Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

USD dollar daily: The move lower continues and the USD remains below the 200 day MA.

Bottom Line: Remains is a downtrend..... We shall see if a flight to safety changes that in the months ahead. A tad oversold, so one would think at least a ST bounce be coming and soon. I don't use the dollar chart for trading, but track it very closely because I trade the gold miners.

HUI weekly: HUI remains below the 50 and 200 week MA. That needs to change before we can say the BULL MARKET IS BACK! Well, that's based on my trading guidelines.

The USD and HUI can move up together if the investing conditions are supportive. You can see on the chart, that at times they both move up together.

 

[robo]

$USD daily chart:

A Year-End Rally for the Buck?
The dollar is setting up for a rally…

That’s not the popular opinion, of course. Most folks are looking for the buck to break down.

You can’t blame them. After all, the Treasury Department’s printing press has been working overtime to create enough dollars to fund Washington’s non-stop spending programs.

And the talk of a Fed “pivot” to reverse some of the recent interest rate increases grew louder this week following a cooler-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report.

These factors are destined to devalue the dollar in the long term.

The greenback has already lost 5% of its value over the past two months. And it’s almost certainly headed lower over the next year.

But for the next few weeks, the setup favors a rally.

Take a look at this daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (USD)…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/a-year-end-rally-for-the-buck/

 

[robo]

Miner Resistance

The weekly chart shows that the Miners are up against dual resistance from the 50 week MA and the 200 week MA.

No trending move can be sustained until the Miners are able to close above this dual resistance. The Miners will need to complete their daily cycle decline first. I detail the status of the daily Miner cycle in the Weekend Report. The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower weekly cycle band.

 

[robo]

THE FELDER REPORT
Taking The Financial Road Less Traveled



https://mailchi.mp/felder/be-careful-what-you-wish-for?mc_cid=793a116649&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0

 

[robo]

SPX and the year end move: It should be fun to watch "IF" you are on the sidelines. We shall see how it all plays out the next few weeks.

I'm flat the SPX....


Down, but without the panic
VIX has been busy resetting post the last two macro events of the year....while SPX has been busy moving lower post FOMC. Pace and direction are two different things...


Options exposure into year end
Few bullets via Goldman's' options guru Garrett:

1. $billions of client long calls struck between 4050 and 4200 for year-end...the opposite of this is that dealers are short these options...so a move higher would result in dealers having to chase deltas to the upside as short gamma makes them shorter and shorter deltas on the way up...

2. Garrett points out that the dynamics are opposite to the downside "...significant open interest ($20bn) in the year-end 3835 strike with the assumption that the market is long"...this would dampen a possible move lower in markets

https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

SPX daily: We shall see how the topping pattern plays out this time. So far it is repeating....

 

[robo]

Shitty breadth is back
From optimistic to pessimistic levels in a few sessions. Percent of stocks above their 20 day moving average has fallen sharply. When it comes to the 50 day breadth Tier1Alpha writes: "As of yesterday's close, only 66% of S&P 500 (SPX) stocks are still holding their 50-day moving averages..."
https://themarketear.com/


A couple of my charts below: The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50/20-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes. I "DO NOT" use these indicators for trading, but I do track the data.

 

[robo]

Some Sentiment indicators heading into 2023: I DO NOT use sentiment indicators for trading, but I do track them.

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Dec 15
Investors are running for the hills.

According to Lipper, investors pulled more than $27 billion from equity mutual funds and ETFs last week.

It's the 10th-largest one-week outflow in 21 years and the largest December outflow ever, exceeding Xmas week 2018.


SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Dec 12
Traders have never spent so much on expectations for a crash.

Last week, all traders across all U.S. exchanges bought to open $4.20 (lol) in put options for every $1 in call options.

That's double what they spent during all the other panics over the past 22 years.

Fear & Greed Index
What emotion is driving the market now?

Learn more about the indexhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

 

[robo]

Put/Call

 

[robo]

Bull/Bear:

 

[robo]

I DO NOT use the above or below indicators for trading, but track them all to try and track the overall market trend. "IF" I see an indicator that is a RARE extreme I'll take a closer look. I use all of these indicators for Rusk Management only.

Bottom Line: I'm trading using Bear market rules right now, and until I see something that changes the overall downtrend the risk is high to trade from the long side.

The SPX weekly chart indicates that the SPX remains in a weekly downtrend, and continues to make lower highes. Not a place investors want to be, and traders should be staying VERY nimble if they are trying to counter-trend trade from the long side. The weekly trend remains DOWN! However, there has been some really nice Bear Market rallies to trade "IF" you have a trading account and the tools for trading. In a market like this one, with only two moves a month using TSP, it's more about being lucky since the overall weekly trend remains DOWN. We shall see what the next few weeks brings.....

I'm waiting for the next extreme to trade using Bear market rules.

 

[robo]

Gold Miners - HUI/GDX: I want to see some BEEF and a move back above the 50 and 200 week MA's before I flip from trader to investor. We could be close! A nice buy signal 9 weeks ago for HUI or GDX if you trade the weekly data. ( A move above the 10 week MA with cycle data supporting the move)


I trade the daily charts: GDX still having trouble moving above the 200 dma. A huge gap around $23.00ish. We shall see if it fills anytime soon, or it just gets left behind this cycle. The GDX daily has had a very nice run after the November low, but still some rough trading if you used only the 10 day MA for trading. Cycles have been tough too....

Bottom Line: The GDX daily data remains below the 10, 20, and 200 day MA's. Not what you want to see..... It could just be setting up for the next big move above the 200 day MA. We shall see how it all plays out in the weeks ahead.

It's best to use the 20 day MA for trading GDX. It had a 28 day buy signal since moving above the 20 day MA. We shall see how the next DCL plays out....

 

[robo]

We shall see... I remain flat the SPY.....

Technical Analysis of Stock Market | Ain't seen nothin...yet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMGiOxDvVsY&t=23s

 

[robo]

He sounds like Hussman, and could be correct....


SevenSentinels Retweeted
warren bachman
@warrenbachman1
·
17h
Quote Tweet
Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA
@WillieDelwiche
·
Dec 15
Stocks have been despised all year and yet remain historically over-owned.

If past is prologue, that's a recipe for a secular bear market and a lost decade of equity market returns.
Show this thread
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

Waiting on the USD's next move..... We shall see how his call plays out....

Bottom Line: The USD remains in a downtrend below its 10 and 20 day MA.

If you are using the weekly data it went to a sell signal many weeks ago, but did make an oversold bounce off the 50 week MA. It still remains far below it's 10 and 20 week MA's. If you are an investor its always best to use the 20 week MA. The USD went to a sell signal 30 weeks ago if you use the 20 week MA. I trade the daily, but not recommended for most folks. Easy to blowup an account in a market like this one.
S&P, Gold and Dollar Year End Trade Setups
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZwmp9o-bPM

 

[robo]

SPX daily: The move below the 50 day MA continues.... Nothing Bullish about this chart.... When you are giving opinions or making guesses about the markets next move, you have an unlimited amount of guesses. However, it you are going to put money on your guess, you can only do that twice a month using TSP funds. The weekly data ( last chart) is telling investors that one should just be watching the show right now, or when making moves stay very nimble.

 

[robo]

Bearish Signal For Stocks
Dec 19

Stocks delivered another bearish signal on Monday.

Stocks printed a lower daily low on Monday. This was day 46, placing stocks deep in their timing and for a DCL. So, stocks should be forming their DCL any day now. However, after being convincingly rejected by the declining 50 week MA last week to close below the 10 week MA, stocks opened up this week by delivering bearish follow through by forming a weekly swing high. This potentially sets stocks up for a left translated weekly cycle formation. Stocks are in a weekly downtrend. Forming a weekly swing high below the lower weekly cycle band indicates a continuation of the weekly downtrend and signal a weekly cycle band sell signal.

 

[robo]

They’ve Ruled Out Tail Risk
Print Friendly, PDF & Email




John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

December 2022

As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history. The apparent shallowness of this loss isn’t a sign of “resilience.” Despite being nearly a year into what we expect to be a far deeper retreat, the relatively shallow loss isn’t even surprising. The same thing happened in the first year of each of the three deepest post-war stock market collapses: the 2000-2002, 2007-2009, and 1973-74.

Specifically, from the March 24, 2000 bubble peak through March 9, 2001 (just under a year into that bear market, as today), the S&P 500 index lost only -19.3%. Similarly, from October 7, 2007 through September 19, 2008, in what was soon to be known as the global financial crisis, the S&P 500 lost just -19.8%. From January 11, 1973 market peak to January 2, 1974, the S&P 500 lost just -18.8%, amid a bear market that would ultimately take the stock market down by half.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc221219/


""' amid a bear market that would ultimately take the stock market down by half""""" A tag of the 200 month MA should just about do it based on my historical data charts. We shall see how it all plays out in the months ahead. I traded in the last two Bear Markets - they are circled in blue on the chart below. I also lost money during both of them. I'm not going to do that again because I have strict Risk Management rules in place. I'm up as we close out 2022. Cash is king when you are in a Bear Market!

 

[robo]

TLT weekly: It has been a nice move since printing the $91.19 low marker..... We shall see if the 10 week MA holds if we get a back test. It was getting a tad stretched above the 10 week MA.

 

[robo]

SPX daily after the close: The move down continues.... That black candle at the 200 day MA was sure trying to tell us something.