Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

An Ongoing Problem for the Fed
Eric Shamilov | Feb 1, 2022 | Market Minute | 5 min read
Goldman Sachs recently came out with some very interesting market calls…

One of them is that the Fed will be forced into five rate increases this year. That may seem like a groundbreaking and enlightening projection, especially considering the Fed itself is only calling for three.

Essentially, they think the Fed will have to get much more aggressive than they’re letting on publicly.

But they’re not the only ones… the market is also actively betting against the Fed, and pricing in five hikes this year.

That’s important because we’re now in the middle of the relief rally we called for last week.

Relief rallies are dangerous because they tend to make people believe the worst is behind us… and forget the tectonic shift that is underway in the global economy.
A Projection That’s Too Close for Comfort
Bloomberg has a great index that extracts the estimated number of rate hikes from various interest rate derivatives.

The information packed into this one chart is very telling…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/an-ongoing-problem-for-the-fed/
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    32 KB · Views: 52
Small traders are panicking to a record degree

Jason Goepfert

Published: 2022-02-01 at 07:20:44 CST

Small traders are showing record levels of panic

Last week saw some of the most volatile price action in 2 years, a barrage of nasty headlines, and a cutting in half of a near-majority of stocks on the Nasdaq.

It was enough to trigger panic among the most leveraged traders in the market.

Small options traders bought to open nearly 12 million put options last week, spending $6.5 billion for the privilege of protecting their portfolios. That's a remarkable jump in trades meant to hedge against further losses. It's 40% higher than even the worst week during the March 2020 meltdown.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-0b26b855e2-1271291994
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    65.2 KB · Views: 54
SPY daily: Well, we hit a 50% retracement on this bounce off the lows. Will it bring in more shorts or buyers or maybe just some sideways action. It depends on who you ask!

Bottom Line: The new daily cycle puts me back on a buy signal, but will it fail? We shall see how today plays out.

Long GDXJ, EQX and VXF
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    146.2 KB · Views: 60
Smoke’em If You Got Them
Posted on January 31, 2022

We discussed on Thursday that stocks need to close above both the 200 day MA nd the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. On Friday they came close, but no cigar.

Stocks closed convincingly above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle. Looks like its is time to …

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    133.5 KB · Views: 63
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    45 KB · Views: 62

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    125.8 KB · Views: 62
Last edited:
Fib videos:

I sometimes track the Fib's after a huge sell-off, but I DO NOT use them for placing trades. Waiting to see how this Fib retracement plays out. Will this move back up be a Right or Left Translated daily cycle?

Cycle Translation

Right & Left Translated Cycle

A cycle is defined by the lowest points of a price series centered around a cycle peak
https://lmtoolbox.wordpress.com/cycle-translation/


Trading Tip #6: How To Use The Fibonacci Retracement Tool
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LznyjkxqrDc&t=59s

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT [For Beginners] - The ULTIMATE Beginner's Guide
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    122.7 KB · Views: 62
Last edited:
VIX buy signal: up 100% of the times...
JPM Equity strategy: "VIX produced a buy signal last week. Post the signal, 100% of the time SPX was up over the next 1 and 6 months, outside recessions".
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    122.7 KB · Views: 58
VIX buy signal: up 100% of the times...
JPM Equity strategy: "VIX produced a buy signal last week. Post the signal, 100% of the time SPX was up over the next 1 and 6 months, outside recessions".

https://themarketear.com/
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    123.9 KB · Views: 55
Cycle's Video: DCL? I DO NOT trade based on his work, but I respect his cycle work.

Risk or Risk On
January 31, 2022/in NewPublic /by Bob Loukas
https://thefinancialtap.com/2022/01/risk-or-risk-on/

SPY daily: I trade the daily cycles.....

SPY weekly:

SPY monthly:
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    142.6 KB · Views: 57
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    156.9 KB · Views: 58
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    159.5 KB · Views: 58
Last edited:
VXF daily: Above the 3 ema and the 10 sma is a good start. We shall see how we close..... Looks like a possible DCL and a new daily buy signal.

SPY daily: C fund same as above

VTI daily : Combo of the C and S funds.....over 4500 stocks.... Best in my opinion for LT positions.
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    55.7 KB · Views: 65
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    142.7 KB · Views: 66
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    134.7 KB · Views: 69
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    174.3 KB · Views: 67
SPY weekly: A possible ICL could be close..... I trade the daily data not the weekly, but ICL's with a confirmed signal can move up for 18 to 25 weeks on average.
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    155.8 KB · Views: 76
VIX daily: Above average odds for a ST bounce..... Waiting on a confirmed DCL.....and NO WHIPSAW after it's confirmed. This market remains tough to trade..... The dollar move down should help a bounce get started..... We shall see if Friday's move can continue higher, and we have a DCL. SPY needs to get back above its 10 dma.

This Signal Took Its Sweet Time to Get Here
Jeff Clark | Jan 31, 2022 | Market Minute | 2 min read
We finally got our first VIX buy signal of the year.

We knew it was coming… The Volatility Index (VIX) closed above its upper Bollinger Band almost two weeks ago. All it needed to do was close back inside the bands, and it would generate a broad stock market buy signal.

It sure took its sweet time getting here…

But we got the buy signal after the stock market closed last Thursday – just in time for Friday’s bounce. And it looks like this buy signal has a lot farther to run.

Let’s take a look at the updated VIX chart, along with its Bollinger Bands…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-signal-took-its-sweet-time-to-get-here/


VIX daily chart:

SPY daily chart:
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    49.8 KB · Views: 64
  • a.png
    a.png
    37.7 KB · Views: 62
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    141.5 KB · Views: 68
EQX daily: I'm still holding shares..... A real Bloodbath last week......
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    153.8 KB · Views: 77
Just a consolidation within the bull market

JPM technical analysis team compared the SPX and the US2/10 yield curve on a longer time horizon. They write; "market response to the initial removal of accommodative monetary policy in the last four economic cycles produced multi-month ranges with 10-15% peak-to-trough amplitudes. The current drop already covered that ground....current setback is similar to the 1983, 1994, 2004, and 2015 episodes, a consolidation within a bull market."

Did you buy the dip?

https://themarketear.com/
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    182.2 KB · Views: 73
When did you buy the dip is more important....

Yes I bought the dip and it was a tad early....

Did you buy the dip?
Slightly more bullish seasonality is supposed to kick in going forward, but then another set back later in February. So far it continues to work...
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    86.7 KB · Views: 58
GDX/NUGT: I will be trading NUGT as we come out of the next DCL and then flip to GDX as we get deeper into the Daily Cycle. I will be trying to catch the first few days of the oversold bounce. Especially if this is an ICL. (STBD) We shall see if they smack stocks and gold down again once the futures open. I will be watching the dollar.

Long: GDXJ, EQX, and VXF
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    170 KB · Views: 70
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    159.5 KB · Views: 69
Last edited:
AAIIBULL/BEAR/NAAIM/PUT/CALL daily charts: For those that track Sentiment
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    19.9 KB · Views: 64
  • a.png
    a.png
    54.8 KB · Views: 65
  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    242 KB · Views: 70
Last edited:
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie

Jan 28
In the span of four weeks, six negative daily Dow reversals of 1%+. This happened 99% of the time in the past in 1987 (crash); 1990 (recession), 1997-98 (Asian crisis); 2000-03 (tech wreck/recession), 2008-09 (GFC), 2018 (Powell!). All either ~20% corrections or 30%+ bear markets
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
 
VTI daily and a possibe DCL: Back above the 3 ema on Friday so the 10 dma be up next. A gap up on "Easy Money Monday" would smoke some more of the shorts out of their positions and probably reduce the put/call ratio.

I might get a buy signal next week for VTI, but will it get whipsawed?
 

Attachments

  • a.jpg
    a.jpg
    135.7 KB · Views: 80
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top