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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Worried Wilson
Mike Wilson remains more focused on what growth is going to do rather than interest rates, and believes investors are still too optimistic, particularly as it relates to consumption. Exacerbating that risk is the fact that inventories are now rising rapidly, with consumer spending levels at risk. He’s doubling down on long defensives vs. cyclicals, while also recommending defensives over inflation plays, and low levered companies over highly levered ones.
https://themarketear.com/
Mike Wilson remains more focused on what growth is going to do rather than interest rates, and believes investors are still too optimistic, particularly as it relates to consumption. Exacerbating that risk is the fact that inventories are now rising rapidly, with consumer spending levels at risk. He’s doubling down on long defensives vs. cyclicals, while also recommending defensives over inflation plays, and low levered companies over highly levered ones.
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Ready for the big 2%?
US 10 year has not closed up here since May 2019. Let's see if we can push through the 2%, if nothing else just to print the big one. The gap between US 10 year and NASDAQ is getting very wide here...
https://themarketear.com/
US 10 year has not closed up here since May 2019. Let's see if we can push through the 2%, if nothing else just to print the big one. The gap between US 10 year and NASDAQ is getting very wide here...
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Daily cycle: Looks good so far.....
Market Consolidation Update
by likesmoneystudies
We discussed last week that the market probably needed to consolidate between the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher.
Stocks closed higher on Tuesday turning the 10 day MA. higher. Now that the 10 day MA is turning higher, we are waiting on close above the 50 day MA so the daily cycle advance can gain some traction.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/08/market-consolidation-update/
Market Consolidation Update
by likesmoneystudies
We discussed last week that the market probably needed to consolidate between the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher.
Stocks closed higher on Tuesday turning the 10 day MA. higher. Now that the 10 day MA is turning higher, we are waiting on close above the 50 day MA so the daily cycle advance can gain some traction.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/08/market-consolidation-update/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
VXF daily: Testing the 20 ema.... Still unable to move back up and tag the Fib 38.2% level. SO NO BEEF! I'm only going to be trading VXF at Vanguard as I wait to see how this Daily Cycle plays out. I think the ICL is in, but I don't take lots of risk these days. And when I do it's for a ST play after a confirmed DCL is in. We have that, but I just don't like the action. Maybe that is good for the wall of worry....
VIX daily:
Flat VXF after today.
Long GDXJ and TLT..... Short-term trading all kinds of stuff.... Both ways!
VIX daily:
Flat VXF after today.
Long GDXJ and TLT..... Short-term trading all kinds of stuff.... Both ways!
Attachments
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
LOL..... It is indeed..... Lots of cash in my Vanguard account so thought I would try some TLT. Kaplan sure likes it..... We shall see how it plays out.
TLT has become very unpopular as investors don't trust a forty-year bull market.
One of my very first investments was purchasing long-dated U.S. Treasuries in 1981. At that time there was a nearly unanimous consensus that U.S. Treasury yields would keep climbing indefinitely due to permanently high inflation and soaring budget deficits. Each year, often more than twice per year even in the early 1980s, there was a proclamation that the bull market for the 30-year U.S. Treasury had ended, and we have continued to experience this gloom and doom each year since then including right now. On Friday, February 4, 2022, TLT dropped to 138.78 at 10:52:28 a.m. Eastern Time. I made my most frequent purchases of TLT on Friday since it had been even more depressed during the late winter and early spring of 2021. The longest-tenured writer at Barron's, Randall W. Forsyth, penned a bullish column about long-dated U.S. Treasuries which is the lead article in this week's print edition and can be found below:
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-real-secret-to-investing-is-that.html
Vanguard account: Long GDXJ and TLT
Due for a bounce with a couple of overhead gaps, but a bold move.
robo
Well-known member
Miner Buy Signal
On Saturday we discussed that we were looking for a potential buy signal for the Miners. The Miners delivered that buy signal on Monday.
The Miners printed their l lowest point on day 30, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. We were looking for a close above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to use as our buy signal to indicate that day 30 was the daily cycle low.
The next obvious area of resistance will be the declining 200 day MA. We will use a close above the 200 day MA as a place to add.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/07/miner-buy-signal-4/
Bottom Line: A move above the 10, and 50 sma on the GDX chart was the important point from the cycle dude. The trend remains up for now..... However, one of the toughest sectors out there to trade.
On Saturday we discussed that we were looking for a potential buy signal for the Miners. The Miners delivered that buy signal on Monday.
The Miners printed their l lowest point on day 30, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. We were looking for a close above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to use as our buy signal to indicate that day 30 was the daily cycle low.
The next obvious area of resistance will be the declining 200 day MA. We will use a close above the 200 day MA as a place to add.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/07/miner-buy-signal-4/
Bottom Line: A move above the 10, and 50 sma on the GDX chart was the important point from the cycle dude. The trend remains up for now..... However, one of the toughest sectors out there to trade.
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Master’ of the land: Drone captures striking images of polar bears turning weather station into Arctic playground
https://twitter.com/i/events/1490722278010765313
https://twitter.com/i/events/1490722278010765313
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
"The correction lows are in" Maybe, and we shall see!
Long VXF
SPY monthly chart:
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
5h
The correction lows are in.They occurred back on Jan 24.I do think the market has a little more downside work to do before resuming the melt-up.I think the downside risk is maybe 2% vs 30-40% upside.Sentiment is very bearish & investors are overly concerned about Fed tightening.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Long VXF
SPY monthly chart:
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
5h
The correction lows are in.They occurred back on Jan 24.I do think the market has a little more downside work to do before resuming the melt-up.I think the downside risk is maybe 2% vs 30-40% upside.Sentiment is very bearish & investors are overly concerned about Fed tightening.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Attachments
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
VXF after the close: Stopped at the 20 ema and so far unable to tag the 38.3 Fib level. Not what you want to see after a new daily cycle. Other indexes are also having trouble.
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
F A I L U R E
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
One of the ways to identify a BEAR MARKET RALLY is when it can't HOLD a .382R...
Quote Tweet
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
6h
Welp, it's like this, the .382R was TESTED and REJECTED at 14165, so unless $NASDAQ can climb over that 14165 resistance, there is nothing left to do but to test the TWIN LOWS at 13850-1
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
F A I L U R E
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
One of the ways to identify a BEAR MARKET RALLY is when it can't HOLD a .382R...
Quote Tweet
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
6h
Welp, it's like this, the .382R was TESTED and REJECTED at 14165, so unless $NASDAQ can climb over that 14165 resistance, there is nothing left to do but to test the TWIN LOWS at 13850-1
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
2h
"I've been doing this 30 years and I've never seen markets like this. This is a molecule crisis. We're out of everything, I don't care if it's oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we're out of it."
Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
·
2h
'All the indications are that the current bull market in stocks isn’t making consumers any happier and that the Fed should do as its mandates provide and prioritize attacking inflation.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1490714343536791557/photo/1
https://bloomberg.com/opinion/artic...-stocks-households?srnd=premium&sref=qpbhckVU
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
@jessefelder
2h
"I've been doing this 30 years and I've never seen markets like this. This is a molecule crisis. We're out of everything, I don't care if it's oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we're out of it."
Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
·
2h
'All the indications are that the current bull market in stocks isn’t making consumers any happier and that the Fed should do as its mandates provide and prioritize attacking inflation.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1490714343536791557/photo/1
https://bloomberg.com/opinion/artic...-stocks-households?srnd=premium&sref=qpbhckVU
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
And SLV is up 2.5% today. That's a pretty big one day move for silver. SLV is now up testing the 50 day EMA, and may be looking to fill that open gap.
No position at the moment.
robo
Well-known member
Ignore the media's attempt to explain the bear market for U.S. large-cap growth shares.
If you believe the media then you have to swallow the fairy tale that earnings are "driving" the market. What drives the market are valuations, not earnings. If profit growth is far out of line with price-earnings ratios in either direction then sooner or later there will be a regression toward the mean. The greatest deviations from the mean will eventually experience the most violent moves toward fair value and beyond. It's like a pendulum: if you pull it far from its equilibrium then it has no choice but to eventually swing sharply the opposite way, even if you pull it even farther away from the center in the short run.
Who is Steve Kaplan:
http://truecontrarian.com/Kaplan.mp4
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
17h
Most investors are either treating 2022 as though it'll be an approximate repeat of 2021 or else they believe that the investing world is totally different than it has ever been in the past. Both of these expectations are seriously flawed. See post https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-success-of-contrarian-strategies.html
My current total as of the close on Friday, February 4, 2022 was long 20.636% and short 42.13%, or almost exactly 1:2, not counting TLT. If the bear market continues for large-cap U.S. growth shares as I expect then I will likely be more long than short before the end of 2022. I list the exact percentages at the bottom of this essay.
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
If you believe the media then you have to swallow the fairy tale that earnings are "driving" the market. What drives the market are valuations, not earnings. If profit growth is far out of line with price-earnings ratios in either direction then sooner or later there will be a regression toward the mean. The greatest deviations from the mean will eventually experience the most violent moves toward fair value and beyond. It's like a pendulum: if you pull it far from its equilibrium then it has no choice but to eventually swing sharply the opposite way, even if you pull it even farther away from the center in the short run.
Who is Steve Kaplan:
http://truecontrarian.com/Kaplan.mp4
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
17h
Most investors are either treating 2022 as though it'll be an approximate repeat of 2021 or else they believe that the investing world is totally different than it has ever been in the past. Both of these expectations are seriously flawed. See post https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-success-of-contrarian-strategies.html
My current total as of the close on Friday, February 4, 2022 was long 20.636% and short 42.13%, or almost exactly 1:2, not counting TLT. If the bear market continues for large-cap U.S. growth shares as I expect then I will likely be more long than short before the end of 2022. I list the exact percentages at the bottom of this essay.
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/