. We are certainly in a bear market, but there is nothing new about it. Most U.S. equity indices had topped out in either May or June 2015. Some the fang-heavy indices were able to achieve new peaks in the fourth quarter of 2015. Meanwhile, thousands of small-cap U.S. shares which normally gain roughly 4% for each 3% rise in the S&P 500 had been underperforming since the first week of March 2014 and are mostly down more than 10% from their highs of that month which was almost two years ago. The media only recognize a trend when it has already accelerated and is usually ready for a short-term move the opposite way, and they also misunderstand how bear markets progress. The biggest losses are almost always in the final months rather than in the early stages. There will continue to be periodic corrections as is characteristic of most bear markets, but recent fears of a crash or collapse during the next several months are almost certainly unfounded. Most downtrends in the early stages of bear markets don’t result in losses of 30%, 40%, or 50%. Such outsized declines usually happen at the very end when investors panic and conclude that the stock market will take years to recover. While there will likely be above-average volatility throughout 2016, the year will probably end with a moderate double-digit total loss for most U.S. equity indices. The biggest percentage declines will likely happen in 2017, and then 2018 will probably experience huge moves in both directions as is typical of a multi-decade bottoming pattern for any sector.
I always ask myself what no one is expecting, which is therefore most likely to occur. If you look at
Yahoo Finance - Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News as I cite frequently in the upcoming links, most analysts are negative on U.S. equity indices in the short run while being bullish for 2016 overall. Some are predicting a stock-market crash, as others expect a gradual recovery. Therefore, all of them will be wrong. We won’t have a crash, we won’t have gains for 2016, and in fact the year will probably end with moderate double-digit losses for most U.S. equity indices. This will punish the huge number who remain long, while also punishing those who are long while hedging with out-of-the-money puts which will mostly expire. As long as a moderate total loss for 2016 remains a highly unpopular expectation, it will continue to be the most likely one. If many start to agree with me then I will probably have to change my outlook.
You would think that at least one analyst would be asking whether we could be in a protracted bear market, and if we are, then when it is likely to end and how severe it might become. Those are essential questions which no one is considering, as everyone is obsessed with what will happen later in January and automatically assumes that by the end of 2016 we will have either crashed and begun to recover or we will be setting new all-time highs. It would be a lot more useful to know whether the current bear markets for U.S. equity indices will continue until 2017 or 2018, and whether we will or won’t go below the lows of late 2008 and early 2009 to reach the most depressed levels since the mid-1980s. If you see a single article about this topic anywhere, please let me know. Usually whatever is most important is most ignored by the mainstream financial media.
Whenever the financial markets behave a certain way, even for a brief time period, the financial media suddenly feature commentary about why the latest activity “was inevitable” while just as suddenly removing or burying analyses which had been expecting the opposite behavior. No one who was reading any mainstream financial web site should forget that almost all of the stories about U.S. equities were positive while almost all of the coverage of precious metals had been negative as recently as one week ago. Some of the recent bearish commentary regarding U.S. equity indices has been interesting, even if I don’t necessarily agree with many of the statements or conclusions. I have spoken personally with Marc Faber and I always respect his ideas even though I rarely concur with most of what he is saying:
• Marc Faber: Stocks Have Been Falling for Over a Year–and It’s Going to Get Worse
Faber: Stocks have been falling for over a year
An organization called ETH Zürich in Switzerland publishes a useful essay on the first day of each month, with the current monograph explaining how many global commodities are in what they call a “negative bubble” driven almost entirely by emotions and which will be followed by powerful rallies for these assets. Click on the topmost “synthesis report”:
• Financial Crisis Observatory
Financial Crisis Observatory
It is fascinating to observe the divergences of opinion which often occur when surprises happen in the financial markets. On Finance.Yahoo.com they are featuring Mohamed El-Erian who points out that central banks have little power to calm global financial markets:
• Mohamed El-Erian: This Dwarfs Worries About China
Mohamed El-Erian: THIS dwarfs worries about China - Yahoo Finance
Dennis Gartman has turned negative toward U.S. equity indices, perhaps signaling a sharp short-term upward bounce which all bear markets will periodically experience whenever negativity becomes pervasive–although if Gartman were talking about the end of 2016 (which he emphatically is not) rather than the next several weeks then I would agree with his forecast:
• Dennis Gartman Sees Stocks Dropping Another 10%-15%
Dennis Gartman sees stocks dropping another 10%-15% - Yahoo Finance
The usual bulls are mostly just as bullish now as they had been a week ago, as it will require perhaps two years for most of them to become gloomy. They continue to ignore the warnings of small-cap weakness since March 2014, lower highs for most U.S. indices since the second quarter of 2015, the diminishing number of new 52-week highs, and other typical warning signs in the early stages of any severe bear market:
• Jeremy Siegel: S&P Will See 10% Upside by Year-End
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeremy-siegel-p-see-10-200000305.html
The following analysis supports the idea of a sharp short-term bounce for U.S. equity indices which I think has become increasingly likely, and will be essential to observe to see how commodity-related and emerging-market assets are behaving in 2016 during periods of above-average volatility:
• Why This Week’s Market Meltdown Could Be a Big Fat Buy Signal
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...down-could-be-a-big-fat-buy-signal-2016-01-08
http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
