Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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VTI/SPX monthly charts: At month 15 both remain on a buy signal and continue their moves higher above the 10 month MA.... At some point we shall see a move back down to tag the 20 month MA. When? I only track the patterns, but some of the data I use indicates this year.....
 

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The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming. We can only know what we want. For a variety of reasons, we may or may not get it, not least of which is that we want a variety of things that may not overlap with what our fellow citizens want.

For example, my personal top priority is to see Congress get the federal debt under control. That means, as an initial step, it needs to get annual deficits down to a point where debt grows no faster than GDP. That would stabilize the situation, and from there we could work on longer-term solutions.
Click to expand...

 
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Keep your eye on this one: Trump wants rates to zero and a weak dollar..... Waiting to see how the markets act to these comments.

Gold: Trump Declares War on Powell, Strong USD | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Not a good idea to get Trump angry....

Trump Slaps Colombia With Sweeping Sanctions, Travel Ban After Two Deportation Flights Are Not Allowed To Land

Colombia Offers Presidential Plane To Repatriate Illegal Aliens After Trump Slaps Country With Sweeping Sanctions | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

I'm sure glad to hear this. I drink lots of coffee!

White House backs off on tariffs on Colombia after agreement on ‘unrestricted acceptance’ of migrants​

 

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NVDA daily: Is it time to BTD?

NVDA weekly: It found support at the 50 week MA. We shall see how it plays out as it's all just a big news event right now.

Buyers coming in after the close, I had an order in to buy 10 shares @ 117.00ish, but it never filled. The 10 shares was a ST news event trade... The volume is fairly good for after hours trading.

 

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Lol....​

Poking the Powell Bear​

What does a “pissed-off” Jerome Powell look like?

Better yet… What does an angry FOMC Chairman do?

We’ll find out tomorrow when Mr. Powell announces the FOMC decision on interest rates for the first time this year.

The market does not expect any change in policy. Rates will remain the same, and the Fed will continue to monitor the data while leaning towards lowering rates later this year.

Of course, that’s assuming Mr. Powell will maintain his composure after being poked by President Trump.

 
NVDA 60/10 minute: NVDA is back testing the low this morning, and has undercut yesterday's low.... My 117ish order was filled..... We shall see how this plays out.
 

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NVDA; Taking the profits and waiting on the next extreme to trade....

It looks like the BOT's like this trade....
 

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TLT/BND and the ICL: BND remains above the 10 week MA..... Watching!

We shall see if they take an axe to the G Fund returns...

  • $47 billion in cuts to the yielding on the Thrift Savings Plan G Fund.

www.afge.org

$124 Billion in Federal Benefits on House Republicans’ Chopping Block

House Republicans started the new year with a list of proposed cuts they want to make under the budget reconciliation process, an expedited procedure that doesn’t require the Senate’s normal 60-vote threshold.
www.afge.org www.afge.org

TLT/BND daily:
 

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NVDA daily after the close chart: A nice move higher after hitting an oversold, news driven extreme.... We shall see what tomorrow brings....

No position
 

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robo said:
TLT/BND and the ICL: BND remains above the 10 week MA..... Watching!

We shall see if they take an axe to the G Fund returns...

  • $47 billion in cuts to the yielding on the Thrift Savings Plan G Fund.

www.afge.org

$124 Billion in Federal Benefits on House Republicans’ Chopping Block

House Republicans started the new year with a list of proposed cuts they want to make under the budget reconciliation process, an expedited procedure that doesn’t require the Senate’s normal 60-vote threshold.
www.afge.org www.afge.org

TLT/BND daily:
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I'm glad I'm retired.
Do you have anything recent addressing changes to the G Fund?
I think they would have increased everyone to higher retirement contributions back in 2013-14 if they were able to do so & our federal health insurance premiums just recently went up 13% on average. This article sounds like government employees are victims, which is not true IMO. "This injustice has resulted in serious shortfall in federal workers’ retirement income." If there is a serious shortfall, the employees are not taking advantage of TSP...I still remember the 3 legged stool analogy that they had when implementing FERS.
 
evilanne said:
I'm glad I'm retired.
Do you have anything recent addressing changes to the G Fund?
I think they would have increased everyone to higher retirement contributions back in 2013-14 if they were able to do so & our federal health insurance premiums just recently went up 13% on average. This article sounds like government employees are victims, which is not true IMO. "This injustice has resulted in serious shortfall in federal workers’ retirement income." If there is a serious shortfall, the employees are not taking advantage of TSP...I still remember the 3 legged stool analogy that they had when implementing FERS.
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The cost cutters want to reduce the G Fund rate paid to under 1% per year, and not tied to rates. It would save them billions over a 10 year period. Who knows what is coming next, but the government work force and benefits are being looked at closely.

We shall see how it all plays out.
 
NVDA daily: A back test of the 200 day MA..... So far it held as BTDers came in.... Probably BOT's.....
 

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robo said:
The cost cutters want to reduce the G Fund rate paid to under 1% per year, and not tied to rates. It would save them billions over a 10 year period. Who knows what is coming next, but the government work force and benefits are being looked at closely.

We shall see how it all plays out.
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I found this online https://www.fedweek.com/fedweek/bud...s-retirement-health-insurance-other-benefits/ but nothing mentioned about the G-Fund. The problem if they do that is that retirees and older employees that have the option for Age-Based In-Service Withdrawals would likely transfer money out of TSP and currently the G-Fund is one of the big reasons for keeping money in TSP since there are many low cost ETFs that now have lower expense ratios
 
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