Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Miner Volatility
Posted on January 15, 2022

The status of the daily Miners cycle is not clear. Closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday indicates the day 16 hosted an early DCL. But then the Miners lost the 50 day MA on Thursday and formed a swing high on Friday.


A close below the 10 day MA will signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline. However, the Miners formed a bullish reversal off the 10 day MA on Friday. The Miners are currently in daily uptrend. If they form a swing low and close back above the 50 day MA then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. If this occurs then we will label day 16 as an early DCL.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/


Morris took profits. Me too, buy I'm buying back my position. We shall see how this next DCL plays out. We closed above the 10 sma on Friday, but will we see a smack down next week.

 

[robo]

Gold Lagging Inflation
Adam Hamilton
Archives
Jan 14, 2022

Government officials are blaming this crazy inflation on supply-chain snarls, which is pure misdirection. As legendary American economist Milton Friedman warned way back in 1963, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." When money supplies are ramped faster than economies' goods and services, relatively-more money competing for relatively-less things to spend it on bids up their prices.

Central banks directly control money supplies. In the past 22.3 months since March 2020's pandemic-lockdown stock panic, the Fed has mushroomed its balance sheet an insane 110.8% higher or $4,607b! By directly monetizing $3,187b of US Treasuries and $1,243b of mortgage-backed bonds, the Fed has effectively more than doubled the US-dollar monetary base! Such extreme excess is wildly-unprecedented.


All those trillions of dollars the Fed conjured out of thin air to buy bonds were quickly spent, injecting that vast deluge of new money into the real economy. With monetary growth greatly exceeding underlying economic growth, prices of almost everything are surging to reflect vast oceans of new dollars sloshing around. Except gold's, history's premier inflation hedge has largely slept through this money-printing orgy.


But regardless of what government statisticians claim to keep their political bosses happy, Americans running households and businesses know exactly what their own real-world costs are doing. My wife and I are shocked at how much more money it takes to maintain our family's standard of living. I've talked with dozens of friends and heard from hundreds of subscribers about inflation, and they all feel the same way.

Jan 14, Gold Lagging Inflation Adam Hamilton 321gold ...inc ...s

 

[robo]

Interesting and I agree. I just retired 2-weeks ago & planning to roll-over most of my TSP to Self-Managed IRA (not sure which & welcome ideas/tips), but leave perhaps 20% to 25% in TSP for the meanwhile to use G-fund while still able to move it given drastic stupid limits in/out of CSIF some. Thank you both Tom and Robo for commenting on this.

(welcome ideas/tips) LOL..... I will give you some of my lessons learned. I lost a shitload of money at first when I went to an account with unlimited moves. (Over trading with Leverage)

I like Vanguard now for a couple of reasons.

First - They do NOT allow you to trade leveraged funds.

Second - They do NOT allow you to trade short funds.

I have a different account for trading and yes I sometimes buy leveraged 2X indexes, but the positions are usually much smaller. ( examples - UWM, SSO, JNUG, NUGT) Trading is like gambling in my opinion, and even though I'm pretty good at it I sometimes get smacked down, and the house wins BIG!. That is why one should keep your trades small, and NEVER bet to much on a single trade.

I have a trading account at Vanguard, and mainly trade VTI. Sure I trade another things, but keep in mind this is an account for LT retirement funds and one should be careful with investment choices. I learned a hard lesson when I moved money to a trading account. Back then the trades were not free, but I started over trading in some sectors. I learned quickly to just trade the Total Stock Market, and now I have unlimited moves anytime during the trading day. Boy, did I do much better in my YTD returns. I still trade other sectors, but I don't take as much risk with my Vanguard account. If I can get 10% a year return I'm VERY HAPPY. However, that is harder then it sounds. Why? Because I NEVER EVER place a trade over 10% of my account balance, and most of the time it is less.

My point and the bottom line: Be careful moving into an account that you have unlimited moves. Also, NEVER use leverage when using funds in a retirement account.

VTI daily chart below: Anyway, I like to use VTI at Vanguard and keep it simple Brother. I'm in or out just like the TSPer's, but use VTI instead of the TSP funds. I use TSP for the G Fund. I'm currently trying to move money around in TSP using my system, because my son asked me to. He is a GS13 with a nice size TSP account. My advice to him was - do the matching, max out a Roth IRA at Vanguard, and then max out TSP if you can for the tax break since he is single. However, I'm trying it to see how it works out.

I moved 15% into the S Fund Friday so I got the closing price. I bought at Vanguard too, during the trading day. My price at Vanguard was much cheaper so we shall see how this plays out. Like Tom, I hated to try and move money in the TSP. It's great for investors and is not meant to be used for trading.

So that is what I did and good luck to you.

 

[robo]

I bought VXF ( Like the S Fund) at Vanguard during the trading day on Friday, and I can sell whenever I want, as often as I want, anytime during the trading day.

A high risk counter-trend trade based on a oversold, lower BB tag. I took a 15% position using TSP funds, ( which is a small account these days) and a even smaller position at Vanguard. The price I got was just lucky, but close to the low of the day. I was waiting for a back test of the lows.... So that worked out this time. I still have NO IDEA what VXF will do next week. The chart looks ugly and it remains in a downtrend. NO buy signal from my system. This is a ST trade based on other indicators and not my trend trading system. That system remains in a 100% cash position. The 15% move Friday is gambling, but with odds I like for a win. Like counting cards when playing Blackjack, but that doesn't mean you have a winner. It just improves your odds for a win.

So a few tips based on what I did with my TSP funds. My trading accounts is a much different story!

Dear robo,

The following order executed on 01/14/2022 at 1:17 PM, Eastern time:

Account:
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Market
Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
Quantity: 25 share(s)
Price:* $170.44

 

[robo]

In BUY territory. Close to "EXTREME BUY"...
The Goldman Sachs "Sentiment Indicator" measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12 months. Readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.

 

[robo]

LOL..... Maybe to some..... One thing I do agree with..... It's what the Fed does, not what it says, that investors should be watching for the next several months. The insiders continue to sell.

Probably the most important chart in the world
DM normalization is expected to move along multiple fronts as rising policy rates will be accompanied by balance sheet contraction. DM central banks have added nearly $12 trillion to their balance sheets over the past two years and JPM expect a roughly $2 trillion runoff over 2022-23.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Cycles - YCL: 22 months since the last yearly cycle low. Note the historical data of the 50 sma on the monthly. If that doesn't concern you as an investor then you are not paying attention to valuations.

 

[robo]

Cycles: It all sounds good, but my magic 8 ball is broken. So we shall see how it plays out and I will just trade what happens in real-time.

Dollar update: Crash coming?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzOsBHHhMaU

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

 

[robo]

The Fed is set to become a net seller of MBS and spreads are likely to widen

The Fed has started tapering its net additions of $40bn a month in MBS for most of QE4 and is only set to net add $20bn in the January reinvestment period. They are on schedule to end net purchases after the February reinvestment period. JPM: "Our current base case has the Fed reinvesting all paydowns into MBS from March through June, and first letting MBS run off the balance sheet in July. Fed holdings of mortgages began the year at $2.60tr, we expect a peak of $2.62tr in February and at YE22 the holdings to be $2.47tr (down 5% y/y). By the end of 2023 we expect the holdings to decline a further $361bn (down 19% from the peak)".

 

[robo]

Fed - time to normalize

Morgan Stanley's Wilson remains pone of the big bears out there and expects a correction of 10-20% during H1 2022. One of the similarities he sees is the Fed "set up" in the 1940s. He writes: "It was a very similar set-up to today with spiking inflation forcing the Fed's hand to start to normalize extraordinary monetary accommodation. The equity market took notice by adjusting the risk premium sharply higher, much like we are seeing today with the highest-valued stocks. Our view is that this could also happen to the S&P 500 as the Fed begins to act. If so, it's anyone's guess how high ERPs can rise but 350bp seems like a low estimate if the markets decide it's time to adjust for a new regime." Worried Wilson remains worried...
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

A ugly gap down for stocks this morning as the dollar gaps up. We shall if buyers come in or it scares others to sell. The SPY looks to gap down around 1% at the open, so VXF will probably be more. I will post charts after the open.....
https://www.investing.com/currencies/us-dollar-index


Gold about flat, but Silver is on the move.

 

[robo]

Rates: Will they matter?

(Will) rates matter?
The short term gap between NASDAQ and the 10 year is rather wide here (again). If "they" start to care about rates properly, tech could be in for another round of beating...

 

[robo]

DéJà Vu All Over Again
Jan. 18, 2022 7:36 AM

The financial markets will consistently behave similarly to whatever they have done in the past under nearly-matching conditions.

There are numerous sectors today which will likely gain while large-cap growth shares keep making lower highs for two or three years.

We have stealthily entered a meaningful rotation out of large-cap deflation-loving U.S. growth shares into small- and mid-cap inflation-loving global value shares.
Most investors are either treating 2022 as though it will be an approximate repeat of 2021 or else they believe that the investing world is totally different than it has ever been in the past. Both of these expectations are seriously flawed. The financial markets will consistently behave similarly to whatever they have done in the past under nearly-matching conditions. Early 2022 has numerous parallels to early 2000, early 1973, and the late summer of 1929. In addition, the past year which was 2021 was surprisingly analogous to 1999-2000, 1972, and 1928-1929. Therefore, what will occur over the next few years can best be determined by examining the market's behavior during 2000-2003, 1972-1975, and 1929-1932. This is especially true since so few investors are doing likewise, thereby making it probable that you will come out far ahead by studying and applying these valuable parallels.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...urce=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart

 

[robo]

LOL..... I have tried this more then once..... It always looks easy "AFTER the FACT" and the market has bottomed with a nice bounce.....

Two Rules for Catching a “Falling Knife”
Jeff Clark | Jan 18, 2022 | Market Minute | 4 min read

Most traders are familiar with the cliché Wall Street warning of “don’t catch a falling knife.”

You see, buying into a stock that’s falling sharply is generally a bad idea. While picking the bottom of a stock can lead to massive gains… if you buy at the wrong time, it can also lead to big losses. And, frankly, most of the time… that’s what happens.

But there are times when the knife is so close to the ground – where the risk of further loss is minimal, and where the potential gains are so enormous – that it makes sense to reach out and grab it.

Today, I’m going to show you how to find these setups…

Let’s start by looking at an example.

Take a look at this chart of Lululemon Athletica (LULU), the sports apparel manufacturer known best for its line of yoga clothes…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/two-rules-for-catching-a-falling-knife/

 

[robo]

VXF daily: An undercut of the 170.29 marker..... Waiting to see if buyers show up....

I added a few more shares of VXF at Vanguard as we back tested (BT) the lows 170.00ish.... If I wanted to add to the S Fund it's hard to tell what the closing price would be.

Dear

The following order executed on 01/18/2022 at 9:35 AM, Eastern time:

Account:
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Limit
Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
Quantity: 10 share(s)
Price:* $170.00

 

[robo]

VXF daily: The move down continues. A possible ICL or maybe a YCL coming our way.... Around a (- 16%) move down since printing the high marker of 199.76 for this index. It be very close to the S Fund.....

Bottom Line: The Trend remains down. No "Easy Money Monday" this week unless you were short....

Long - VXF and GDXJ.

 

[robo]

VXF 2 hour chart: You can see how VXF continues to trend lower and below the 10 sma on the 2 hour chart. Still NO BUY signal unless you are counter-trend trading like I'm doing. LOL..... Catching the falling knife.

 

[robo]

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Orders will ship free starting in late January

https://www.covidtests.gov/

 

[robo]

IWM daily: The move down for small caps continues..... IWM down around 15% since printing the 243.72 high marker in November. A look at the weekly too....

IWM weekly: Week 9 since IWM moved below the 10 sma on the weekly chart. It has not been easy trying to trade small caps the last 12 months.

 

[robo]

SPY daily: Moves down to, or back testing the 100 sma on the daily chart, have been good buy points in the past. Watching to see how this move down plays out.

I placed a trade based on the daily pattern that SPY would bounce. A high risk counter-trend trade, but I liked the odds. We shall see if it turns into a trending move to trade or fails to confirm. LOL.... The SPY could also just keep moving lower...

Long VXF and GDXJ.