Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

What happens when the yield curve inversion has completed. A historical chart, and it had better be different this time. Some are saying soft landing, and that is possible. We shall see how it plays out.

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7% | Wolf Street

 

[robo]

Time to look forward into the new year.

Jeff Clark:

An Angel’s Trading Wisdom… – Market Minute

 

[robo]

Vanguard: I trade VTI at Vanguard when I'm long stocks. VTI remains in an uptrend on the monthly chart....

Vanguard Thinks The Party Is Almost Over For U.S. Stocks

If you owned U.S. stocks and ETFs — you hit the jackpot in 2024. But some think the chips need to fall as gravity sets in for the S&P 500.

www.investors.com

Say what! No more buy and hold for the long run....

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024122474/this-contrarian-investor-says-the-tech-bubble-is-getting-scary-heres-his-game-plan

True Contrarian

A refreshing contrarian look at the global financial markets.

truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com

 

[robo]

IAU/Gold/GDX: The dollar and the crazy stuff going on DC remains the wildcard.

Usdx Weve Got A Cup And Weve Got A Handle | GoldPriceForecast.com

<p>The USD Index formed a cup-and-handle pattern, which means that it could launch a quick upswing any day or hour now.</p>

www.goldpriceforecast.com

 

[robo]

I currently have NO positions in this sector..... I wait!

I use ratios on my IAU/Gold charts for tracking the COT data.

Jack Chan: Gold

Gold Price Exclusive Update​

Gold Price Exclusive Update

Gold sector cycle is down. Trend is up for USD and down for gold & gold stocks. Waiting for a new set up to trade the short side.

www.gold-eagle.com

 

[robo]

ADLINENYA daily: We shall see if buyers come in next week and can move the advance decline line back above the 100 and the 50 day MA.

VTI monthly: For now, the VTI monthly data remains in an uptrend above its 10 month MA. The daily is having some trouble as the advance decline line has been moving lower.

 

[robo]

TLT weekly: I have been trying to catch the next ICL for TLT as we are deep into this cycle. A gap up this morning and a possible ICL is in play for TLT.... We shall see if it has legs, as some buyers are retreating from stocks going into 2025. The insiders continue to set selling records as PE's of many of these companies are at extremes. Are we about to see a flight to safety?

VTI weekly: VTI has gapped down below the 10 week MA.... We shall see if the selling continues going into 2025.... Waiting on a confirmed signal for the ICL/YCL in stocks before taking another position in VTI. This is week 4 since printing the 301.97 high marker.

VTI daily: VTI is below its 50 day MA, but buyers are coming in after tagging the lower BB. That has worked well for the last two years, and that will continue until it doesn't. Just BTD is a trend that will continue for some traders/investors as we head into 2025. Tagging or under cutting the lower BB has been a good buy signal for sometime now on the daily chart...

 

[robo]

IAU/GOLD/GDX monthly: I currently have NO positions in this sector as I wait for better prices... The data and the patterns indicate the odds are above average for a pullback and a better buying op.

Gold Price Exclusive Update

Gold sector cycle is down. Trend is up for USD and down for gold & gold stocks. Waiting for a new set up to trade the short side.

www.gold-eagle.com

What a Rich Day: In Signals and In Profits | Golden Meadow

[NOTE: Today’s analysis is a quote from today’s Gold Trading Alert (it’s two key parts). Normally, those are reserved to those, who subscribe to the Gold Trading Alerts or the Diamond Package. This quote is provided as a courtesy and is available ex...

www.goldenmeadow.eu

 

[robo]

Jesse:

The last Bear Standing

The Last Bear Standing?

Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. LINK While it seems every other bear has now thrown in the towel, Jeremy Grantham remains undaunted, telling

thefelderreport.com

 

[robo]

Likesmoney: A DCL in play...



TLT/BND/EDV weekly: Watching for an ICL

Stocks Form A Swing Low

Stocks printed its lowest point on day 40, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday, turning the 10 day MA higher, to si…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

 

[robo]

Bob Farrell's rules:

The Rules Of Bob Farrell - An Updated Illustrated Guide

Discover Bob Farrell's timeless investment rules and how they still hold up in today's ever-changing market environment.

realinvestmentadvice.com

 

[robo]

SPX/VTI weekly charts: Both back above the 10 week MA as the daily gap up moved back above the 10, 20 and 50 day MA. The Bulls will want a higher high not a lower high. We shall see how it plays out.

SPY daily:

 

[tsptalk]

Bob Farrell's rules:

The Rules Of Bob Farrell - An Updated Illustrated Guide

Discover Bob Farrell's timeless investment rules and how they still hold up in today's ever-changing market environment.

realinvestmentadvice.com

1) Markets tend to return to the mean (average price) over time.

I like rule one. It works for buy and holders, and market timers.

 

[robo]

TLT monthly: I'm still looking for a ICL/YCL.

Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous

Discover the impact of recent outflows from bond ETFs like TLT. Understand how sentiment can drive these outflows.

realinvestmentadvice.com

 

[robo]

Daily SPY/USD:

As we get closer to the change over in DC the wild cards are coming into play. One of them is what the dollar will do after the First Day Orders from Trump are signed... We could see some big swings in the weeks ahead for stocks and bonds.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar has gone almost straight up since Trump won. Are you thinking it's going to be a sell the news reaction once he's inaugurated?

 

[robo]

The dollar has gone almost straight up since Trump won. Are you thinking it's going to be a sell the news reaction once he's inaugurated?

Some of the folks I follow think it might be a flight to safety, and that the dollar is going higher in the short-term.

However, I use cycle data to track the dollar. The cycle data indicates this is only month 4 since the last YCL. That gives the dollar lots of room to run. If it was a 3 year cycle low, which is possible, it could run much higher to the upside. I have NO idea how this will play out as Trump is the wild card. In the short-term the dollar could do anything.

The cycle data is something I have been using for a few years now as a warning indicator. It does look like the dollar found its YCL, but it could still fail.

It's a tough time to take new positions before Trump takes over.

Second chart by likesmoney: I'm a sub and have his service, but only use it for tracking cycles. I will be watching to see how the next daily cycle plays out.

The Dollar Is Running Into Resistance

The dollar is running into resistance at the107 level. The dollar formed a weekly swing low last week. With the dollar rallying into its new daily cycle, we need to turn our attention to the 107 re…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

UUP monthly: Stretched above the 10 month MA.

 

[robo]

TLT/SPX/BND monthly: The divergence between TLT and the SPX is at an extreme. That makes it worth watching....

Long TLT and it remains a losing trade for now... I'm still trying to catch the YCL I added some shares @ $86.00 for a MT trade. TLT pays a dividend.

TLT weekly:

 

[robo]

Why Are Bond Yields Rising?

Understanding the factors behind rising yields and when they may reverse. Explore the impact of growth, inflation, and investor sentiment.

realinvestmentadvice.com

 

[robo]

Trying to catch a bounce based on my daily oversold data. It is a high risk trade....