Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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We shall see how it plays out! In my opinion - the gap between the SPX and the 200 month MA is going to get much closer in the months ahead.

SevenSentinels Retweeted
Mac10
@SuburbanDrone
·
5h
Those who are pounding the table constantly on Fed pivot should know that when the Fed pivoted in Y2K, the Nasdaq lost most of its value.

And when they pivoted in 2007, the housing bubble imploded.

Today's bulls are all waiting for the melt-up to begin.

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 

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SPX daily: The SPX remains above the 10 dma. We shall see ii it can hold now that the election is over. I'm still short XLE:


When is it time to short?

The question now is if this is the 8th or the 16th of August - the difference could be monumental for the survival of a short position. The latest data from the various prime brokerage desks we trade with indicates that we are very close to the end of the bounce - and that is what this email examines. From a trading perspective we still would want to see a test of 4100 to get involved in a pure delta 1 short - and are happy for now with our VIX logic from yesterday. There is more often than not a little extra juice left to squeeze in moves like these and we need to be surgical in terms of implementation. Stay tuned.


https://themarketear.com/
 

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EQX/GDXJ/JNUG 30 min: Filling the gaps or time for a deeper pullback?
 

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We shall see how it all plays out in the years ahead!
SPX monthly chart:


Weighing Machine, Voting Machine
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

November 2022

Despite the market losses year-to-date, my view is that prospective 10-12 year returns for a passive investment allocation remain dismal. The recent rally in stock market has driven our estimates of 10-12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns back below zero, while enthusiasm over a small retreat in inflation has brought bond yields down as well. As I noted last month (see the section titled “Far from a Fed pivot” in Estimating Downside Market Risk), the 10-year Treasury bond yield has rarely stood below the weighted average of Treasury bill yields (0.50), core CPI inflation (0.25), and nominal GDP growth (0.25). Presently, that weighted average is above 5%. That may very well come down as inflation abates, or recession takes hold. Still, my impression is that a 3.7% yield on the 10-year bond requires speculation about those outcomes, particularly in a market where one can earn 4% – and likely more shortly – from 3-month Treasury bills.

It’s equally important to recognize that the stock market losses that we’ve observed year-to-date are merely a give-back of the frothiest segment of the recent market bubble. Our most reliable valuation measures still match the extremes we observed in 1929, 2000 and the 2020 pre-pandemic high. A retreat to run-of-the-mill valuation norms would require a further loss of 58% in the S&P 500 – from here. We don’t require that outcome, but we absolutely wouldn’t rule it out.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc221117/
 

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EQX 30 min chart: Just filling the upper gap? We shall see......
 

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XLE daily: (XLE short position) I took remaining profits and I'm going flat. I will load up again soon..... It looks like the 20 dma for XLE is going to hold....
 

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SPX daily: It remains above the 10 dma which is Bullish for now..... I currently have NO POSITION! I'm still keeping a close eye on the VIX....
 

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I will be shorting XLE not reducing..... I'm flat going into the weekend.


Mark Hulbert
Energy stocks are in a bubble — and here’s when they’re likely to crash
Last Updated: Nov. 15, 2022 at 3:12 p.m. ET

Research shows that when a sector's trailing two-year return soundly beats the U.S. market average, that sector takes a beating over the next two years

Don’t short energy stocks
It’s important to stress that vulnerability to a crash doesn’t automatically make energy stocks attractive short-sale candidates. Even though prices of these stocks are likely at some point in the next two years to be significantly lower, there’s no assurance that their declines will begin from current prices. On the contrary, the researchers found that sectors that satisfy their bubble criteria typically rise by an additional 30%, on average, before succumbing to the law of gravity.

So even if you’re right in predicting the existence of a bubble, you can still find yourself under water — perhaps deeply — before eventually turning a profit. The safer action would be to reduce exposure to the sector.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...heres-when-theyre-likely-to-crash-11668503652
 

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Still waiting...
Remember the "we are unchanged since Sep 21" line we were talking about in early November. Well, we are still trading at those same levels. This market is still looking for the next directional move...

Inflows into everything
Net flows into global equity funds were positive in the week ending November 16 (+$22.8bn vs -$5bn in the previous week). Strong, positive flows into US equities drove most of the increase. Flows into global fixed income funds were net positive as well (+$4bn vs +$3bn in the previous week). The largest inflows were allocated to high yield, IG credit, and municipal bond funds. (EPFR)

https://themarketear.com/posts/c8dA6gl5At
 

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!AAIIBULL daily and Bear Market rallies: Hmmmm..... The AAIIBULL pattern doesn't mean we have topped. However, one might want to be using a tad more risk management if you are long based on this pattern. The SPX does remain above the 10 dma which is Bullish.
 

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Gold daily: The comments below sounds good! Gold remains above the 10 dma, but still needs to push higher above the 200 dma. We shall see if gold is due another smack down before it gets back above the 200 dma.


Attention Gold Bugs!

Gold is now on week 2 of a new intermediate cycle and quite likely in a new yearly cycle.

Gold has formed a multi year monthly cup and handle patten. The rally out of the ICL has gold approaching the 1800 resistance level. Once gold breaks above the 1800, gold will be in position for a trending move to be sustained.
 

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GOLD/GLD/IAU weekly: All remain above their 10 week ma's. So far this move looks good and remains Bullish! ( But - Note the dollar move)
 

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We shall see: GDX/GDXJ weekly charts..... It does like good..... BUT!

They Don’t Ring a Bell at Bottoms
POSTED ONNOVEMBER 17, 2022 JORDAN ROY-BYRNE CMT, MFTA EDITORIALS, FEATURED


The evidence argues that the cyclical bear market in precious metals is likely over.



We will only know for certain once prices are much higher. Such is the reality of markets. Therefore we need to rely on the weight of the evidence.



The evidence was already building even before prices turned. We noted such in missives in September here and here.



The technicals by themselves make a good case.
https://thedailygold.com/they-dont-ring-a-bell-at-bottoms/
 

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USERX/HUI weekly chart:

SKI Bottom Line: LOL..... It can be hard to understand, but the bottom line is the next Bull Market be getting closer.... ( I posted the SKI chart below) I do "NOT" use this data for trading, but some investors I know "DO" follow Jeff's trading system.

Now, you should easily see that the green 92-96 index line (the index’s back prices) is plunging. If/When USERX soon rises to above that line it’ll reach 3rd resistance. THIS IS NOT YET A SKI BULL MARKET. A SKI bull requires a rise to above the green line, then a decline back below it, and then a rise back above it (ala January 2016, March 2020, and most of the other bull markets since 1974). Yes, it’s possible that the gold stocks will just continue to rise over weeks without a real correction, but that would be a major BEAR market rally. The real bull appears to “SKI-need” a correction into mid-December to go back below the 92-96 index (probably as that green line rises back up to USERX $10) and then a quick rise back above the index’s line as that green line plunges again. Look again at that chart…. Jeff’s expecting to take some profit (soon; reserved for SKIers) on a rise to the 3rd resistance 92-96 index’s “buy” signal and then look for a decline to set-up a REAL SKI-BULL. The Australian chart of its gold charts is approaching the upside target for its Head@Shoulders bottom pattern (i.e, the distance from the Head and each Shoulder, added to the Shoulder’s price of 5000). A real SKI bull market yields 100-500% rises and Jeff will personally take a 40% net worth long position. I strongly urge/encourage you to subscribe to “see” and act upon the approaching outcomes. This is “big-time” and Jeff strongly tries to avoid “hype”….

321gold: Special SKI Report #279 SKI?s Explanation for the Rise by Jeff Kern . . .inc
 

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SKI patterns and Bull Markets: ""IF"" Jeff's patterns/historical data proves to be correct, and USERX moves lower into mid December, then I expect GDX and GDXJ to make higher lows and fill their lower gaps. Again, I said ""IF""

Chart 1: USERX/GDXJ 2016 Bear Market Bottom and start of the SKI Bull

Chart 2 : USERX/GDXJ 2020

Chart 3: USERX/GDXJ 2022
 

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SKI run patterns: 2016 and 2020


"THIS IS NOT YET A SKI BULL MARKET. A SKI bull requires a rise to above the green line, then a decline back below it, and then a rise back above it (ala January 2016, March 2020, and most of the other bull markets since 1974). Yes, it’s possible that the gold stocks will just continue to rise over weeks without a real correction, but that would be a major BEAR market rally.
321gold: Special SKI Report #279 SKI?s Explanation for the Rise by Jeff Kern . . .inc
 

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