Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

You think! I say very low right now.....

Realized Volatility Is Low
S&P 500 5-day realized volatility is below its 10th percentile since 1970. S&P 500 5-day realized volatility since 1970.
https://themarketear.com/

SPY daily: Day 10 since my buy signal.....


Good trading!

 

[robo]

VIX daily: I'm watching it closely too..... We shall see how this move below 15ish plays out in the days ahead. LOL..... Who needs protection......


Watching VIX Closely
It's been a while since we saw both SPX and VIX move higher in tandem.Note the move higher in both earlier today.

Second chart shows the slightly longer term gap between SPX and VIX inverted we have been pointing out over the past weeks. On the way up VIX was the "leader".

VIX has reached the "natural floor" and has not been willing to move much lower from here.

The relevant question to ask yourself here is how much can VIX move lower vs how much can it move higher (as well as do you need protection or not)....
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Bullish Expectations
Posted on October 26, 2021

Stocks closed again at all time highs.

Stocks are in the first daily cycle for a new intermediate cycle. The first daily cycle typically forms as a right translated daily cycle that often peaks on or after day 30. Right now stocks are getting a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Stops should be honored if stocks break below the previous daily cycle high of 4545.85, Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/10/26/expectations/

 

[robo]

LOL.....

Risks, A Few, But Then Again, Too Few To Mention...
Markets will probably never go down again in our life-time. Stocks have of course reached a permanently high plateau. You know the drill...However, at fresh all-time-highs it is always prudent to re-visit the "risks" to the market. Please see a quick run-down of what the consensus risks to the equity bull are right now.

https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

VIX daily: Will it be different this time? Big money spending in DC might make a difference. The news cycle seems to indicate it will pass soon. I think stocks are also now pricing in the New Deal!

When the VIX has moved close to or under 15ish we have gotten a spike in the weeks ahead. We shall see how this move below 15 plays out.

We shall see about the data below..... Breath remains negative as we grind higher.


SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

1h
Wednesday 12:00

SS LOLR STS
Up Down Down
7/0 0/7 0/7

Breadth -1200/-1500

NYSE McO: +3
NASDAQ McO: +1
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

Not something I use or track, but Jessie does.....

Stonks: The Canary In The Stock Market Coal Mine

jessefelder
October 27, 2021 I’ll be watching this new index to see if it can make a lower low, as that might indicate a downtrend is underway. And, considering they could represent the canary in the bull market coal mine, a bear market in stonks could have important implications for stocks in a broader sense.

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/27/stonks-the-canary-in-the-stock-market-coal-mine/

 

[Bullitt]

Not something I use or track, but Jessie does.....

ETF - BUZZ is VanEck Social Sentiment ETF and probably comes close.

Holdings updated daily here: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/social-sentiment-etf-buzz/holdings/

 

[robo]

SPY daily: A move below the 3 ema is a ST sell signal for me. We shall see how it plays out.


SPX Loves Making Local Highs With These Candle Formations
SPX loves topping out with a shooting star/doji followed by a confirmation candle lower. That is exactly what we have seen develop over past 2 sessions.

Let's see how this plays out, but with various cross assets moving in an erratic fashion, why not some stress in SPX?

After all, everybody believes in the seasonality melt up...
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Never Forget - This Inflow Streak Cannot Be Repeated
Global Equities logged >$1 Trillion dollars worth of inflows during the last 51 weeks and the start of positive vaccine news. This is the biggest market structure dynamic of the year. For context, the prior best rolling 51 week record was +$250 Billion. 2021 is 4x larger than the next best yearly inflow.

 

[robo]

SPY daily: Back above the 3 ema..... we shall see how we close today...... Maybe this is just a small pullback as the 10 sma on the daily tries to catch up....

 

[robo]

Hmmmm.... Not an indicator I would use, but interesting for sure. LOL..... Granddaddy.....I haven't heard that word in sometime.....


This Granddaddy of All Indicators Just Broke Out
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-10-28 at 07:35:00 CDT
Earlier this week, the Advance/Decline Line for S&P 500 stocks broke out to a new high. A line that incorporates the breadth of all securities traded on the NYSE hadn't quite done the same. Now it has.

For the first time in more than 90 days, the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line is sitting at a record high. Analysts have focused on this indicator since the earliest days of widespread data dissemination.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-8179e15bb9-1271291994

 

[tsptalk]

Robo is a rock star and a must read! Thanks!!

 

[robo]

Ok, I checked the data out based on this tweet below, and made a chart to look over. It COULD be a leading indicator. We shall see how it plays out! You can look at my chart below and decided for yourself. I DO NOT use this data for trading, but thought it was worth a look.

Daily SPY/NAAIM data chart: Hmmmmmm..... folks are feeling good for sure. RSI over 95ish and NAAIM over 103..... LOL..... That doesn't mean it can't go higher based on my chart below, but the RSI is getting extreme with the NAAIM over a 100.

Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up as it hits new ATHs!

SevenSentinels Retweeted
Helene Meisler
@hmeisler
·
2h
NAAIM Exposure 103. First time over 100 since the spring.

Yep, folks feeling good.

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

Keeping an eye on the VIX

VIX 30 minute data: Higher lows? Still tracking the move under 15ish....

 

[robo]

SPY daily: The trend is up, and Greed is good!

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

After breaking out to new all time highs on Tuesday, stocks backtested the breakout level on Wednesday.

After emerging from the ICL stocks have begun closing above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/stocks-deliver-buy-signal-2/

 

[robo]

Some tweets that make you go hmmmmm......

Inflation Inflation Everywhere
The inflation data-points just keep on coming in with many charts look extreme. We wanted to do a thread on the most recent ones. The "call for inflation" is very strong and also very consensual. However, do not forget that some experts still believe in "transitory". For example, declines in durable goods prices are likely to drive inflation lower next year, more than offsetting a sharp acceleration in shelter inflation. Time for a thread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link

See new Tweets
Conversation
Nautilus Research
@NautilusCap
S&P Earnings Yield - Inflation (CPI YoY.)


xTrends
@xtrends

Oct 29
$SPX tagged 4600 and correlation between $SPX and $VVIX is rising with $SPX as I predicted. After a little more upside the market will likely start to correct.... could be a big swoon like Sep 2020 because there was no washout at Oct low. I will start selling longs soon

 

[robo]

For those that track this data... It is explained at the link below, and I created a chart that I will update weekly.

For the record: I DO NOT use this data for trading, but another data point I track. However, the data indicates the odds are high for a ST pullback in the weeks ahead. RSI 5 over 95ish and NAAIM over 103ish.... It only happened 2 other times on this chart and all resulted in a ST pullback. This is will be the 3rd time on this chart and we shall see how it plays out. In this market it will probably a time to add shares back if you reduced like I did moving up and making new ATH's.... I look for "extremes" when making charts up based on sentiment.

NAAIM Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members.

The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.

It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and to stay in tune with what the market is doing at any given time. As the name indicates, the NAAIM Exposure Index provides insight into the actual adjustments active risk managers have made to client accounts over the past two weeks.
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

 

[robo]

The Fed is not the only Big Buyer.......

Buybacks Just Passed One Trillion
YTD buyback authorizations are over $1 trillion. A lot of buying every day...
https://themarketear.com/

The Fed Could Still Be Reinvesting $50-60bn/Mo After Tapering
Fed monthly MBS reinvestment needs by rate scenario (base case follows forward curve), $bn

 

[robo]

SPY daily: "Easy Money Monday" and the first day of the month and we should get another nice gap up at the open.

Hmmm......

Ship Ahoy
96 ships are waiting outside LA/LB vs. 109 the previous week. Chart shows number of ships anchored at ports of LA/LB.

Anchored
Overall, 37% of the global containership fleet is tied up in ports.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

This should bring in some more buyers. I'm tracking a couple of guys that think we are close to a huge pull-back, but they have been wrong for sometime now!

An 85% Chance That Stocks Won't Suffer a Pullback
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-11-01 at 07:30:00 CDT
It is not a secret that the 4th quarter tends to be good for stock market investors, particularly beginning in late October. Jay examined one specific period and measured the results.

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for the S&P 500 Index.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-968d3ce474-1271291994