Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

More on November Buyers! So for all of the years looked at how many were at an extreme like we are currently in. NONE.... Not that it matters to me since I trade the trend and it remains UP! You know, apples to apples type comparing of data. I wonder how the SPX did in November of 1929. That is about where we are now, but I still think the current market might be a tad more overbought. I know, this is nothing like 1929...... It's different this time. Still, my point was apples to apples should be used when comparing historical data. At least that is how I try to do it.

Remember November?
November is the 3rd largest inflow month. And it kicks-off the absolutely strongest stretch on inflow months of the season...some big months coming up.


Seasonality Bonanza
Just sit back and enjoy as seasonality kicks in? The problem we could be facing is that even the bears are referring to the positive seasonality pattern. Sentimentrader writes:

41.8% of all years saw a drawdown of LESS THAN -1% (a dip).

85.1% of all years saw a drawdown of LESS THAN -5% (a pullback).

95.5% of all years saw a drawdown of LESS THAN -10% (a correction).

(chart since 1953).

 

[robo]

I have NO IDEA how the rest of the year will play out. In fact, I don't really care since I trade what is happening and not what I think will happen.

SPY daily: Another new ATH today and the trend remains UP!

 

[robo]

I Bonds! This tells me bank rates are headed higher next year.

The I-Bond rate starting on November 1, 2021 is 7.12% as someone else had accurately calculated and which I cited in a previous update.

I currently DO NOT own any I Bonds.


The rate for I Bonds which are purchased today or any time over the next six months will be 7.12% for six months and all older I Bonds will establish this inflation component for six.

Kaplan
https://twitter.com/truecontrarian?lang=en



What interest will I get if I buy an I bond now?
The composite rate for I bonds issued from November 2021 through April 2022 is 7.12 percent. This rate applies for the first six months you own the bond.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm#now

How much in I bonds can I buy for myself?
In a calendar year, you can acquire:

up to $10,000 in electronic I bonds in TreasuryDirect
up to $5,000 in paper I bonds using your federal income tax refund
Two points:

The limits apply separately, meaning you could acquire up to $15,000 in I bonds in a calendar year
Bonds you buy for yourself and bonds you receive as gifts or via transfers count toward the limit. Two exceptions:
If a bond is transferred to you due to the death of the original owner, the amount doesn't count toward your limit
If you own a paper bond issued before 2008, you can convert it to an electronic bond in your account in TreasuryDirect regardless of the amount of the bond. (The annual limit before 2008 was greater than today's limit of $10,000.)
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm#myself

 

[robo]

Investors Are Back in Full Risk On Mode
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-11-03 at 07:35:00 CDT
Investors are back in full risk-on mode.

By early October, stocks had been mired in the longest pullback in over 200 days, finally ending some long momentum streaks, and risk appetite was declining fast. For the first time since the pandemic, the Risk-On/Risk-Off Indicator fell below 50% on consecutive days.

None of those were cause for concern. Historically, buyers have returned quickly after momentum and risk-taking behavior had been so strong, for so long.

Now that stocks have rallied again, investors are back in risk-on mode, in a big way. Speculation in options has ramped up, there is little fear of a November pullback, and almost all core indicators are showing risk-seeking behavior. More than 95% of indicators showed a risk-on attitude by late last week though that's ticked down a tad since then.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-dda2e6977d-1271291994

 

[robo]

We shall see!

VTI daily: The Total stock trend remains up!


SevenSentinels Retweeted
David Brady
@GlobalProTrader
·
9h
The #Fed is expected to announce its taper of #QE tomorrow. If so, this is the beginning of the worst policy error ever, akin to the Fed raising rates in 1929. Don't expect an immediate crash in stocks, the PPT may step in for now, but I give it a few months "at most".
Quote Tweet
David Brady
@GlobalProTrader
· 9h
We're almost there! I've been emphatic since April 2020 that the supply chain issues would become more pervasive worldwide and that more money printed out of thin air meant more paper dollar chasing fewer goods and services which would create #hyperstagflation.

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

VTI/SPY daily charts: It's amazing to me that some continue to short the current trend. I follow two of them and they have been short for sometime now! I have SPXU on the bottom chart chart below because one of these Bears has a position of SPXU. I like to use SSO and SDS in one of my trading accounts. The current position is SSO and I use stops close to the 10 sma.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up and good luck trying to pick a top in this market.

 

[Bullitt]

Sy Harding used to consider November the start of the best six months indicator.

 

[robo]

SPY weekly: The move up continues. The SPY tagged and is now above the upper BB on the weekly chart. I would expect a short-term pull back or some sideways action in the next 2 weeks, and then a move down closer to the 10 week sma. LOL..... However, that is just a guess based on the weekly patterns on the chart. A move above the upper BB is normally a top in the short-term. But in this market one never knows. We shall see how the next DCL plays out. ( DCL = Daily Cycle Low)

Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up, and it has been a very nice run. I'm still tracking a few that are trying to short this BULL BEAST and are probably getting tossed out of their positions. Is there any Bear Riders left?

 

[robo]

Sy Harding used to consider November the start of the best six months indicator.

This is like NO NOVEMBER ever seen before...... This market looks to continue to hit new extremes.

 

[robo]

Welcome extreme greed
From extreme fear to extreme greed.

Markets don't crash on fear. Let's see if we can get even more extreme greed from here?

https://themarketear.com/

The everything ATH market
Freshly updated Fed balance sheet and the SPX.

Is SPX getting a bit ahead of itself, or is seasonality the only thing to care about?

MOVE refuses easing much
Bond volatility stays at elevated levels. The gap vs VIX remains wide, but note it actually managed shrinking small today as equity protection stayed relatively well bid...despite equities squeezing higher.

VIX daily: Still watching the pattern after moving below 15ish.

 

[robo]

NAAIM weekly updated chart: RSI5 = 97.65 / NAAIM increased to 107.99

Keep in mind:

NAAIM Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members.

The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.

It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and to stay in tune with what the market is doing at any given time. As the name indicates, the NAAIM Exposure Index provides insight into the actual adjustments active risk managers have made to client accounts over the past two weeks. We shall see how the TSP poll plays out.



https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

 

[robo]

LOL..... Not that any of this data even matters any more:

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

Some monthly data to look over: The first chart was hard to read so I split it up so you can see it better. The point is folks have NO FEAR as we head into November and the next best months for being long stocks. Unless we are heading into another 1929..... LOL I know, NO WAY.

 

[robo]

LOL.... No way this is 1929.... That is true. This is 2021, BUT this market is in a bigger bubble then the 1929 Bubble. Not that most even care.

Bottom Line: The Trend remains up and the monthly is tracking nicely above the 10 sma on the monthly chart. Where folks get into trouble is buying to early after the first sell signal. Bid you buy to early and to much during the last 40% sell off. One should wait for the turn on the weekly..... I like to wait for a move back above the 3 ema on the weekly chart using VTI. However, that is how my system works and there are many others and I'm sure some are better. I use the KISS system. I really don't care if the market goes down since I trade both ways, but I still think the current market is more overvalued then 1929 market. There are other extreme indicators that all should be watching right now, but I doubt many are.

I make NO predictions about the future and for NOW my system remains on a hold long positions, but at a reduce position size.

A note from Kaplan about one of the extreme indicators he tracks.

It's going to be a long road down.


Recent U.S. fund inflows have been approaching or surpassing their highest-ever levels and that's by 2021 standards where we have had more intense inflows during the past 12-month period than the entire previous 50 years combined according to my calculations; I am looking for a reliable source to verify this data. Mega-cap index funds like QQQ are nearly at four times fair value according to their earnings and projected profit growth.


True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian

14h
we have had more intense inflows into the market during the past 12-month period than the entire previous 50 YEARS COMBINED according to my calculations; I am looking for a reliable source to verify this data.
https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

VTI daily ( The Total Stock Market): Another gap up as we just started "Free Lunch Friday" as we head into the best 6 months.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up and this has been a very nice run.

SPY daily: Remains in a uptrend!

 

[robo]

Remember puts?
Put hate is becoming stronger each day. The upside crash is the new crash people are "hedging".

Let's see how this plays out from here, but such extreme put hate should be noted...especially as it truly feels we can never go down again.

 

[robo]

Bullish or bearish, but make sure to watch this one...
NASDAQ in full melt up mode and NASDAQ vol, VXN, rising as well. Add to it the fact it is a Friday and you understand how well bid protection is.

Make sure to watch this "relationship" carefully.

Last time we saw similar behavior was during the late stage of the 2020 summer tech squeeze just before the sector tanked. This time things aren't as extreme, but watch VXN closely anyway.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
So, "smart money" hedgers have made some big moves, very quickly.

They're now net short about $79 billion worth of major equity index futures, a record.

And they're long more than 600,000 contracts in 10-year Treasuries, the most in 3 years.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1456717377773711364?mc_cid=311599fccb&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0

 

[robo]

Latest COT report: A couple of things I watch. Hmmmm......

 

[robo]

The 11/06/21 Weekend Report Preview


Stocks continued higher on this week.

The new high on day 24 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The decline into the ICL stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. Stocks are delivering bullish follow through on the breakout of the 4545.85 level. This could trigger a melt-up phase. I suspect that a daily cycle decline will back test the breakout level before the we see the melt-up phase.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/11/06/the-11-06-21-weekend-report-preview/

 

[robo]

VTI and SPY daily: The trend remains up.....