Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

I found this online https://www.fedweek.com/fedweek/bud...s-retirement-health-insurance-other-benefits/ but nothing mentioned about the G-Fund. The problem if they do that is that retirees and older employees that have the option for Age-Based In-Service Withdrawals would likely transfer money out of TSP and currently the G-Fund is one of the big reasons for keeping money in TSP since there are many low cost ETFs that now have lower expense ratios

Anything that is done during the next 4 years can be undone. For now, these are just talking points on how to save money. I doubt any of this will happen. However, it is good to know what the cost cutters are up to.....

Take Care.

 

[robo]

IWM and VTI daily: VTI remains above its 10 day MA, but IWM is still unable to close above its 50 day MA. We shall see if investors like small caps, and we get additional rotation into that sector. IWM is testing the 50 day MA this morning, but one day does not make a trend....

A nice move up for IWM this morning. A rotation out of big caps? We shall see...

 

[robo]

TLT weekly: TLT is trying to move back above the 10 week MA. We shall see if the ICL is confirmed, and if we start a new weekly trend higher... BND has already made the move.

Long TLT.

 

[robo]

NVDA daily: Bouncing above and below the 200 day MA. We shall see how it plays out..

Long NVDA again.... Beer Money trade!

NVDA Targets - Fearless Forecasters

NVDA Targets - posted in Fearless Forecasters: My relatively bullish EWave count on NVDA is shown below which leads to a down-side target somewhere around 100 which is the four (iv) of previous degree. Fibonacci retracement targets are shown below with the 100 or so target above...

www.traders-talk.com

 

[robo]

IAU/Gold monthly: A nice move up, but probably the hedge funds looking for places to put their NVDA/Big cap tech (rotation) funds. I'm looking to short this sector again due to the extreme spec position. The Specs are hitting another all time extreme, and I look for extremes to trade. We shall see what the COT indicates tomorrow.

 

[robo]

The 4 year cycle low and the SPX/GDX: The historical patterns show us that GDX will bottom before the SPX. The mean for the SPX should tag the 50 month MA. We shall see how it plays out, and what GDX does. The pattern is telling us when stocks sell-off hard so will GDX. It could be different this time, but only time will tell.

For the record: I don't trade gold, I just track it. I trade GDX and GDXJ. I no longer trade using leverage as I was whipsawed waaaay to many times. (NUGT, DUST....etc....) I'm currently only using a Vanguard account for trading, and you can't buy NUGT or DUST at Vanguard. LOL.... that keeps me out of trouble...

 

[robo]

We get higher prices and Trump uses those funds for his tax cuts which will mainly go to the rich. Maybe he will change his mind. My concern is what Mexico and Canada will do.

Bottom Line: All of us will be paying for those tax cuts.... LOL.... I already knew that, but it seems some folks don't get it.

"Mainstream economists are generally skeptical of tariffs, considering them a mostly inefficient way for "governments to raise money" and promote prosperity. They are especially alarmed by Trump’s latest proposed tariffs."

 

[robo]

USD weekly: Best to keep our eye on the dollar....

USD daily: A huge gap up.... A flight to safety? It looks like the start of a new daily cycle. If so it has plenty of room to run higher...

Dollar Update

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 33, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday. Tuesday’s swing low closed back above the 50 day MA to signal a n…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

3. Currency Wars Are Back and Trade Wars Are Coming​

The super-strong dollar today makes it difficult for other countries to buy U.S. goods. Tariffs will make the global dollar shortage worse as foreign investors seek dollars to jump the tariff walls and invest directly in the U.S.

Both the strong dollar and the coming U.S. tariffs invite retaliation by trading partners who will put up their own tariff walls. The result will be a global contraction in trade that could resemble the trade collapse of the 1930s during the Great Depression. U.S. stocks fell 85% from October 1929 to June 1932 during that episode of trade wars. A repeat could be on the way if economies such as China (that should be boosting consumption) choose to fight trade wars instead.

We’ll be closely monitoring all these threats and provide you with the best in analysis and recommendations in the coming weeks and months.

Rickards: A U.S. Recession is Coming - Daily Reckoning

Jim Rickards reviews the Trump admin's progress so far, and the economic threats it faces.

dailyreckoning.com

 

[robo]

VTI daily: I almost BTD in early trading, but decided to wait. A nice recovery.... We shall see how the rest of the week plays out.

USD daily: After that huge gap up the dollar pulled back. Keep in mind this could happen again if the trade war talk heats up in the weeks ahead.

 

[robo]

VTI/IWM and the YCL: It has been a nice run since the last YCL. When is the next one coming, and a tag of the mean? The historical patterns and the odds favor 2025. We shall see how it plays out....

 

[robo]

Gold monthly chart: I currently have NO position in this sector.

The Market Ear | Live news, analysis and commentary on what moves markets and trading | The Market Ear

The Market Ear | Live news, analysis and commentary on what moves markets and trading

themarketear.com

Gold continues surging, trading well above the break out levels. We are in overbought land, but as we all know, things can stay overbought for longer than most think possible...especially post powerful break outs. There is a big trend channel worth pointing out. Plenty more to go should we try the upper part of that channel. Not impossible given the extraordinary taking place (more here). After all, gold is the everything hedge.​

[td]The gold bull[/td]

​

 

[robo]

VTI weekly: VTI moved back above the 10 week MA after the ST news dump. Who knows what be coming next. New highs or a lower high be up next. The cycle data remains supportive of a move higher.... We shall see how it plays out. The rotation into med and small caps continue, and there is no fear of BTD.

 

[robo]

VTI weekly: It has been 10 weeks since VTI printed the $301.97 high marker. We shall see if this is a topping pattern in the months ahead. I'm waiting on the next news event for an extreme to trade. Who knows what is coming next....

 

[robo]

VTI weekly: It looks like a new all-time high is coming soon.... Waiting on the jobs numbers....​

​

Unstoppable retail crowd breaks US stock buying record despite rout​

Appetite for US stocks among retail traders shows no indication of fading anytime soon, despite allocations already having been boosted to one of the highest levels in over two decades

Mom-and-pop investor sentiment has reached the highest level on record, surpassing what was seen during the meme-stock mania in 2021, according to Emma Wu, JPMorgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategist. Individual investor exposure to stocks is near the highest level its been since 1997, an analysis by Barclays’ global head of equities tactical strategies Alexander Altmann shows. And as long as the US economy remains resilient, those investors probably will stay stay in the game.

Unstoppable retail crowd breaks US stock buying record despite rout

THE volatile start to the year has spooked some professional investors but has done little to dowse retail traders’ enthusiasm for the US stock market and the so-called Magnificent 7 companies. Read more at The Business Times.

www.businesstimes.com.sg

 

[robo]

VTI/IWM/S fund daily: It looks like VTI will not make new highs today.... VTI moved back below the 10 day MA, but it's still early in the trading day. We shall see how it plays out next week. It looks like some buyers are coming in.... There remains very little Fear of BTD by retail traders. If we have a quite weekend VTI could see a gap up Monday, as folks like to BTD after weak Friday's. The !PMOBUYALL indicator did warn of a ST overbought setup after recently tagging a 100.

 

[robo]

STAT

"Equity valuations are inflated to such a degree that, as Paul Tudor Jones points out, “We could have a 30% correction in the stock market and just be back to slightly overvalued.”

“Mom-and-pop investor sentiment has reached the highest level on record, surpassing what was seen during the meme-stock mania in 2021,” reports Bloomberg.

Buying Good Things Vs. Buying Things Well

Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. QUOTE "Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying things well – and if you don’t understand

thefelderreport.com

 

[robo]

Serious Side Effects

John Mauldin sees changes in Washington as one more step toward crisis.

www.mauldineconomics.com

Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…

It’s not entirely clear what President Trump was trying to accomplish with the tariffs he imposed on Canada and Mexico, then postponed for a month. He’s mentioned several different reasons. He said on January 20 he was going to do this, and then he did, so there’s obviously some larger plan. He also ordered new tariffs on China, which he didn’t delay (at least he hadn’t, as of my deadline).

Without knowing exactly which problem (of many the country faces) Trump was trying to solve, it’s hard to say if tariffs were the best answer. Longtime readers know I am not a fan of tariffs. If implemented, the ones on Canada and Mexico would have had serious negative side effects on the economy. And it could still happen once the current postponement ends.

 

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Cycles:

Consolidation​

February 8, 2025

Consolidation

The dollar formed a swing high on Tuesday, closing below the 10 day MA. The dollar went on to close below the 50 day MA on Wednesday — however the dollar did not deliver any bearish f…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

Or maybe VTI is completing a topping pattern, and the YCL be up next. ..... We shall see in the weeks and months ahead. For now, the weekly data and the ICL remains in question? The question - was week 23 the ICL?

For now, the weekly trend remains up.

 

[robo]

Contrarian Market Economist David Rosenberg on Rethinking His “Bubble” Thesis but Staying Bearish​

David Rosenberg Explains Why Inflation & Interest Rates Will Go Lower​

 

[robo]

Waiting to see if these tariffs are put into play.

Trump Confusion Syndrome

The president’s tariff threats have big economic costs even if they’re just threats.

www.mauldineconomics.com