Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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The 1/29/16 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on January 31, 2016

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 43 after a 3 week decline. That placed stocks deep in the daily cycle timing band. The swing low and accelerated declining trend line break signaled a new daily cycle. Friday’s close above the lower daily cycle band delivers final confirmation on a new daily cycle.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/
 
Elites Set to Wipe Out Shorts Before Next Downwave…

By: Clive Maund | Sun, Jan 31, 2016
Originally published January 30th, 2016.

On the 6-month chart for the S&P500 index, we can see how the index finally broke out upside from an intermediate base pattern on Friday, with a big bullish white candle appearing. The large white candle portends a continuation of the rally. First stop should be the resistance shown in the 2000 area, and it may well rise further, as we will see on other charts, with a fairly precise target for the move provided by the chart for the Dow Jones Transports, which we will look at later.

Elites Set to Wipe Out Shorts Before Next Downwave... | Clive Maund | Safehaven.com
 
Welcome to the New Bear Market
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, February 2, 2016

It was a great effort... but it wasn't enough.

The S&P 500 rallied 120 points in the final seven trading days of January. That's a tremendous move in a short period. But it wasn't enough to keep the index from ending the month below its 20-month exponential moving average (EMA).

So as I explained a couple weeks ago, we're officially in a bear market...

Here's an updated look at the long-term chart of the S&P 500...

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
 
The 2/13/16 Weekend Report Preview
Posted on February 13, 2016

A swing low has formed off of the day 17 low. Since 17 days is too early for a daily cycle low, it is quite possible that day 17 was a half cycle low. If Thursday was a half cycle low then any counter-trend rally should not exceed the February 1st high of 1947.20.

There is another possible scenario. It is possible that the 43 day daily cycle low in January, was only a half cycle low, extending cycle decline extend to Thursday. This would mean stretching the daily cycle out to 60 days. The bullish divergence developing on the TSI and the collapsing of new lows support this scenario. And if Friday began a new daily cycle, that would fit align with the timing band of a new intermediate cycle.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/


SevenSentinels ‏@SevenSentinels Feb 12
2:45 IT Trend Intact February 12 Intraday Analysis | SevenSentinels.com - The Most Powerful Trading Concept on Earth. Period. …
 

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Some of the charts I use to trade.

GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

SLV - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


$NAMO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

UWTI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p05166893292&a=445248271

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p19978342179&a=444286189


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p75286166752&a=444287242

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46635069470&a=444286350

Expect Huge Price Swings Next Month
By: Chris Vermeulen | Sat, Feb 20, 2016

This past week was not for the 'faint of heart'. All of the asset classes witnessed wildly volatile moves, which culminated in an 11% move of crude oil. The U.S. equity markets survived a scare on Friday, February 12th, 2016 and moved up sharply. Gold returned as a safe haven for investments. The uncertainty of further rate hikes, by the FED, has turned the U.S. dollar into a range-bound trade.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/40521/expect-huge-price-swings-next-month

http://www.kereport.com/2016/02/20/state-economy/


A small excerpt from Steve Kaplan:

This is update #2150 for Friday late afternoon, February 19, 2016.

Negative interest rates have become such a popular topic of discussion that I have to believe we are set for a period of unexpected increases for long-term bond yields worldwide. As usual, the timing of any news story is often more important than the information itself. If everyone is worried about negative interest rates now, then it might be a serious problem in the future but the market will move in the opposite direction for a sustained period of time during the next year or two. Once everyone is “proven wrong” and changes their minds, they will subsequently be proven right:

Because of negative interest rates in Europe, the European Central Bank is considering the elimination of the 500-euro note because it is tempting to put money in actual cash rather than to hold it in an account which gets no interest and is charged fees. The U.S. still doesn’t generally suffer from negative nominal yields, but no doubt the Fed will have to consider the possibility if we have a severe recession because there is almost no room to cut rates from their current absurdly low levels. The usual excuses about “criminals” and other such nonsense are merely a cover for a much greater concern that money sitting literally in cash is especially unproductive for the economy:

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


Good luck to those trading these markets.

TSP investors enjoy the show...It's going to get better in my opinion!



Quick Look At Futures Positioning
Published: Feb 19 2016 at 02:52 PM CST | 0 Comments
Following is a quick snapshot of the latest futures positioning data from the CFTC. These are positions for the large commercial hedgers that we show in the interactive versions of the charts on the site.

The most notable change was in silver, where hedgers are now holding their most aggressive short positions since 2008. This is not always useful – it gave a bad warning sign in 2010 – but overall tends to be accurate. When commercials are heavily short a commodity in a downtrend, it has most often had difficulty sustaining higher prices, and they’ve been more aggressively shorting silver on each rally attempt over the past few years. As always, this could be misleading but it looks like the risk on silver just went up.

http://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/quick-look-at-futures-positioning


Chart found here.
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels

SevenSentinels ‏@SevenSentinels Feb 19
FINAL: MO: 8/2 REL:NSS HTT U/T 2/6 SS U/T 6/1 BR: -59/301


The 2/19/16 Weekend Report Preview
Posted on February 20, 2016

Since December stocks have been in a daily down trend characterized by lows forming below the lower daily cycle band and peaks occurring below the upper daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in a daily down trend until they can close above the upper daily cycle band. And a close above the upper daily cycle band will also confirm a new intermediate cycle.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/
 

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February 15, 2016
Warning with a Capital "W"

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.


Given our focus on historically-informed, value-conscious, full-cycle investing, I generally don’t place much attention on short-term technical factors or specific patterns of price action. However, the current setup is one of the few exceptions. In a market return/risk classification that is already the most negative we identify, where a sustained period of speculation has given way increasing risk-aversion, the position of the market relative to very widely identified “support” (about the 1820 level on the S&P 500) is of particular note.

Often, well-recognized support levels become places where dip-buyers and swing-traders line up on the buy side, on the assumption that they’ll be rewarded if the market bounces from that support, and that they can quickly cut their losses immediately if the support level is broken. The problem here is that when too many speculators set their stop-loss points at the same level, and valuations are still elevated, there may be neither speculators nor value-conscious investors willing to bid for stock anywhere near those support levels once they break. The resulting gap between eager sellers at a high level and willing buyers at a much lower level is the essential element of market crashes, because every seller requires a buyer.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Warning with a Capital "W" - February 15, 2016





http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/GC.png


http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SI.png


Current Commitments of Traders Charts

http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SP.png
 
Is Extreme Bearish Sentiment A Reason To Buy?

By: Chris Ciovacco | Sat, Feb 20, 2016


When investor sentiment reaches extreme levels, it can be a contrary indicator for the stock market. For example, the highest bullish reading in the history of the American Association Of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey was 75% bulls before the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. To give you a reference point, the average over the life of the AAII survey is 39% bulls. Sentiment readings can also be helpful when they reach extreme levels of skepticism, which is the topic we will explore in more detail below and tie it into the present day.

Is Extreme Bearish Sentiment A Reason To Buy? | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com
 
Why Tom DeMark is predicting an ugly March for the S&P 500

Published: Feb 26, 2016 7:37 a.m. ET

That’s highlighted in his view of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.19% which he sees dropping 8% to 10% from current level to around 1,786. The broad stock-market benchmark could tumble to 1,733, if things get really ugly, he said. His gloomy call was briefly highlighted by MarketWatch’s Victor Reklaitis on Wednesday.

Why Tom DeMark is predicting an ugly March for the S&P 500 - MarketWatch
 
Your Last Chance to Get Out Before the Bear Attacks Again
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, March 1, 2016

There is no such thing as a stealth bear attack.

Grizzlies are not sneaky.

In the wild, bear attacks happen because people either miss or ignore the warning signs. And then, folks don't know what to do once the attack begins.

The same is true for bear attacks in the stock market. If you were paying attention back in 2000 and 2007, you could have avoided the mauling that most folks suffered in the ensuing bear markets. Heck, you could have even profited from them.

Those bear markets didn't appear from out of nowhere. There were plenty of warning signs. And the bear almost always gives you a chance to get away.

The rally we've seen over the past few weeks may just be your last chance to get out before the bear attacks again.

Let me explain…

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks

I have been mainly trading UWTI.....

What I'm watching and a few of my daily charts.....


(HDGE) Ranger Equity Bear ETF | AdvisorShares

Stocks....

$NAMO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


UWTI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com



http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04942422849&a=446218174


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10658950841&a=444286255


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67302127420&a=444286946




Silver Breaks Lower - Gold and PM Stocks Set to Plunge...

By: Clive Maund | Sun, Feb 28, 2016 Share

Originally published February 28th, 2016 in the Various Reports Sector
In the latest Gold and Silver Market updates, posted last weekend, the view was expressed that an intermediate top was forming gold and silver, not a bull Flag as some were suggesting, and the latest COT data not only confirms this view, but suggests that a severe drop is imminent, and it already started in silver on Friday. Fortunately we exited most of our long positions in the sector, many at a handsome profit, over the past 2 weeks, having spotted the danger.


http://www.safehaven.com/article/40604/silver-breaks-lower-gold-and-pm-stocks-set-to-plunge
 

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A small excerpt from one of Steve Kaplan's updates.


This is a brief update for Friday early afternoon, February 26, 2016.


VIX: watch it retreat and then complete yet another higher low near 15


One indicator which is highly useful and almost completely misunderstood is VIX, which measures the average implied volatility of a basket of options on the S&P 500 Index. Historically, when a bull market is in its final stages, VIX will complete a multi-year bottom and will then begin to form a pattern of higher lows. A good example from the last decade was when VIX bottomed at 9.39 on December 15, 2006. Afterward, it made higher lows throughout 2007 and all the way until October 24, 2008, when it completed a top at 89.53. Although U.S. equity indices continued to grind lower through the first nine days of March 2009, VIX made a lower high in November 2008 and several additional lower highs, so that by the time March rolled around it was enormously lower than it had been at the October 2008 top; its most elevated level in March 2009 was merely 53.25--and that was on March 2, not March 6 or 9. This was a signal that a bull market was approaching. Notice that the same pattern has repeated again in the most recent bull market which ended in the second quarter of 2015 (yes, it's officially over, folks; the current rebound proves it), when VIX bottomed on July 3, 2014 at 10.28. Since then, it has made a huge number of higher lows, the last one being 14.45 on December 24, 2015 which was just over two months ago. Most likely, the next higher low will be somewhere around 15. When that happens, if you sold HDGE or other bear funds or made some U.S. equity index or technology purchases when I had recommended selling HDGE earlier this month, you can again gradually reverse direction by going back to the short side.

True Contrarian

HDGE link....Steve uses this fund because because if held 12 months it can be used for LT capital gains. That is not true for most short funds.

(HDGE) Ranger Equity Bear ETF | AdvisorShares


SevenSentinels ‏@SevenSentinels 11h11 hours ago
10 PM, February 29, 2016 Heading Towards Next Trade Op

https://twitter.com/sevensentinels
 

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A small excerpt from Steve’s latest update:

This is a brief update for Friday early evening, March 4, 2016.

VIX almost reaches its Christmas Eve lows

VIX slid to 16.05 in Friday’s trading, which is a level it hadn’t previously touched since December 29, 2015. VIX has been forming over a dozen higher lows since it had bottomed on July 3, 2014, which is characteristic of the period preceding a bear market and in the early stages of a bear market. In the late stages of a bear market, VIX will reach a multi-year top and will then begin to form lower highs. At each higher low for VIX, once we are in a bear market as we almost certainly are for most U.S. equity indices, it makes sense to add to short positions or to make equivalent trades by selling general equity holdings and buying funds such as HDGE. HDGE dropped to 10.92 on an intraday basis. The last intermediate-term bottom for VIX was 14.45 on December 24, 2015, indicating that VIX has roughly two additional points of downside potential which could be accompanied by modestly higher prices for U.S. equity indices. However, most of the rally has already happened. Investors who sold in January or early February and are just now “getting back into the market” will end up as disappointed as they had been when they were buying at the December 2015 peak, at the highs in June 2015, or at any of the other relatively elevated points along the way. Bear markets begin with numerous lower highs before they end up–often a year or more later–finally accelerating their downtrends. It could be a year or more before the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq finally collapse, although the next important correction could begin this month and will likely end several weeks later.

True Contrarian


$VIX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


$NAMO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13103970915&a=444286946


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p18628777315&a=446310828
 
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