Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

VIX daily: Moving back down at the open.....

VIX has squeezed...but have you seen VVIX?
VVIX is back to late Sep levels.

Back then VIX was somewhat higher...around 23!

We are not saying VIX should hit 23, but the constant bid in VVIX remains very much alive.

 

[robo]

SPY daily: The SPY closed below the 3 ema and the 10 sma on the daily. Tomorrow is "Free Lunch Friday" and then we have "Easy Money Monday". We shall see if we get a gap up and a possible close back above the 10 sma on the daily chart. BTD still remains in play for many.....

Bears giving up big time...
...but ideally we want the last bears to throw in the towel before anything bigger can occur to the downside.

We saw one of the bigger bears shut down his fund today, Russell Clark (more here).

This is some of the stuff you see after huge melt ups and is part of the puzzle, but we need more bears to give up...
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Some of the sentiment data I track. I DO NOT TRADE based on this data.

NAAIM moved down a bit.... From 107ish to 103ish....

For those that track this data. We shall see if the pattern repeats and a stock pullback is getting close.

https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

 

[robo]

A closer look

 

[robo]

SPY weekly: Investors should be using the weekly data and as you can see the trend remains up!

SPY trending above the 3 ema and the 10 sma on the weekly chart. This is week 5 since moving above the 3 ema.....

 

[robo]

SPY daily with 2 hours to go: "Free Lunch Friday" looks good and the SPY is back above the 3 ema and the 10 sma on the daily chart. Is the SPY headed to new ATH's next? We shall see..... The BTDer's remain in control of the SPY!

 

[robo]

Seasonality - Sounds Good! But show me a best six months period on the chart below where the SPX was this far stretched above the 200 month sma. LOL..... There isn't one..... In this market historical data doesn't seem to matter. Well, not yet anyway.


With that said the Trend remains up....
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Who do you trust?
Bond volatility continues surging while VIX has reverted to discounting rather calm markets.

Do you trust bonds or equity people? Can both be right, or is this setting up for a late year mean reversion trade (again)?

 

[robo]

SPY daily: Daily Cycle data.....




Stocks Waiting on Bullish Follow Through
While stocks formed a swing low on Friday, they did not deliver bullish follow through on Monday.

If stocks broke above he day 27 high of 4718.50, that would have shifted the odds of stocks entering a melt-up phase. However, stocks closed lower on the day. Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Any bearish follow through should send stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks should break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 and turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. This would allow stocks to backtest the 4545.85 breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. Which would set stocks up to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/15/stocks-waiting-on-bullish-follow-through/

 

[robo]

COT data: Watching ES/JY and TY - HMMMMM........

Current Commitments of Traders Charts

 

[robo]

Seasonality remains a hot topic! We are in the best 6 months......

Tis the season
Is upside still the main pain trade? Seasonality remains very supportive.

A few boring days and then the Thanksgiving bull, followed by the Santa rally?

Last chart shows the bigger picture of all indexes.

https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

GDP: Who cares about that?

During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.

“That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...e-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

SPY daily: Daily Cycle data.....




Stocks Waiting on Bullish Follow Through
While stocks formed a swing low on Friday, they did not deliver bullish follow through on Monday.

If stocks broke above he day 27 high of 4718.50, that would have shifted the odds of stocks entering a melt-up phase. However, stocks closed lower on the day. Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Any bearish follow through should send stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks should break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 and turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. This would allow stocks to backtest the 4545.85 breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. Which would set stocks up to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/15/stocks-waiting-on-bullish-follow-through/

Hi Robo... once again awesome charts and observations. Wish I could give you more reputation points, but I get message that I must spread out the point giving. Ughh..
I did like your charts and find your comments very informative. What TSI settings did you use on your first chart at post 2549? I tried to mimic but default didn't work. TIA. :smile:

 

[robo]

What TSI settings did you use on your first chart at post 2549?

I think it's 13,13,7 but not sure. That is a free chart from likesmoney, and I call him the cycle dude in some of my posts.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/09/stocks-form-a-swing-high/

I don't use the TSI indicator for trading, but do monitor it when it gets oversold/overbought, and we are deep into a daily cycle. I posted it on my VTI chart below.

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:true_strength_index

TSI (True Strength Index) Indicator Explained and How to Use It

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlE-5lxOjIQ

I posted one on my charts with the "True Strength Index (TSI)" on the chart. (13,13,7)

It could be used as an early warning indicator, but I like to use the 3 ema for early warning. However, RSI/TSI, etc.... have their uses....

Take Care and have a nice day!

 

[robo]

VTI daily: A closer look at the 3 ema and the (TSI)

VTI is still crawling along to 10 sma on the daily chart. Trending above the 10 sma on the daily is a hold long positions for me. I use VTI at Vanguard in my Roth IRA's.

 

[robo]

SPY daily: The Fed continues to add about 90 billion a week.....

Heading into the last hour and all looks well!

Looks like we are headed to another new ATH......

Bottom Line: the Trend remains up....

SPX monthly and some Xmas rallies to remember: ( Second chart) This time does look different as the money just keeps flowing into the market!

For the record: I trade using the daily data, not this historical data I just posted. I have NO IDEA what will happen next, but what I do know is all Bubbles POP! Since I trade both ways I don't really care what happens. I will just trade what is happening in real-time and NOT what I think will happen.

 

[robo]

VIX daily: The VIX under 15ish pattern remains in play.

 

[robo]

SPY daily with 2 hours to go: Working on another ATH or will it be a lower high? We shall see.......

Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up!

 

[robo]

"It's the 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year"

See chart and comments at the link below.


"Still, I find that tracking the number of signals over certain time periods has a great deal of value at forecasting increasing volatility. The history of the Nasdaq Composite over the past couple of decades is a good example of this. This week saw the index trigger its 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year. In the past, this degree of persistent dispersion has been a consistent precursor to corrections or bear markets in the index."

The Fasten Seat Belt Sign Just Lit Up

jessefelder
November 17, 2021

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/17/the-fasten-seat-belt-sign-just-lit-up/

Speaking of Volatility......

VIV daily chart and the move under 15ish pattern: It remains in play.... We will hit 25ish in the weeks ahead? Don't know. However, I have a small position of VXX for a hedge to protect my VTI position. My VTI position is small too this late in the daily cycle.

For the record: I "DO NOT" use this type of data for trading, but read all the free stuff I can get from Jesse Felder

 

[robo]

VTI daily with RSI/TSI and VXX: Added TSI due to some using oscillators for trading/making moves. I don't, but I do monitor them.