Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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GOLD/SLV daily: The DCL looks to be in, but now gold is a tad stretched above the 10 dma. I'm expecting a pullback, but that's just a guess...

We shall see how it plays out, and what the dollar does next with the data coming out tomorrow. The move above the 50dma this early in the daily cycle is Bullish!
 

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What a move by the dollar: Max pain for the Bears that were short the indexes. Close to filling the VIX around 20ish....

By the end of the day I will have no long positions and I’m going to place some short positions. I already added a few positions.
A very good day for those long in TSP accounts....

Selling ALL long positions, and I will be flat except for some new short positions.

I will post some charts after the close. Looks like a wild ride the rest of the day. We shall see if traders take profits before the close. I already did.

Nothing better then trading a Bear Market rally as the shorts are forced to cover!
 
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SPX daily ( During the trading day): The Bear Market pattern is getting closer to completing..... We shall see how it plays out in the days ahead. It still looks like the SPX could move up and tag the 200 dma as the chasers will be coming back in. Waiting on the VIX as it gets closer to the 20ish marker and filling the gap. There is always a chance it will be a higher low, but I still think the VIX will test the 40ish area in the months ahead.

Bottom Line for me: In my opinion this is just another Bear Market rally that will fail in the months ahead. However, there has been SOME REALLY GOOD TRADING the last several months.
 

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Put puke - back with a vengeance
"Never buy protection when you must..." is playing out again and now all those expensive puts must be sold. This leads to the feedback loop of people reaching the conclusion "hedges only cost money", so when the set up to buy protection becomes attractive again, the majority of people will have given up on hedges...
 

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As I have pointed out many times before: I'm waiting to see if lower highs for SPX and higher lows for VIX continues.


VIX daily and higher lows. Topping pattern almost complete. Waiting to see if the VIX will make a higher low. If so we are getting closer to the next top. Looking to start shorting XLE.
 

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VIX knew
One of our main topics over past weeks has been the muted VIX. The crowd has been talking the bearish talk, but VIX started signalling less fear some 2 weeks ago, especially as VIX fell despite the SPX retracing that last move before the shock therapy yesterday. Last time VIX was here, SPX traded at 4150....although that is not how vol trading works, but people will start pushing this logic soon.
 

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Will this put selling pressure on the stock market???

The great crypto unwind
 

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Shorts carried out on stretchers in a pic
Great chart via Goldman's Flood that needs little additional commenting. Shorts have evaporated quickly and are at March 2020 lows according to him
https://themarketear.com/
 

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SPX/VIX daily charts: Waiting on the PPI numbers to be announced tomorrow morning. I have a few small positions. The VIX could fill the gap or maybe make a higher low. We shall see how it plays out. Giving the edge to the Bulls.

Still watching XLE for a setup to short.....
 

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XLE daily and very overvalued...... It also has been printing lots of Black Candles as the insiders continue to sell energy shares to the MOMO/FOMO crowd.
 

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We shall see how it plays outs

Bearish Reversal

Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Monday but then went on to print a bearish reversal.

A new on day 22 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks currently being in a daily uptrend. However, stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. A break below the 3911.79 level can be used as a stop. If stocks find support at the rising 10 day MA and break back above the 3911.79 level, then that could be used to go long once again.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/11/14/bearish-reversal-6/
 

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Some PPI charts: The Fed helped in the spike based on this data. Now can they fix it? Low rates and a huge increase in their balance sheet. It did create lots of jobs....


Bottom Line: As a general rule..... Rates go up and the market and PPI go down. In my opinion the Fed still has work to d..... We shall see how it plays out.
 

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We have never had more insider selling of energy shares in their entire history.


XLE, an exchange-traded fund of large-cap energy shares, has experienced intense insider selling of all of its top components throughout November 2022. XLE is likely to lose half of its value within a year so I have been gradually selling it short at 93 and above.

Kalplan

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 

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VIX daily chart: I be warching the action too.....

We are considering VIX hedges for the first time since August
Everything that is "protection" has come down hard and we are starting to get interested. To go outright short cash equities here is not a trade for us - we would want to see an attack and possible overshoot of the 4100 level - but volatility is different. Let's examine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link
 

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XLE daily: Long ERY - A short-term 2X short trade for XLE. I don't hold leveraged positions very long..... Mainly for day-trades......

XLE is BT the 10 dma, and it looks like it might hold..... I look for oil and energy shares to come down now that the election is over. The same goes for stocks.



SevenSentinels Retweeted
CNBC
@CNBC
'Big Short' Michael Burry on his current positioning: 'You have no idea how short I am'
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1592905374797074437?cxt=HHwWisC4mfa_kZssAAAA
 

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