Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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TLT/EDV/BND weekly chart: The move down continues... I was whipsawed at the $88.77 low marker

I remain long TLT and I'm reinvesting my dividends. I'm not adding additional shares until I see a confirmed ICL.
 

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On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.

www.hussmanfunds.com

Pressing for Yet More - Hussman Funds

It’s enormously tempting to imagine, at bubble highs, that glorious backward-looking returns, far greater than those previously implied by valuations, demonstrate that historical standards of value are outdated and obsolete. In 1934, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd described the mood surrounding...
www.hussmanfunds.com www.hussmanfunds.com
 
USD weekly: At week 15 this could be a possible move down into an ICL. If so, good for stocks....
 

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VTI daily: A nice gap up above the 10 and 20 day MA's, and a new daily cycle is in play. The 50 day MA be up next!

SPX daily: DCL in play
 

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SPX/SPY daily: For now the SPX is looking pretty good, but it needs to get back above the 50 day MA. We shall see how it plays out.
 

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Thank you "robo" very much for your posting/ sharing here. I especially appreciated your link-post Tuesday from Hussman-Funds; I waded through all the Econ-numbers & charts (which are very worthwhile though I struggle to comprehend well & seek to heed), when I got to his unexpected shift and heartfelt comments about the "peacemakers" & particularly J. E. Carter & wife; great humans, great POTUS & 1st-Lady, faithful in their spiritual faiths to Him - as much as they could be.
 
FAAM said:
Thank you "robo" very much for your posting/ sharing here. I especially appreciated your link-post Tuesday from Hussman-Funds; I waded through all the Econ-numbers & charts (which are very worthwhile though I struggle to comprehend well & seek to heed), when I got to his unexpected shift and heartfelt comments about the "peacemakers" & particularly J. E. Carter & wife; great humans, great POTUS & 1st-Lady, faithful in their spiritual faiths to Him - as much as they could be.
Click to expand...
You're welcome. The Carter's were great people.
 
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Jesse:

thefelderreport.com

Why Are So Many CEOs Jumping Ship?

Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. LINK "Non-Mega Cap stocks could reasonably outperform Mega Cap stocks by about 7 percentage points annually
thefelderreport.com thefelderreport.com
 
This was week 23, placing stocks in their timing band for an ICL. Stocks rallied this week to close back above the 10 week MA to signal week 23 as the ICL. Stocks should have turned the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline. However, stocks did not turn the 10 week MA lower at the previous ICL and it appears that it will not do so again. Stocks are currently in a weekly uptrend. A weekly swing low and a close above the declining weekly trend line will indicate a continuation of its weekly uptrend and signal a weekly cycle band buy signal — in which will label week 23 as the ICL.
likesmoneycycletrading.blog

Stocks About To Cross The Line

Stocks broke to a new low this week to extend its intermediate cycle decline. This was week 23, placing stocks in their timing band for an ICL. Stocks rallied this week to close back above the 10 w…
likesmoneycycletrading.blog likesmoneycycletrading.blog

SPX/VTI/IWM monthly charts:
 

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SPX weekly: It looks good for a test of the highs.... We shall see how it plays out!

SPX monthly: Tracking...
 

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Gold/IAU monthly: I currently have NO position in this sector, and based on the 9 to 1 long position by the Specs the data indicates a mover lower is coming.
 

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After hitting an extreme, we have a very nice move up for small caps. They also tagged the 200 day MA! This will be day 6 for the move up, so ST traders should expect a pullback soon as the PMOBUYALL moves back to neutral. I will be moving out of VTI at Vanguard before the close. The ICL and the buy signal remains in play.

We shall see if VTI can make a new high or a lower high.....

Good Trading!

Keep in mind when you look at my posts, that I'm a short-term trader.

 

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VTI daily: Close to a new high.... Small caps still have a way to go.....
 

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VTI charts: The odds continue to increase for a move back to tag the 10 and 20 day MA or a possible fill the gap on the VTI daily chart. That is based on the current patterns on the VTI daily chart. ( Some will call that Consolidation) It sure looks like new highs are coming for the SPX/SPY.

Bottom Line: VTI remains on a buy signal, and it is trying to make a higher high.... My current long positions are now based on risk management. As a trader the oversold extreme has been completed. For investors it be different.

When ST trading I look for oversold extremes..... If I don't see an extreme to ST trade my cash remains in VMFXX earning over 4%....

VMFXX-Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com investor.vanguard.com

I'm still watching to see how things play out in DC. So far, the market looks like it's not to concerned about the current orders placed by Trump.

Waiting on the next extreme to trade....
 

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S daily: The odds are still favoring a pullback or some continued sideways action as the !PMOBUYALL has hit a 100 again. With that said, things are looking pretty good overall. Right now, the market doesn't seem to care what Trump is doing.

We shall see how it plays out as the daily is no longer oversold. We shall also see what happens if the tariff talk heats back up.

I want to point out again that I'm short-term trading.
 

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