-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Covered nicely in today's video. Market Update: Fib in the Sand #65
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/The...name&utm_medium=email&utm_source=TheNorthCast
robo
Well-known member
ICL? Maybe..... Time will tell.
Bubble update: Human nature never changes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y6phAyxSjs&t=74s
Bubble update: Human nature never changes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y6phAyxSjs&t=74s
robo
Well-known member
IWM daily: WEAK, but a BT of the 10 sma held..... The 50 dma be up next and it's very close to the Fib 50% level...... If we can get there that would be a plus for Da-Bulls!
The Bullish thing for my trend trading tracking system is the index is holding above the 3 ema..... so far.
Bottom Line: The trend remains up and I trade what is happening not what I think will happen.
Long: VXF, GDXJ, EQX..... ST trading other stuff!
The Bullish thing for my trend trading tracking system is the index is holding above the 3 ema..... so far.
Bottom Line: The trend remains up and I trade what is happening not what I think will happen.
Long: VXF, GDXJ, EQX..... ST trading other stuff!
Attachments
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
VXF daily: WEAK! Unable to even get back to the 38.2% Fib level...... We shall see if it's going to be a slow grind higher or we come back and test the lows..... Maybe a lower low. However, I will stay long ( holding my position) since my trading system remains on a hold long positions after the latest buy signal. ( A confirmed DCL and the start of a new daily cycle) That doesn't mean it will be a winner overall. So far it is a winner if you bought the bottom as some here hit it perfectly. For those here at TSP that did, well done! Still, things looking weak overall.
Long- VXF, GDXJ, and EQX
Long- VXF, GDXJ, and EQX
Attachments
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
Fund flows..... Some continue to sell the SPY as we bounce and get close to the next Fib Level. Stopped at the 61.8% fib level for now. We shall see how we close.
Most Recent Flows DataData available since 01/29/1993 Flows for 01/26/2022 - 02/01/2022
https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool
SPY daily: Getting close to the 61.8% fib level. Depending on who you ask some think this bounce is about over, and others are saying buy, buy, buy!
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
21h
The melt-up is underway. As I have said previously, I expect it to be a broad,steep rally with both growth & value & large & small cap playing. Semis, FAANGs, industrials, airlines, autos, commodities incl copper & steel,miners, financials & even small cap tech will perform well.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
Say, is there a pattern here? First Rachel Madcow, Now Zucker... somebody trying to get out of Dodge before the SHTF ???
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics/status/1488913038509965315?cxt=HHwWhoCsnaOh16kpAAAA
I like Sentiment Trader for many of the indicators I use, but it's a paid service so unable to post here.
SentimenTrader https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/
Most Recent Flows DataData available since 01/29/1993 Flows for 01/26/2022 - 02/01/2022
https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool
SPY daily: Getting close to the 61.8% fib level. Depending on who you ask some think this bounce is about over, and others are saying buy, buy, buy!
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
21h
The melt-up is underway. As I have said previously, I expect it to be a broad,steep rally with both growth & value & large & small cap playing. Semis, FAANGs, industrials, airlines, autos, commodities incl copper & steel,miners, financials & even small cap tech will perform well.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
Say, is there a pattern here? First Rachel Madcow, Now Zucker... somebody trying to get out of Dodge before the SHTF ???
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics/status/1488913038509965315?cxt=HHwWhoCsnaOh16kpAAAA
I like Sentiment Trader for many of the indicators I use, but it's a paid service so unable to post here.
SentimenTrader https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/
Attachments
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
The only time I’m really tracking volume is when I’m looking for a DCL or an ICL. We sometimes see extremes when we see capitulation (large down volume) or at the start of a new IC ( large up volume ). At least that is why I’m tracking it.
As for the selling, the insiders in many sectors continue to sell at record rates. So yes there is plenty of selling going on. They sell their stocks as they do buy backs with share holder funds. Buy backs should be stopped in my opinion, but that will never happen.
Last edited:
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Really like the TSI on your charts plus use of VXF. Using VXF to study volume since DWCPF does not provide any volume data. Thank you Robo. Definitely learning a lot from you!
I noticed volume dropping last two days of January while price was going up. I think I read somewhere that this can signify people selling the rally, but not really sure how that works.
I noticed volume dropping last two days of January while price was going up. I think I read somewhere that this can signify people selling the rally, but not really sure how that works.
robo
Well-known member
Glad it helped you out. A few more tools that you can add to your trading tool box. Trading tools can help you improve your odds when taking a new position. I track cycles and Fib's for Risk Management - Position size and adding additional shares.
In my opinion this is going to be a tough market to trade this year. It still looks like rallies are being sold.
rangerray
Member
Great post! I learned a lot with those links.
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: I sure don't like the action...... This could turn out to be a failed daily cycle and we head back down to make a lower low...... Watching for now as this buy signal just might get whipsawed.
Long GDXJ, EQX, and VXF
VXF and VTI daily charts: On a new daily cycle....
Long GDXJ, EQX, and VXF
VXF and VTI daily charts: On a new daily cycle....
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Interest costs alone are projected to surpass 5 trillion [U.S. dollars] over the next 10 years and will amount to nearly half of all federal revenue by 2051, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, an organization focused on raising awareness to the fiscal challenge.
--Matt Egan, "America's National Debt Surpasses 30 Trillion [U.S. Dollars] for the First Time", cnn.com, February 1, 2022.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/01/economy/national-debt-30-trillion/index.html
U.S. housing prices soared in 2021--but may be starting what I expect will be a dramatic downtrend averaging about half in the U.S. and even greater losses in many other countries to restore fair value.
For at least several hundred years (see Herengracht) global housing prices have traded near three times the average household income in any neighborhood, so recent ratios of seven to eleven times average household income are not going to last very long:
Kaplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
14h
Instead of trying to guess what the market will do each day, week, or month, gradually accumulate anything which is esp. undervalued realizing that its bottom is unknowable, & gradually sell anything which is at a rare overpricing w/ the understanding that u can't guess its top
https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
--Matt Egan, "America's National Debt Surpasses 30 Trillion [U.S. Dollars] for the First Time", cnn.com, February 1, 2022.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/01/economy/national-debt-30-trillion/index.html
U.S. housing prices soared in 2021--but may be starting what I expect will be a dramatic downtrend averaging about half in the U.S. and even greater losses in many other countries to restore fair value.
For at least several hundred years (see Herengracht) global housing prices have traded near three times the average household income in any neighborhood, so recent ratios of seven to eleven times average household income are not going to last very long:
Kaplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
14h
Instead of trying to guess what the market will do each day, week, or month, gradually accumulate anything which is esp. undervalued realizing that its bottom is unknowable, & gradually sell anything which is at a rare overpricing w/ the understanding that u can't guess its top
https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Last edited:
robo
Well-known member
The end of short-term selling for the world's most important index
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-02-02 at 07:30:00 CST
Finally, a short-term break for stocks
Buyers just couldn't catch a break. Finally, on Monday, the S&P 500 index closed above its 10-day average for the first time in 17 consecutive sessions.
Dean assessed the outlook for the S&P 500 when the index closes above its 10-day average after trading below the average for 17 consecutive days or more. He further filtered the signals to look for times when stocks were not too far removed from a new high at the time.
This signal triggered 20 other times over the past 84 years.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-fe40e18365-1271291994
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-02-02 at 07:30:00 CST
Finally, a short-term break for stocks
Buyers just couldn't catch a break. Finally, on Monday, the S&P 500 index closed above its 10-day average for the first time in 17 consecutive sessions.
Dean assessed the outlook for the S&P 500 when the index closes above its 10-day average after trading below the average for 17 consecutive days or more. He further filtered the signals to look for times when stocks were not too far removed from a new high at the time.
This signal triggered 20 other times over the past 84 years.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-fe40e18365-1271291994
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Has the Dollar Entered the Death Zone?
Imre Gams | Feb 2, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read
Mountain climbers refer to the “death zone” as any altitude above the point where there isn’t enough oxygen to sustain human life.
This level typically comes in around 26,000 feet. So, if a climber stays at that altitude too long…
Well, it’s not called the death zone for nothing…
Financial markets aren’t all that different.
Many markets have their own death zones – price levels where there’s been a historically high chance of a trend reversal.
And right now, the U.S. dollar is trading just inside its death zone.
And while this might be bad for dollar bulls, it’s likely going to be good for assets that move counter to the dollar, such as gold, silver, and other commodities.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/has-the-dollar-entered-the-death-zone/
Another beneficiary of a weaker dollar would be foreign currencies that are reliant on commodity exports.
Imre Gams | Feb 2, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read
Mountain climbers refer to the “death zone” as any altitude above the point where there isn’t enough oxygen to sustain human life.
This level typically comes in around 26,000 feet. So, if a climber stays at that altitude too long…
Well, it’s not called the death zone for nothing…
Financial markets aren’t all that different.
Many markets have their own death zones – price levels where there’s been a historically high chance of a trend reversal.
And right now, the U.S. dollar is trading just inside its death zone.
And while this might be bad for dollar bulls, it’s likely going to be good for assets that move counter to the dollar, such as gold, silver, and other commodities.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/has-the-dollar-entered-the-death-zone/
Another beneficiary of a weaker dollar would be foreign currencies that are reliant on commodity exports.
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Daily Cycle Expectations
Stocks closed convincingly above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Monday. They delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday, further confirming that day 33 was the DCL.
Stocks should break above the declining trend line as they rally out of their daily cycle low. However, the drop into the day 33 DCL caused the 10 day MA to drop sharply. There is a good possibility that stocks will need to consolidate between the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher. The daily cycle will not likely gain traction until the 10 day MA turns higher and stocks close above the 50 day MA.
Stocks closed convincingly above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Monday. They delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday, further confirming that day 33 was the DCL.
Stocks should break above the declining trend line as they rally out of their daily cycle low. However, the drop into the day 33 DCL caused the 10 day MA to drop sharply. There is a good possibility that stocks will need to consolidate between the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher. The daily cycle will not likely gain traction until the 10 day MA turns higher and stocks close above the 50 day MA.
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Go ahead and make my day: I would like to see lots of rate hikes.......
S&P500 price and EPS during the 2004-2006 hiking cycle
https://themarketear.com/
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
9h
Strip out all the government handouts, and real personal income has all but stagnated since the pandemic started. With the handouts, incomes are up 3.3%. The U.S. economy's 'vitality' rests on the policy stimulus that is now in the rear-view mirror.
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
9h
This claim from the Fed on how great the economy is doing compared to late 2015 is nutty -- what would things look like today absent an 11% deficit-to-GDP ratio (2.8% then) and a $9 trillion Fed balance sheet (2x the size back then)?
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
S&P500 price and EPS during the 2004-2006 hiking cycle
https://themarketear.com/
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
9h
Strip out all the government handouts, and real personal income has all but stagnated since the pandemic started. With the handouts, incomes are up 3.3%. The U.S. economy's 'vitality' rests on the policy stimulus that is now in the rear-view mirror.
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
9h
This claim from the Fed on how great the economy is doing compared to late 2015 is nutty -- what would things look like today absent an 11% deficit-to-GDP ratio (2.8% then) and a $9 trillion Fed balance sheet (2x the size back then)?
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Bear market rallies can be furious
During the first phase of the dot.com correction, we saw three huge bear market rallies ranging between 18-30%, before the entire "thing" imploded later. If this is the top, it sure will frustrate most people and produce huge p/l pain, both ways.
Did FOMO finally get triggered by the dip?
First serious downtick in "cash on the sidelines" Money Market funds. Chart shows cumulative fund flows across assets. Caning down Wall Street..
https://themarketear.com/
During the first phase of the dot.com correction, we saw three huge bear market rallies ranging between 18-30%, before the entire "thing" imploded later. If this is the top, it sure will frustrate most people and produce huge p/l pain, both ways.
Did FOMO finally get triggered by the dip?
First serious downtick in "cash on the sidelines" Money Market funds. Chart shows cumulative fund flows across assets. Caning down Wall Street..
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
VXF daily: ( S Fund) So far so good......
Long VXF, GDXJ, EQX
VXF daily: A closer look.....
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
Say, What happened here? This doesn't look like your garden variety "Every month starts with a gap up" to me. They puked in the first 30 min. Most indices are + or - single digits... is that all today? A disgusting unch day to start the month?
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
Long VXF, GDXJ, EQX
VXF daily: A closer look.....
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
2h
Say, What happened here? This doesn't look like your garden variety "Every month starts with a gap up" to me. They puked in the first 30 min. Most indices are + or - single digits... is that all today? A disgusting unch day to start the month?
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
Attachments
Last edited:
