Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Birchtree said:
I remember those statements - but as usual no fear then or now I will however try and buy this market all day long tomorrow if my buying power is available. I'm so ready to bury myself in debt while interest are still low. The leverage is what I'm after... everyone is winding down their debt, but not me. This could be very profitable going forward.
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You have done very well riding this Bull and it has been a tough ride.

Good trading to you next year also.

Take Care!

Robo
 
A Comparison to Consider

Let me preface this by saying that my bear mojo has been almost completely drained from my veins at this point. The best positions I have are all long ones, and after 20+ months of hearing (and repeating) Why The Drop Is Going To Start Now, I'm getting close to just focusing on the long side. Call it capitulation if you like; I think I'm past caring.

Having said that, I humbly offer up this interesting comparison between the market top in 2008:

http://slopeofhope.com/2010/12/a-comparison-to-consider.html
 
Birchtree said:
Robo,

It's never easy being a buy and hold investor but it sure has its' merits.
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It has been the correct move this year in my opinion.....Buy and hold is the correct positon to have during a Bull Market, but I thought the Bull was dead many times this year. Ha...incorrect I'm afraid....the Bull lives on for now.


Take Care!
 
robo said:
Poooor Bears!

Help Me! I’m Trapped in my Richard Russell Bunker!
Joshua M BrownOctober 14th, 2010

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/10/14/help-me-im-trapped-in-my-richard-russell-bunker/
Click to expand...

The comments provided a VERY interesting link...
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/10/14_James_Turk_-_Gold,_Silver_%26_What_Bulls_Dream_About.html

James Turk - Gold, Silver & What Bulls Dream About
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Monday, December 6, 2010

Put Him In The Bathroom

"Well, this fear of inflation is way overstated. One myth that's out there is we're printing money. We're not printing money. "
- Ben Bernake in his 60 Minutes interview

Bernanke said he is “100 percent” confident that, when necessary, the central bank can control inflation and reverse its accommodative monetary policy.
-Bloomberg News


After being wrong about every major macroeconomic forecast he has made since becoming head of the Fed, Ben Bernanke has not lost much confidence in his forecasting abilities. He is 100% certain that inflation won't be a problem. He must believe he is due to be right after saying that housing wasn't a bubble, that subprime was contained, that the credit crisis was contained, etc. After all nobody can be that wrong, that often.

http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/2010/12/put-him-in-bathroom.html
 
7 December 2010 by TPC

DON’T FIGHT THE FED?

Since the first cut in the Fed funds rate on September 18, 2007 …

■The S&P 500 has gone from 1,520 to 1,223.
■The unemployment rate has gone from 4.7% to 9.8%.
■Industry capacity utilization rates have gone from 81.5% to below 75%.
■The 10-year note yield has gone from 4.5% to below 3%.
■Housing starts have gone from 1.183 million units to 0.519 million.
■Median real estate values have gone from $210,500 to $170,500.
■Core inflation has gone from 2.1% to 0.6%.
Well done!

http://pragcap.com/dont-fight-the-fed
 
Retail Option Traders Go On Call Buying Frenzy (Again)

Posted on December 6, 2010 by tradersnarrative
The last time that we saw retail option traders, as measured by the ISE Sentiment index, being this bullish was a few months ago, in mid April 2010: Today it is the Retail Option Trader’s Turn to go Crazy. That was the crescendo to the binge buying of calls earlier in

April: Option Traders Go on Call Buying Binge.

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.c...ption-traders-go-on-call-buying-frenzy-again/
 
I don't agree with all Paul's reasons, but most are right on target in my opinion!

Robo



Paul Farrell's 10 Reasons Not To Buy Stocks Until After The Next Market Crash

Paul Farrell lights it up in his latest market commentary, which puts even some of the more hard-core realists out there to shame: "Wall Street is a loser. Stocks are Wall Street’s ultimate sucker bet. And it’ll sucker you again. You’ll lose, worse than in the last decade. Wake up before Wall Street banks trigger the next meltdown, igniting mass bankruptcy." Um, wow. And seeing how we have been saying that only absolutely immaculate top tickers should be in this market, we agree wholeheartedly with Farrel.

And here are his 10 reasons to stay away until after the next crash, via Market Watch.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pa...-not-buy-stocks-until-after-next-market-crash
 
A true contrarian look at investing and at life in general.
Back Issue List

Updated @ 8:45 p.m. EST, Sunday, December 5, 2010.

The worst bubble is a real-estate bubble, since so many people buy real estate and so many do it using borrowed money. --Steven Jon Kaplan


FAR TOO MANY INVESTORS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF REAL-ESTATE BUBBLES (December 5, 2010): Three years ago, we had about 1-1/2 billion of the world's population living with real-estate bubbles. When those bubbles collapsed, as all bubbles inevitably do, they caused massive problems for all risk assets. Without the collapse of the U.S. real-estate bubble, for example, there would have been no bankruptcy for Lehman Brothers, and the bear market of 2007-2009 would have surely been far less severe instead of the S&P 500 losing 57.7% of its peak valuation. Fast forward to today, when 4-1/2 billion of the world's population is experiencing real-estate bubbles. This includes all of the most populous countries such as China, India, Brazil, and many other places such as Malaysia, Canada, Australia, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. In fact, there are more countries today with real-estate bubbles than without, which is the first time in history that such an event has occurred. What is even more amazing than the presence of these bubbles is their intensity; many countries have housing prices which are near three times fair value by historic norms, as compared with just over twice fair value in the United States at the 2005-2006 peak [as measured by the Case-Shiller index at 206]. This puts these bubbles on a par with where Ireland had been four years ago, and we know what has happened with Ireland since then. Many emerging-market countries which had nothing directly to do with the U.S. real-estate bubble lost 70% or more of their equity valuations during the last bear market; when their own real-estate bubbles pop, it isn't likely that the results will be less severe. Very few analysts have been discussing the potential negative impact of this massive overvaluation for global housing prices, thereby likely creating a true surprise when it occurs. As forecasts for double-digit growth in China and elsewhere have to be revised sharply lower, we are almost certain to experience an approximate repeat of the last bear market.


http://truecontrarian.com/
 
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