Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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SPY/USD daily: The USD continues its move higher, and the SPY tagged the lower BB on the daily chart. The good news is buyers came in, but the bad news is we are getting deeper into a possible YCL coming our way. We shall see how it all plays out.

So what does that mean? For me, based on my data, I'm MT Bearish and ST Bullish. Waiting on the the change over in DC before holding any MT positions.

Note the monthly chart (SPY/VXF/IWM/VTI): If you use the 10 month MA for LT positions like I do, we still have NO sell signals.... That doesn't mean that it's all clear sailing. We are deep into this cycle and many other indicators are flashing - "Danger" Get ready to Reduce your positions Will Rogers....
 

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What is TLT telling us? We shall see how it plays out.... The pattern remains normal for now as the 10 year continues higher. Based on the historical data/patterns, It's my opinion more rate cuts are coming in the months ahead.
 

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TLT/SPX/Fedrates monthly: Why buy TLT? My data and the historical patterns indicate rates are going lower in the months ahead. Waiting on the change over in DC to see how things play out.
 

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USD weekly and monthly charts: The move higher continues as the trend remains up.
The weekly data is getting a tad stretched above the 10 week MA. We shall see what the dollar does as the change over in DC gets closer. A flight to safety, or a move lower. We shall see....

I'm still betting on a ST move up for stocks, but not looking good right now.

ST daily trading chart: Oversold! The ST trade is based on the patterns that VTI will move back above the 50 day MA. So far it's looking like a whipsaw, but I trade the data.... win, lose or draw. The odds were above average when I took the trade.
 

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"Trump To Sign Around 100 Executive Orders Upon Taking Office"​


I probably will not own stocks on day one..... I don't have the FOMO

I will wait, and see how this will play out.... Some sectors will do well, others might selloff!

Pass the popcorn as I watch the show....

I will be watching the USD and the Bond Market for clues for ST trading using the daily chart.

Most think stocks are the place to be..... We shall see!

​

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Jan 11, 2025 - 01:45 PM
President-elect Donald Trump will sign around 100 executive orders as soon as he takes office, according to Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK).

Trump To Sign Around 100 Executive Orders Upon Taking Office | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 

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SPY/SPX: All I can say is whipsawed on my daily trading chart: Not looking good right now.... We shall see how it plays out, but the SPX needs to get back above the 50 day MA.
 

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VTI//Sfund/IWM: IWM has tagged the 200 day MA this morning and held. Buyers came in so we shall see how the week goes.

My ST daily data remains oversold, so I'm still looking for a ST bounce. TSI and PMOBUYAll need to turn up and get VTI back above the 50 day MA.
 

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SPX/VTI weekly: Week 3 since moving below the 10 week MA, and week 5 since the first tag of the 10 week MA. A possible ICL remains in play.
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What sector will do the best is 2025?

Survey says: US Stocks......we shall see!
 

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$DWCPF and the 100 day MA: Will it hold? I'm still looking for an "oversold" bounce back closer to the upper BB. A move that might take 5 to 7 days, but that is based on other patterns. Things have changed in the last few months so we shall see how it plays out.
 

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rangerray said:
I think quite a few of us are anticipating an S Fund bounce!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The !PMOBUYALL indicator has been a good one in the past, and this "could be day 46" for the daily cycle. We shall see how this oversold pattern plays out. I have already been whipsawed once trading the current oversold pattern using my daily trading charts. Those indicators and a tag of the 50 day MA have been money in the months past. However, one never knows for sure when patterns will no longer work.

I remain long for now, but we still have the ICL and YCL to deal with, and who knows what will be coming out of DC in the weeks ahead. Will the market like it is the money question?
 

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We shall see how it plays out.

Bullish Reversal​

January 13, 2025
likesmoneycycletrading.blog

Bullish Reversal

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday. The status of the daily cycle has not been clear. In real-time, the rally following the day 33 low closed above the 10 day MA to appear as if day 33 was …
likesmoneycycletrading.blog likesmoneycycletrading.blog
 

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tsptalk said:
Maybe, but where's the trading volume? No institutional buying yet. :unsure:

We shall see how it plays out, but the daily remains oversold, and the daily cycle is getting stretched. I'm not sure why Big Players would want to add right now.
Click to expand...
 

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BKX/SPX daily chart: We shall see how the Bank Stocks do after they report.​

​

We’ll Follow the Banks This Earnings Season…​

Jeff Clark | Jan 14, 2025 | Market Minute | 3 min read


The Bullish Percent Index for the Financial Sector (BPFINA) has pulled way back from the extremely overbought condition we noted in November. But, at 45, the index is in neutral territory and well above the 30 level from which strong bank stocks rallies often emerge.

This is one of those times where there isn’t a strong risk/reward setup for betting on the bank stocks as we enter earnings season. Traders are better off waiting to see which direction BKX heads when it breaks out of the wedge, and then betting on a continued move in the direction of the break.

Let’s also keep in mind, if the bank stocks break down then the rest of the market is likely headed lower. On the other hand, if BKX breaks out to the upside, then look for the broad stock market to rally.

Best regards and good trading,

Signature

www.jeffclarktrader.com

We’ll Follow the Banks This Earnings Season… | Jeff Clark Trader

The banks are set to break out one way or the other this earnings season…
www.jeffclarktrader.com www.jeffclarktrader.com
 

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Warren is just not in cash.... He has that $325 billion in government notes earning around 5%.. That would be around $16 billion a year in interest. Guess who be paying that? Valuations still matter to some investors....

Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has about $325 billion in cash, accounting for over a quarter of its portfolio—the highest percentage in over 30 years. The question begging an answer is, what is worrying Warren Buffett?

We believe the answer is valuations. We have shared numerous charts over the last few months showing how valuations are on par or even higher than those of 1999 and 1929. Warren Buffett’s preferred market valuation metric is the ratio of the total stock market cap to GDP. The ratio stands at 230%, 2% below the level when the market peaked in 2021 and well above 175% in 1999. The foundation of this calculation is that earnings, thus ultimately asset values, are the result of economic activity. Therefore, a rising ratio potentially signals investors are expecting too much future earnings growth.


realinvestmentadvice.com

Daily Market Commentary Archives

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