Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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IWM daily: IWM is down almost 20% from its November high..... Not what Da-Bulls want to see..... Wait until the Big names in the SPY start selling off.

Bottom Line: The trend for small caps remains DOWN and the chart looks ugly. ICL coming? We shall see....
 

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SPY monthly: A move down to the 50 sma on the monthly has above average odds of happening in the next few years. But when is the question? We should know more in the weeks ahead if we are moving into a YCL as this one remains very stretched above the mean. As you can see by looking at the monthly chart we are FAR from oversold using that data. However, I trade the daily as do most of you.


SPY daily: The 200 sma is up next!

Bottom Line: The trend remains down.

Some are probably ready to "Throw The Damn Towel"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfAYz6p-mlw
 

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Bullitt said:
Nasdaq-100 below 200 DMA first time since April 2020. The beloved index that brought so many pajama traders joy during the pandemic is now ripe for one of those Hindenburg omens to kick in.
Click to expand...
It’s always easy BTD until it’s NOT! Some are probably getting a tad worried.

Moving into an ICL or a YCL usually causes extra selling due to the fear factor. Especially if one is heavily invested or using leverage. We shall see in the days ahead what kind of sell off this is.
 
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So, if one rolled over nearly all of his TSP into a Vanguard account, then one could make free trades, right? But, is there a dollar limit on how big a trade can be? In the TSP, I very often move my entire balance with an IFT. Also, if someone wants to make numerous trades in a day without worrying about settled funds, then you'd need a day-trading account, no? If this January has shown me anything, it's that I'm much too limited very often.
 
I don't believe you can have a margin account in a normal IRA so the 2 day settlement rule would be an issue to unlimited trades. Still, that means maybe 15 "all or nothing" type trades per month?
 
rangerray said:
So, if one rolled over nearly all of his TSP into a Vanguard account, then one could make free trades, right? But, is there a dollar limit on how big a trade can be? In the TSP, I very often move my entire balance with an IFT. Also, if someone wants to make numerous trades in a day without worrying about settled funds, then you'd need a day-trading account, no? If this January has shown me anything, it's that I'm much too limited very often.
Click to expand...

Tom has that correct Brother. However, as a trader I would NEVER move all of my funds at once on a single trade. I have a Roth broker account at Vanguard.

Example You have 100k in your account:

This is how your balance would look.

Funds available to trade 100k:
Funds available to withdraw 100k: These funds have cleared.

You move 100k to VXF on 1-20-22 and sell the same day. You now have funds that you must wait two days to clear. However, you can still buy one more time.

You can buy VXF back again on the 23rd, but if you sell before the funds clear on the 24th from the first trade it's a free ride and you get your first warning.

So, you can BUY, SELL and BUY again all in the same day if you "STARTED" the day and all your funds were settled funds, but now you must wait 2 days for the first trade to settle before selling again or you get a warning. There is a move to change it to one day, and it might pass soon. Brother moving 100% of you money on a single move is a good thing in a Bull Market, but during a deeper correction or a Bear Market those types of moves can be an account killer. There are folks right now here on the tracker that are down around (-10%). Sure they will get their money back if we are still in a Bull market and the market bounces back. But what if it doesn't or folks sell just before a huge bounce.

VXF is now down close to (-19%) since its high in November. I posted what happened to me the first few years I went to Vanguard on an another post. The result was I lost a shitload of money from over trading, but learned fairly quick about over trading and risk management.

I have a Roth Brokerage account at Vanguard. So I don't have to worry about RMD's or paying taxes on money I withdraw. I use TSP mainly for the G Fund.
Bottom line: Unlimited moves are very good thing in a Bull Market, but one has to be careful over trading in a market like this one.

Call Vanguard Brother and they will answer all your questions. You will need a broker type account to trade anytime during the trading day.

So look at the chart below of VXF and tell me when you would have made these 100% moves Brother.

I like Vanguard and unlimited moves, but I have a trading system and indicators I use for buy and sell signals. I also use Risk Management..... I told you when I first got unlimited moves I went from the frying pan right into the fire. Sometimes having only two moves will save you money.

Maybe you could move say 10k to Vanguard and see how it works out. That is what I did when I started out, and lost money with unlimited moves. My point is what type of system will you use at Vanguard to make these trades. If you have one that is working well then you should do ok Brother.

Take Care and call Vanguard.

I also have two account at TD Ameritrade for trading. One is a Roth IRA and the other is just a normal account. Lots of headaches with that account when it comes tax time.
 

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VTI and the 50 sma on the weekly for LT investing in a TSP account. Not something I do, but a option for those that don't like to trade. VTI is the total stock market. A move above the 50 sma is a confirmed buy signal and a move below is a sell. An option instead of trading. Will all that said, there are some pretty darn good paid services here at TSP Talk that will help you make money using your TSP funds if you are not sure what to do. Keep in mind, ever year CAN NOT be a big winner, but overall it will help you grow your retirement account. I sure used some of them when i first started out, and watched a few folks on the tracker. Some of them are gone now. I'm just not cut out to make 100% moves on any single trade these days. Been there and done that! LOL.... I'm almost 70 now, and just don't want to take much risk.

This would be a mix of C Fund and S Fund.

Futures are getting smashed down again.....
 

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NASDAQ - most oversold since the corona panic
NASDAQ futs closed below the 200 day moving average. Haven't seen that in a long time. RSI is the most oversold since the corona crash. Not a pretty close as short gamma continues reinforcing all moves and the CTA guys are happy adding to the most recent net short NASDAQ position.
https://themarketear.com/
 

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SPX daily: Yes Sir, the 200 sma on the daily be up next!

SPX - approaching the 200 day
SPX closed below the 100 day yesterday and is now marching towards the 200 day moving average. RSI has not been this low since the corona panic. Late day px action was brutal as short gamma, CTA sellers and shitty liquidity are all perfect ingredients for exaggerating volatility.
 

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IWM daily: It could hit the (-20%) lower point from its November high this morning. We shall see how it plays out as sellers continue to show up.

Bottom Line: The move down for small caps continues....
 

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Hmmmm..... Watching IWM and VXF: Close to a Bear Market so the talking heads should be bring this up soon. IWM is an index that is watched closely.....

What Is a Bear Market?
A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
 

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Just close your eyes and buy, or different this time?
Every dip & correction feels scary in it's own way. There is almost always some "new" macro or market-internal variable associated with a sell-off that makes investors nervous to buy. This current "correction" does however feel even more different than previous ones. Let's examine the idiosyncrasies in this sell-off.

Retail capitulation
JPM QDS team tells us that the retail investor net sold $53mm, with $400mm...
https://themarketear.com/
 
SPY daily and the 200 sma on the daily: Getting closer to the 200 sma..... Waiting to see if we get a smash down at the close or the 200 sma holds.
 

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VXF daily: Close to the 20% down from the highs, but VXF is getting a small bounce. We shall see if it can hold....
 

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VXF daily: Close enough to call it a (-20%) move down from its high..... The Best six months is having some trouble......

So if you had unlimited moves how many times did you buy on the way down, and where on the chart. We could probably call this day 6 of the Bloodbath phase heading into an ICL.

Bottom Line: VXF remains in a downtrend, and sometimes cash is the BEST position.
 

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Suddenly put love is huge
People hate puts when they should love them, and love them when they should hate them. Current love for puts is huge. We have said it many times before and will say it again: "buy protection when you can, not when you must".
https://themarketear.com/

Buy-the-Dip: meet the massive paper profits...
Some interesting takes from the always excellent Privorotsky at the GS London trading desk. First, he notes that CTA trigger level in equities are now in play and are likely to start having an impact. Second more importantly, shall we trough out all these "prime brokerage positioning indicators" as we are now running into a completely different supply / demand dynamic? GS: "Despite readings in our PB of gross and nets being low, tech exposure having been reduced it feels that more long term holders are trying to protect big paper profits accrued during the pandemic. Market participants have been conditioned to an environment where dips are shallow, rates are reflexive and at the first signs of weakness the central bank floods the market with liquidity".
 

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Fed is great...but not at managing volatility
Fed's BS just printed another new all time high. That is supposed to stabilize stuff, but VVIX continues refusing to be "managed" by Fed. Fed has distorted volatility markets for a long time and the end "product" isn't looking great, but that is something for the bigger picture longer term view.
https://themarketear.com/
 

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