robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: There are times one should just watch the show.....
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
SPY daily: There are times one should just watch the show.....
robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
Jesse Felder@jessefelder·22h'U.S. consumer sentiment declined further in early February to a fresh decade low as views about personal finances deteriorated due to intensifying inflation concerns.'
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles...-low-on-inflation?srnd=premium&sref=qpbhckVU…
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles...-low-on-inflation?srnd=premium&sref=qpbhckVU…
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robo
Well-known member
Some reasons the Market Might be selling off.....
https://mailchi.mp/felder/as-goes-january?mc_cid=c5604bf80e&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
https://mailchi.mp/felder/as-goes-january?mc_cid=c5604bf80e&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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robo
Well-known member
SPY daily and the 1229 to 1932 stock market charts:
For the record: I have NO IDEA how this will play out next week..... We have a failed daily cycle and an ICL still coming our way. The SPY/SPX was unable to close above the 61.8% Fib level as sellers came in and sold shares before the weekend.
(See comments above- We have a left translated daily cycle formation and a continuation of the intermediate cycle in play)
Long: GDXJ and EQX - I sold 1/2 of my position before the close on Friday. A really nice move up Friday. I'm not an Investor in this sector..... I just like to trade the miners, and the move up Friday jumped over the 61.8% Fib level. I think we are probably headed much higher, but I reduced my position for risk management reasons. My position was getting a tad to big after the rip up on Friday. I'm also sometimes trading JNUG during the trading day and that was the case on Friday. Now, will the GDXJ gap fill around $38.00ish? I don't know and that is why I sold my JNUG and sold 1/2 of my GDXJ before the close after a nice rip up. It really doesn't matter as last week was a very good week for me trading the miners.
For the record: I have NO IDEA how this will play out next week..... We have a failed daily cycle and an ICL still coming our way. The SPY/SPX was unable to close above the 61.8% Fib level as sellers came in and sold shares before the weekend.
(See comments above- We have a left translated daily cycle formation and a continuation of the intermediate cycle in play)
Long: GDXJ and EQX - I sold 1/2 of my position before the close on Friday. A really nice move up Friday. I'm not an Investor in this sector..... I just like to trade the miners, and the move up Friday jumped over the 61.8% Fib level. I think we are probably headed much higher, but I reduced my position for risk management reasons. My position was getting a tad to big after the rip up on Friday. I'm also sometimes trading JNUG during the trading day and that was the case on Friday. Now, will the GDXJ gap fill around $38.00ish? I don't know and that is why I sold my JNUG and sold 1/2 of my GDXJ before the close after a nice rip up. It really doesn't matter as last week was a very good week for me trading the miners.
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robo
Well-known member
SPY Daily cycle data: Charts and Cycles can help you understand what happened in the past, but NOTHING can predict the future of the short-term moves for the stock market. However, some tools can improve your odds for placing trades if you are using proper risk management and not gambling. My trading system sure got whipsawed, but I had a very good week overall.
Stocks
Stocks lost the 10 day MA on Thursday and then lost the 200 day MA on Friday.
With a peak on day 7, losing the 200 day MA on Friday sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation and a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/12/the-2-12-22-weekend-report-preview/
Stocks
Stocks lost the 10 day MA on Thursday and then lost the 200 day MA on Friday.
With a peak on day 7, losing the 200 day MA on Friday sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation and a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/12/the-2-12-22-weekend-report-preview/
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robo
Well-known member
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robo
Well-known member
Miner Smackdown
The Miners got smacked down on Thursday.
The Miners formed a swing high on Thursday. They failed to make a higher high and now have closed below the 50 day MA. A peak on day 8 sets up the Miners for a left translated daily cycle formation which signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/10/miner-smackdown-2/
The Miners got smacked down on Thursday.
The Miners formed a swing high on Thursday. They failed to make a higher high and now have closed below the 50 day MA. A peak on day 8 sets up the Miners for a left translated daily cycle formation which signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/10/miner-smackdown-2/
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robo
Well-known member
What happens when interest rates rise for 7 straight weeks
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert Published: 2022-02-10 at 07:30:00 CST
2-year yields have risen for 7 straight weeks
The 2-year Treasury note yield has increased for 7 consecutive weeks.
Dean assessed the outlook for stocks, bonds, and commodities after similar runs, screening out repeats by requiring the count to reset to zero before triggering an additional signal. This is the longest streak in several years.
This signal has triggered 25 other times over the past 45 years. Only 5 of them coincided with a significant peak in the 2-year yield. S&P 500 performance and win rates show somewhat tepid results on short to medium-term time frames.
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert Published: 2022-02-10 at 07:30:00 CST
2-year yields have risen for 7 straight weeks
The 2-year Treasury note yield has increased for 7 consecutive weeks.
Dean assessed the outlook for stocks, bonds, and commodities after similar runs, screening out repeats by requiring the count to reset to zero before triggering an additional signal. This is the longest streak in several years.
This signal has triggered 25 other times over the past 45 years. Only 5 of them coincided with a significant peak in the 2-year yield. S&P 500 performance and win rates show somewhat tepid results on short to medium-term time frames.
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robo
Well-known member
Top Dollar For Top Dollar
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
February 2022
Why is it so hard to accept that speculative bubbles can burst? Interest rates were driven to zero for a decade. Yield-starved investors chased stocks to valuations beyond the 1929 and 2000 extremes. That speculation front-loaded more than a decade of future market gains into the present. Those gains are now behind us, embedded in breathtaking multiples. If history is any guide, a collapse in valuations is likely to return those gains to the future.
The process of losing speculative gains and recovering them over time is what I’ve often called a “long, interesting trip to nowhere.” It bears repeating that the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bills from 1929-1947, 1966-1985, and 2000-2013. 50 years out of an 84-year period. When the investment horizon begins at extreme valuations, and doesn’t end at the same extremes, the retreat in valuations acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would otherwise be provided by dividends and growth in fundamentals.
There is no birthright to ever-rising valuations, particularly given that market internals, fiscal subsidies, and the Federal Reserve’s latitude for recklessness have all turned against this speculative bubble. The record stock prices that investors observe here are the product of a) record valuation multiples that have been inflated by a decade of zero interest rate policy and resulting speculation by yield-starved investors, times; b) record earnings that embed distorted profit margins inflated by trillions of dollars of temporary deficit spending.
Investors are paying top dollar for top dollar.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220210/
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
February 2022
Why is it so hard to accept that speculative bubbles can burst? Interest rates were driven to zero for a decade. Yield-starved investors chased stocks to valuations beyond the 1929 and 2000 extremes. That speculation front-loaded more than a decade of future market gains into the present. Those gains are now behind us, embedded in breathtaking multiples. If history is any guide, a collapse in valuations is likely to return those gains to the future.
The process of losing speculative gains and recovering them over time is what I’ve often called a “long, interesting trip to nowhere.” It bears repeating that the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bills from 1929-1947, 1966-1985, and 2000-2013. 50 years out of an 84-year period. When the investment horizon begins at extreme valuations, and doesn’t end at the same extremes, the retreat in valuations acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would otherwise be provided by dividends and growth in fundamentals.
There is no birthright to ever-rising valuations, particularly given that market internals, fiscal subsidies, and the Federal Reserve’s latitude for recklessness have all turned against this speculative bubble. The record stock prices that investors observe here are the product of a) record valuation multiples that have been inflated by a decade of zero interest rate policy and resulting speculation by yield-starved investors, times; b) record earnings that embed distorted profit margins inflated by trillions of dollars of temporary deficit spending.
Investors are paying top dollar for top dollar.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220210/
robo
Well-known member
Turning out to be a very solid DCL Brother. Another go at the 50 dma be up next..... Today was day 12 according to the cycle dudes and we be testing the 458.12 retracement high.
Bottom Line: The move up continues for the SPY
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robo
Well-known member
Gold update: Nearing 1835 resistance. Will it breakout this time?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXsoQLFX8d0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXsoQLFX8d0
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robo
Well-known member
A Bullish tweet for the Bulls: The melt-up comments are being tweeted again. Sounds good to me.
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
4h
The rocket is ready to leave the launch pad.The melt-up is getting underway.Investors are about to discover what a real melt-up looks & feels like. S&P to 6000,DJIA to 45,000,Nasdaq to 20,000 & RUT to 3,000 in coming weeks & months.Growth & value,large & small cap will all play.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
4h
The rocket is ready to leave the launch pad.The melt-up is getting underway.Investors are about to discover what a real melt-up looks & feels like. S&P to 6000,DJIA to 45,000,Nasdaq to 20,000 & RUT to 3,000 in coming weeks & months.Growth & value,large & small cap will all play.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
