Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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"Here is the Inflation data for the cave. It looks like it is going to be DARK!"

Yes Sir: I love trading Bear Markets now..... I hated it in 2000, and 2008, but I learned some hard lessons that are making me money now. Lots of problems going forward right now..... Great for trading as many new investors have NO IDEA what to do. Buying the dip to early in Bear Markets is rough on your retirement account.
 

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I am going to drop this here. Feel free to distribute as you see fit.

It kind of let's everyone know exactly what we are up against as retail investors.

This is a compilation of a lot of research by a lot of very smart people starting it Feb. 2021 (I do not claim to be one).

You may find it a bit one-stock centric, but it is because that was where the initial issues manifested and retail investors have been piling on ever since (to include Direct Registration of Shares [DRS]).

https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg
 
Benny7563 said:
I am going to drop this here. Feel free to distribute as you see fit.

It kind of let's everyone know exactly what we are up against as retail investors.

This is a compilation of a lot of research by a lot of very smart people starting it Feb. 2021 (I do not claim to be one).



You may find it a bit one-stock centric, but it is because that was where the initial issues manifested and retail investors have been piling on ever since (to include Direct Registration of Shares [DRS]).

https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg
Click to expand...

The insiders are selling their personal stock shares and retail investors are still buying the dips. BTD works great in a Bull market, not so well in a Bear Market. Keep in mind I’m buying and selling all the time with a mix of short and long positions, but I’m a trader NOT an investor.
 
VXY weekly: ( S Fund) Well, we got the BT of the 200 wma...... We shall see how it plays out..... A bounce, an undercut, or are we headed to a lower low! I will leave the guessing to others. I like the odds on this trade, but that doesn't mean it will be a winner.

29 weeks have pasted since getting the confirmed sell signal for VXF on the weekly chart. A move below the 20 week ma is a MT confirmed trending sell signal for me. That doesn't mean I will not get whipsawed in a Bull Market. But in a market trending down and making lower highs it's time to be careful, if you like to BTD. A move below the 10 wma is a warning signal. I also trade both ways in a market like this one. Impossible to trade TSP in a market like this one. For those up YTD and are trading TSP funds, it's more about being lucky with your timing in my opinion. Two moves a month before 12:00ish.... LOL.... Yes, Luck is the word I would use in a market like this one. Whipsaw City! My test continues.....
 

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GDX/NUGT: Well, the gold miners sure helped my returns this week. We shall see if GDX can close above the 200 dma next week.

Have a nice weekend. Heading to the range to shoot my new Vudoo!
 

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SPY weekly: ( C fund) A very ugly week!

SPY remains below its 100 week ma.....
 

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SPX/Prime lending rate: One should be looking at the Fed for some of this mess we are in!
 

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10 year: In my opinion the 10 year will out perform stocks for the next several years.
 

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"The scary part is, there is no end/relief in sight to this down trend"

Just more pain and whipsaws in my opinion.

That appears to be what some stock market holders are worried about! Still, it's never straight down. One should use caution if trading in this market only from the long side and unable to hedge.


The 2000 SPX Bear Market pattern is on the chart below. Plenty of rips and dips to trade. However, the overall trend remained down, and we could be about to repeat.

I suspect the current Bear Market will be close to this historical model on the chart below. Yes, I think we are currently in a Bear Market..... We continue to make lower highs below important MA's.
 

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David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 10
Some nifty math. When you strip out of the CPI all the items that are linked to energy (air fares, moving/freight, rental cars, delivery services, new and used vehicles), the core was +0.36% and the YoY steadied near 4%. The truth beneath the veneer.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 10
The Bank of Canada's 2022 Financial System Review is replete with evidence of a gigantic Canadian housing and mortgage debt bubble. And yet, Tiff Macklem is pledging to raise rates aggressively. Zero chance this ends well.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 10
Make a new plan, Stan... just set yourself free. Tip of the hat to Druckenmiller: "I think it's highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run." Not one "highly" -- but two!

#RosenbergResearch
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Jun 2
Stocks suck.

Bonds are terrible.

So it makes sense that the general U.S. consumer has never been more pessimistic about prospects for the two markets.
 

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The GS "Sentiment Indicator" does NOT scream BUY
Very different reading vs when we touched the lows in May. Just saying...this might not be the bottom you waited years to buy...
https://themarketear.com/
 

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VXF monthly and weekly: ( S fund) Yes, it was very stretched above the 200 week MA.
 

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Face The Nation
@FaceTheNation
·
3h
Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian says the “darkest” scenario is if inflation continues and we end up in a recession, “That will be tragic if that were to happen because, again, it is the most vulnerable segment of the population that gets hit hard.”
https://twitter.com/elerianm


Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
11h
The global #economy/markets' focus this week is the #Fed's policy meeting
Its importance has been accentuated by last week's bad #inflation surprises, guaranteeing a 50 bps hike, fueling talk of 75, and adding to worries about recession risk
None of this is comforting for markets



Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Jun 11
.
@WSJ
:"Gasoline Prices Reach[ing] $5 a Gallon Nationwide for the First Time"
This is a leading example of the twin hit to households/economy of high #inflation:
Directly via the higher price of goods/services and indirectly by destroying/redirecting demand
https://wsj.com/articles/gasoline-p...r-the-first-time-11654910506?mod=hp_lead_pos1



Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Jun 11
.
@WSJ
:"Gasoline Prices Reach[ing] $5 a Gallon Nationwide for the First Time"
This is a leading example of the twin hit to households/economy of high #inflation:
Directly via the higher price of goods/services and indirectly by destroying/redirecting demand
https://wsj.com/articles/gasoline-p...r-the-first-time-11654910506?mod=hp_lead_pos1



Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Jun 10
One of the clips from this morning's interaction on
@SquawkCNBC
with
@BeckyQuick
.

Thank you Becky for the conversation.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=j1yH5LZQyeM

@cnbc
#economy #markets #inflation #fed #federalreserve #centralbanks #EconTwitter
youtube.com
Fed Chair Powell is 'losing total control' of inflation narrative,...
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queen’s College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to react to May's higher-
 

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SPY/VXF weekly data: ( C Fund/S Fund) Still looking for an ICL/YCL to trade. Cycle lows haven't been easy to spot.....
 

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VXF weekly: Next week will be week 30 since the confirmed sell signal for VXF. A MT confirmed sell signal is move below the 20 wma on a weekly closing price. It still hasn't closed above the 20 week ma in 29 weeks. I have been whipsawed a few times....
 

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